Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

February 23, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 2.30 1.59 0.70
Brumbies 1.76 1.47 0.30
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.73 -5.02 -0.70
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 41 – 7 12.10 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 11 – 27 -9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 Crusaders -6.30
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 Reds 11.30
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 Hurricanes 4.80
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 Brumbies 13.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

I was a bit unsure as to how to deal with Super Rugby this year but will treat it as one competition not separate Australian and New Zealand competitions followed by a joint competition. I will give predictions each week rather than by the designated rounds. Predictions are based on all games played last year in either the initial Super Rugby competition and then the separate country competitions. I am not sure how that will work for the combined competition due to start in May.

This forecast is obviously after the fact but I decided to publish it for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 1.59 1.59 -0.00
Brumbies 1.47 1.47 -0.00
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.02 -5.02 0.00
Western Force -13.05 -13.05 -0.00

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 Reds 12.10
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 Brumbies -9.00

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.31 7.35 -1.00
Bristol 3.64 1.28 2.40
Sale Sharks 2.97 4.96 -2.00
Harlequins 1.90 -1.08 3.00
Wasps 1.40 5.66 -4.30
Northampton Saints -0.30 -2.48 2.20
Bath -2.30 2.14 -4.40
Gloucester -2.77 -1.02 -1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.47 -6.14 1.70
London Irish -5.95 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 16 – 14 5.50 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 12 – 13 12.60 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 24 – 12 2.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 27 – 8 -3.60 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 34 – 34 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 28 Bristol 12.60
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 28 Gloucester 9.10
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Feb 28 Harlequins -3.60
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 01 Northampton Saints 6.50
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 Sale Sharks 1.20
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Feb 28 Wasps 11.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.60 16.52 1.10
Munster 10.72 9.90 0.80
Ulster 9.67 4.58 5.10
Edinburgh 3.52 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 2.50 5.66 -3.20
Connacht 1.98 0.70 1.30
Scarlets 1.21 1.98 -0.80
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.83 0.08 -0.90
Ospreys -1.93 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.84 -3.50 -2.30
Dragons -8.05 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.17 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 29 – 35 -20.30 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 13 – 19 0.50 FALSE
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 41 – 17 12.60 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 10 – 0 20.70 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 32 – 17 8.10 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 10 – 22 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Connacht Feb 27 Connacht -1.30
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Feb 27 Munster -5.00
3 Ulster vs. Ospreys Feb 27 Ulster 18.10
4 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 Edinburgh 8.80
5 Zebre vs. Dragons Feb 28 Dragons -0.60
6 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 01 Leinster 21.60

 

February 16, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.62 4.80 3.80
La Rochelle 7.28 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.67 6.21 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 4.90 2.83 2.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 3.22 1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.53 3.56 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 3.18 5.61 -2.40
Montpellier 0.55 2.30 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -1.20 -3.22 2.00
Castres Olympique -2.04 -0.47 -1.60
Brive -3.08 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -4.00 -4.48 0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -6.03 -4.13 -1.90
SU Agen -12.65 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Feb 15 26 – 23 3.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 14 44 – 6 9.00 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Feb 14 48 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 14 34 – 26 10.00 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Feb 15 11 – 29 3.30 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 31 – 9 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 22 Bordeaux-Begles -2.50
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 21 Clermont Auvergne 14.80
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 21 La Rochelle 12.90
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 22 Lyon Rugby 0.90
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 20 Racing-Metro 92 13.70
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 21 RC Toulonnais -1.20
7 SU Agen vs. Montpellier Feb 21 Montpellier -6.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.05 7.35 -0.30
Bristol 4.00 1.28 2.70
Sale Sharks 3.52 4.96 -1.40
Wasps 2.54 5.66 -3.10
Harlequins 1.35 -1.08 2.40
Northampton Saints -1.04 -2.48 1.40
Bath -2.01 2.14 -4.10
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -5.61 -6.14 0.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
London Irish -6.31 -8.05 1.70
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Feb 14 26 – 3 17.10 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Feb 13 17 – 18 -2.80 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 14 37 – 24 11.20 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Feb 13 22 – 27 11.80 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Feb 15 13 – 17 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 Bath 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 Exeter Chiefs 12.60
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 Harlequins 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 Wasps -3.60
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 Bristol -5.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 21 Worcester Warriors 3.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

More weird stuff this week. A game that was previously listed as Round 12 is now listed as Round 14. Also because the game scheduled for last week was not played, my last week results refer to the previous week for which I have already published the result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 0.71 1.98 -1.30
Cardiff Blues -0.20 0.08 -0.30
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 Leinster -20.30
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 Glasgow Warriors 0.50
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 Scarlets 12.60
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 Ospreys 20.70
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 Connacht 8.10
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 Edinburgh 0.30

 

February 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.18 4.80 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.78 6.21 0.60
La Rochelle 6.61 2.32 4.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.83 3.22 1.60
RC Toulonnais 4.23 3.56 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 4.05 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.07 5.61 -2.50
Montpellier 1.40 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.33 -3.22 2.90
Castres Olympique -2.90 -0.47 -2.40
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.57 -4.48 0.90
Aviron Bayonnais -6.00 -4.13 -1.90
SU Agen -12.66 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 109 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 07 31 – 6 9.40 TRUE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 06 26 – 18 4.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 08 31 – 21 8.10 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Feb 08 26 – 22 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Feb 15 Aviron Bayonnais 3.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 14 Bordeaux-Begles 9.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Feb 14 Castres Olympique 1.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 14 Racing-Metro 92 10.00
5 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Feb 15 RC Toulonnais 3.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 Stade Toulousain 15.60
7 SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 14 Clermont Auvergne -9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.69 7.35 -0.70
Sale Sharks 4.40 4.96 -0.60
Bristol 4.15 1.28 2.90
Wasps 2.67 5.66 -3.00
Harlequins 1.21 -1.08 2.30
Northampton Saints -1.04 -2.48 1.40
Bath -2.89 2.14 -5.00
Gloucester -3.20 -1.02 -2.20
Leicester Tigers -5.46 -6.14 0.70
London Irish -5.95 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Worcester Warriors -7.49 -5.71 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 07 15 – 28 2.00 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Feb 07 13 – 20 5.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 07 41 – 24 5.20 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 07 32 – 26 1.10 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 07 9 – 15 -8.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Feb 07 17 – 22 9.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Feb 14 Exeter Chiefs 17.10
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Feb 13 Bristol -2.80
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 14 Harlequins 11.20
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 14 Northampton Saints 9.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Feb 13 Sale Sharks 11.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Feb 15 Wasps -5.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 1.16 1.98 -0.80
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.65 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Feb 13 Edinburgh -6.90
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso Feb 14 Glasgow Warriors 14.90

 

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