Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

November 24, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.16 6.16 -0.00
Sharks 5.63 5.63 -0.00
Western Province 5.26 5.26 -0.00
Lions 1.46 1.46 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -6.66 -6.66 0.00
Griquas -8.90 -8.90 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 Sharks 16.80
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 Lions -5.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 Western Province 3.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

So this year it is a constant battle to keep up with changes to schedules and I lost a skirmish last week with details of the postponed games. The predictions for last week are what I would have given if I had the match details correct.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.90 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.80 6.21 -0.40
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.58 2.32 2.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.27 3.22 1.10
RC Toulonnais 3.87 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.90 2.83 0.10
Montpellier 2.13 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.50 -3.22 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.78 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.56 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.37 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.53 -4.13 -0.40
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 22 26 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 9 – 6 0.80 TRUE
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 35 – 29 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -0.60
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 La Rochelle 14.50
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Lyon Rugby 11.90
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Montpellier 4.70
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 15.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 12.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 19.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.62 7.35 1.30
Wasps 5.30 5.66 -0.40
Sale Sharks 4.73 4.96 -0.20
Bristol 1.65 1.28 0.40
Bath 0.96 2.14 -1.20
Gloucester -2.20 -1.02 -1.20
Northampton Saints -2.25 -2.48 0.20
Harlequins -2.36 -1.08 -1.30
Leicester Tigers -4.96 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -6.07 -5.71 -0.40
London Irish -7.69 -8.05 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -8.82 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 3 – 33 -3.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 32 – 23 11.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 12 – 19 16.60 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 38 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 11 – 10 6.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 23 – 20 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Sale Sharks -9.00
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 Bristol 12.20
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 Exeter Chiefs 12.20
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 Wasps -3.00
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 London Irish 1.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 9.63 9.90 -0.30
Ulster 6.83 4.58 2.20
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.29 5.66 -2.40
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues 0.10 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -3.91 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.05 -15.37 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 12 – 47 -9.20 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 24 – 22 8.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 40 – 5 24.90 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 26 – 24 12.40 TRUE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 13 – 27 1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 29 Connacht 11.20
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Nov 30 Leinster -11.00
3 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 Cardiff Blues 3.30
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 Treviso 11.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 Edinburgh 4.40
6 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 Munster 32.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.19 6.75 1.40
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.23 0.91 3.30
Waikato 2.02 1.31 0.70
Otago -3.44 -4.03 0.60
Taranaki -4.73 -4.42 -0.30
Northland -5.36 -8.71 3.40
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 19 – 32 7.50 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 23 – 18 10.00 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 59 – 23 8.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 19 – 10 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Nov 27 Hawke’s Bay 12.60
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Nov 28 Tasman -0.80

 

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November 17, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.91 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.90 6.21 -0.30
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.47 2.32 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 4.24 3.22 1.00
RC Toulonnais 4.19 3.56 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 3.17 2.83 0.30
Montpellier 2.12 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.81 -3.22 2.40
Castres Olympique -1.77 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.54 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.32 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.87 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier Nov 14 29 – 20 -2.40 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 14 19 – 23 -4.80 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 14 29 – 30 0.80 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 14 16 – 22 -2.50 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Nov 14 35 – 13 -1.30 FALSE
6 SU Agen vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 14 9 – 38 -6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 La Rochelle 0.80
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 21 Montpellier 7.40
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 RC Toulonnais -2.60
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 22 Clermont Auvergne 3.80

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 1.84 -1.45 3.30
Sharks 1.16 4.01 -2.80
Stormers 0.80 1.00 -0.20
Lions -3.00 -4.82 1.80
Cheetahs -8.14 -10.00 1.90
Pumas -11.27 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -12.65 -10.00 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Nov 13 33 – 34 -10.70 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Nov 14 30 – 13 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Pumas Nov 20 Bulls 17.60
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Nov 21 Cheetahs 9.00
3 Sharks vs. Stormers Nov 21 Sharks 4.90

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.35 7.35 0.00
Wasps 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.96 4.96 -0.00
Bath 2.14 2.14 0.00
Bristol 1.28 1.28 -0.00
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Harlequins -1.08 -1.08 -0.00
Northampton Saints -2.48 -2.48 0.00
Worcester Warriors -5.71 -5.71 0.00
Leicester Tigers -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
London Irish -8.05 -8.05 -0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 Exeter Chiefs -3.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 Sale Sharks 11.90
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 Bath 16.60
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 Gloucester -0.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 Worcester Warriors 6.80
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 Wasps 8.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.93 16.52 2.40
Munster 9.02 9.90 -0.90
Ulster 7.30 4.58 2.70
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.90 5.66 -1.80
Scarlets 1.43 1.98 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.55 0.08 0.50
Connacht 0.54 0.70 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.72 -2.82 0.10
Treviso -4.48 -3.50 -1.00
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.18 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Nov 15 14 – 20 6.70 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Nov 16 38 – 22 18.70 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Ulster Nov 17 14 – 57 -14.10 TRUE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Nov 17 22 – 5 10.30 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 17 50 – 10 19.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 Connacht -9.20
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 Ospreys 8.30
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 Leinster 24.90
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 Ulster 12.40
5 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 24 Edinburgh -7.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 Glasgow Warriors 1.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.58 6.75 1.80
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 2.56 0.91 1.70
Waikato 1.63 1.31 0.30
Otago -2.13 -4.03 1.90
Taranaki -3.06 -4.42 1.40
Northland -6.67 -8.71 2.00
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Nov 13 25 – 17 2.10 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Waikato Nov 14 28 – 17 -7.70 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Tasman Nov 14 20 – 26 -12.00 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Manawatu Nov 14 31 – 5 23.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Nov 15 37 – 33 3.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 15 33 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Auckland Nov 15 34 – 33 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 Otago 7.50
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 Auckland 10.00
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 Hawke’s Bay 8.60
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 Tasman 9.00

 

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