Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

March 16, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.48 7.35 -0.90
Bristol 3.93 1.28 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.13 4.96 -1.80
Harlequins 2.62 -1.08 3.70
Wasps -0.55 5.66 -6.20
Northampton Saints -1.11 -2.48 1.40
Bath -1.78 2.14 -3.90
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -6.14 1.90
London Irish -5.01 -8.05 3.00
Worcester Warriors -6.63 -5.71 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -6.93 -10.00 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 37 – 20 7.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 21 – 20 9.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 14 – 20 7.00 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 20 – 17 6.70 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 19 – 38 1.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 17 – 14 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 21 Bath 9.40
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 Exeter Chiefs 15.20
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 21 Harlequins 10.20
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Mar 21 Wasps -1.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 21 Bristol -0.50
6 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 21 Sale Sharks 12.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.65 16.52 0.10
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 8.13 4.58 3.50
Edinburgh 4.58 5.49 -0.90
Glasgow Warriors 2.63 5.66 -3.00
Connacht 2.52 0.70 1.80
Scarlets 0.55 1.98 -1.40
Cardiff Blues 0.06 0.08 -0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.73 -2.82 1.10
Treviso -7.15 -3.50 -3.60
Dragons -7.21 -7.85 0.60
Zebre -13.85 -15.37 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 31 – 48 -25.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 30 – 25 12.10 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 28 – 10 15.70 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 14 – 15 5.60 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 22 – 26 -9.90 TRUE
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 14 – 29 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso Mar 20 Munster 23.90
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Mar 20 Leinster 24.90
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Mar 20 Ulster 28.50
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -3.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 2.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Mar 23 Scarlets 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.35 14.53 -0.20
Roosters 12.29 10.25 2.00
Panthers 9.26 8.88 0.40
Rabbitohs 7.91 7.73 0.20
Raiders 7.43 6.98 0.50
Eels 1.50 1.68 -0.20
Sharks 0.37 -0.76 1.10
Warriors -1.15 -1.84 0.70
Knights -1.89 -2.61 0.70
Wests Tigers -3.53 -3.07 -0.50
Dragons -6.08 -4.95 -1.10
Sea Eagles -6.81 -4.77 -2.00
Titans -7.91 -7.22 -0.70
Bulldogs -8.34 -7.62 -0.70
Cowboys -8.43 -8.05 -0.40
Broncos -10.97 -11.16 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 26 – 18 9.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 32 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 16 – 24 -9.80 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 13 19 – 6 5.40 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 13 46 – 4 18.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Mar 13 24 – 0 19.90 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 14 30 – 12 13.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 14 18 – 32 -1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 18 Storm -9.90
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 19 Warriors 0.70
3 Titans vs. Broncos Mar 19 Titans 6.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -14.60
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -11.70
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 20 Cowboys 0.70
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -12.80
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -4.10

 

March 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.91 4.80 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 6.67 3.22 3.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.08 6.21 -0.10
La Rochelle 5.71 2.32 3.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.06 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.98 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.41 3.56 -0.20
Montpellier 1.38 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.64 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.06 -0.47 -0.60
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.69 -4.48 0.80
Aviron Bayonnais -7.19 -4.13 -3.10
SU Agen -13.96 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 20 – 28 -4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 29 – 23 13.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 22 – 15 -0.80 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 22 – 16 0.70 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 25 – 21 1.60 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 40 – 21 18.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 42 – 17 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Mar 14 Aviron Bayonnais 12.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

If you happen to check back on my predictions for Week 3 you will see a different margin for the Brumbies against the Rebels, though still a win for the Brumbies. I had that game as a home game for the Rebels. I think it might have been switched because of Covid. The return game on April 18 seems to have been switched also. Super Rugby has it as a home game for the Rebels while some other sites still have it as home for the Brumbies.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.96 14.49 0.50
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.28 7.13 -0.80
Chiefs 3.63 4.38 -0.70
Highlanders 3.18 2.70 0.50
Brumbies 2.53 1.47 1.10
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -2.82 -3.51 0.70
Waratahs -7.39 -5.02 -2.40
Western Force -12.78 -13.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 23 – 39 7.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 16 – 20 12.00 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 33 – 16 13.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Mar 06 27 – 24 11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Force vs. Rebels Mar 12 Rebels -4.50
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 13 Crusaders 16.80
3 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 13 Brumbies 6.10
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Blues 10.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.97 7.35 -0.40
Bristol 3.41 1.28 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.39 4.96 -1.60
Harlequins 2.13 -1.08 3.20
Wasps -0.03 5.66 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.37 -2.48 1.10
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Bath -2.82 2.14 -5.00
London Irish -4.71 -8.05 3.30
Leicester Tigers -4.90 -6.14 1.20
Newcastle Falcons -5.89 -10.00 4.10
Worcester Warriors -6.93 -5.71 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 16 – 38 -3.40 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 37 – 19 6.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 33 – 32 4.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 31 – 16 13.60 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 19 – 20 7.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 23 – 24 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Mar 13 Bristol 7.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Exeter Chiefs 9.30
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 14 Gloucester 7.00
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 15 London Irish 6.70
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Mar 14 Newcastle Falcons 1.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Mar 14 Sale Sharks -0.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.42 16.52 0.90
Munster 10.00 9.90 0.10
Ulster 8.66 4.58 4.10
Edinburgh 3.98 5.49 -1.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.28 5.66 -2.40
Connacht 3.11 0.70 2.40
Scarlets 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.55 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -2.37 -2.82 0.40
Treviso -6.53 -3.50 -3.00
Dragons -7.74 -7.85 0.10
Zebre -14.62 -15.37 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Connacht Mar 06 20 – 17 12.80 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 07 20 – 31 -11.50 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 07 20 – 31 12.00 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 07 19 – 38 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -25.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Mar 13 Glasgow Warriors 12.10
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 13 Munster 15.70
4 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 14 Connacht 5.60
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 14 Ulster -9.90
6 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Mar 15 Treviso 0.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

I have decided to not give home ground advantage to the Warriors for any games played at their Australian base on the Central Coast of New South Wales. I will treat all those games as being played on neutral ground.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.53 14.53 -0.00
Roosters 10.25 10.25 0.00
Panthers 8.88 8.88 0.00
Rabbitohs 7.73 7.73 -0.00
Raiders 6.98 6.98 0.00
Eels 1.68 1.68 -0.00
Sharks -0.76 -0.76 0.00
Warriors -1.84 -1.84 0.00
Knights -2.61 -2.61 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.07 -3.07 -0.00
Sea Eagles -4.77 -4.77 -0.00
Dragons -4.95 -4.95 0.00
Titans -7.22 -7.22 0.00
Bulldogs -7.62 -7.62 -0.00
Cowboys -8.05 -8.05 -0.00
Broncos -11.16 -11.16 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 Storm 9.80
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 Knights 8.00
3 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 Eels -9.80
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 13 Warriors 5.40
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 13 Roosters 18.00
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Mar 13 Panthers 19.90
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 14 Raiders 13.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 14 Sharks -1.20

 

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March 2, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

I apparently missed another rescheduled game. The prediction is given below for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.56 4.80 3.80
Clermont Auvergne 7.03 3.22 3.80
Racing-Metro 92 6.26 6.21 0.00
La Rochelle 6.25 2.32 3.90
Bordeaux-Begles 4.58 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 3.70 5.61 -1.90
RC Toulonnais 3.25 3.56 -0.30
Montpellier 1.01 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.71 -3.22 2.50
Castres Olympique -1.58 -0.47 -1.10
Brive -2.78 -3.26 0.50
Section Paloise -4.19 -4.48 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -6.91 -4.13 -2.80
SU Agen -13.90 -4.72 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 27 14 – 16 14.90 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 28 11 – 14 4.50 FALSE
3 SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 28 16 – 52 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 07 Lyon Rugby -4.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 07 Bordeaux-Begles 13.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Mar 07 La Rochelle -0.80
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 06 Montpellier 0.70
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 07 RC Toulonnais 1.60
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen Mar 07 Stade Francais Paris 18.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Mar 07 Stade Toulousain 16.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

My automatic updating of scores failed, sorry. Correct results now I hope.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.76 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.47 7.13 -0.70
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Brumbies 2.86 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.43 2.70 -0.30
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -3.16 -3.51 0.40
Waratahs -6.83 -5.02 -1.80
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 13 – 26 -6.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 23 – 21 11.30 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 16 – 31 4.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 61 – 10 13.00 TRUE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 Chiefs 7.50
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 Waratahs 12.00
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Crusaders 13.80
4 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 06 Brumbies -0.50

 

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