June 9, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.88 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 13.38 12.36 1.00
Crusaders 10.11 8.41 1.70
Blues 6.27 8.91 -2.60
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 66 – 12 12.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 52 – 31 7.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 46 – 24 15.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Chiefs 8.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 Hurricanes 12.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 10.81 5.55 5.30
Bath 10.78 10.30 0.50
Saracens 8.02 5.03 3.00
Northampton Saints 7.05 -1.47 8.50
Exeter Chiefs 6.43 -4.58 11.00
Bristol -0.13 3.66 -3.80
Sale Sharks -2.09 6.70 -8.80
Gloucester -3.20 4.13 -7.30
Harlequins -3.75 -3.02 -0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -26.06 -18.45 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 24 – 22 8.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 32 – 12 2.80 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 54 – 21 29.10 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 38 – 31 -5.80 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 38 – 17 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 Northampton Saints 3.20
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 14 Bath 11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.41 8.77 6.60
Roosters 7.40 9.50 -2.10
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Dolphins 6.45 1.85 4.60
Sharks 5.85 7.25 -1.40
Sea Eagles 5.68 0.21 5.50
Storm 1.61 6.96 -5.30
Rabbitohs -0.86 -5.05 4.20
Broncos -1.87 7.06 -8.90
Cowboys -1.98 -2.69 0.70
Raiders -2.90 1.62 -4.50
Knights -4.00 -14.06 10.10
Bulldogs -4.91 2.13 -7.00
Titans -5.65 -8.02 2.40
Eels -6.37 -0.37 -6.00
Wests Tigers -7.86 -7.26 -0.60
Dragons -12.76 -6.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 28 – 14 9.60 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 32 – 30 11.00 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 0 – 26 -3.20 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 14 – 40 -1.00 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 23 – 28 10.00 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 0 – 68 -21.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 34 – 12 22.80 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 14 – 12 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 11 Rabbitohs 5.00
2 Dolphins vs. Roosters Jun 12 Dolphins 3.00
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 13 Warriors 4.90
4 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 13 Eels 0.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 14 Wests Tigers 1.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.87 26.75 0.10
Fremantle Dockers 24.45 6.56 17.90
Sydney Swans 20.77 0.56 20.20
Hawthorn Hawks 17.69 22.83 -5.10
Brisbane Lions 13.37 26.20 -12.80
Adelaide Crows 12.58 15.32 -2.70
Western Bulldogs 10.87 26.06 -15.20
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Gold Coast Suns 6.55 10.24 -3.70
Collingwood 5.12 11.76 -6.60
Melbourne Demons 1.75 1.64 0.10
St Kilda Saints -0.38 -7.63 7.20
Carlton Blues -2.41 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -10.85 -14.65 3.80
North Melbourne -18.19 -21.71 3.50
Essendon Bombers -28.81 -27.89 -0.90
West Coast Eagles -33.44 -39.36 5.90
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 75 – 74 -4.20 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 71 – 77 9.20 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 31 – 155 -41.80 TRUE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 75 – 106 3.40 FALSE
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 71 – 77 -12.80 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 104 – 102 37.50 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 67 – 72 -30.30 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 75 – 83 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 11 Western Bulldogs 9.30
2 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 12 Geelong Cats 31.30
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 13 Melbourne Demons 30.60
4 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 13 North Melbourne 4.30
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 13 Sydney Swans -20.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 14 Brisbane Lions -53.90
7 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 St Kilda Saints 4.00

 

June 7, 2026

Small, modular?

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I randomly came across a story about a “small modular reactor” startup that was having its first pre-operational test, not ready to generate electricity or anything, just heating up.  This made me think about the recent suggestion that NZ should buy a couple of small modular reactors, as if they were standard off-the-shelf equipment like windmills or ferries. In fact, China has one SMR, Russia has one pair, and lots of people are doing R&D trying to develop them for sale in the future.

RNZ had a story this week, where most of the content was attributed to a spokesperson from “the international organization that promotes nuclear power and supports the companies that comprise the global nuclear industry” (per Wikipedia).  I’m not going to check the whole thing, but I was struck by one statistic

Finland reportedly saw its electricity prices fall 75 percent when its latest nuclear power came online.

This obviously wasn’t a small modular reactor, but also there is no way that could possibly be an honest summary (I suppose the ‘reportedly’ might also have signalled that)

If you follow the link (as RNZ perhaps should have) the headline is Electricity prices in Finland flipped negative — a huge oversupply of clean, hydroelectric power meant suppliers were almost giving it away.  As with similar stories, this is a transient phenomenon. There is no mention at that link of nuclear power.

We can also check with Stats Finland. Here’s the price of electricity from the start of 2023

That does show an apparently important drop in early 2023, which is when the most recent nuclear station went online, but a relatively short-term one. Looking back before 2023 we see

with a big run-up in prices suggesting there might have been other forces affecting Finnish power costs in 2022 that would complicate the pro-nuclear interpretation.

I don’t have a firm opposition to small modular nuclear reactors (I’m not a proper Kiwi), but if they were a good idea you’d think the links would be to documents that actually support the case.

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June 2, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.40 10.30 1.10
Leicester Tigers 10.19 5.55 4.60
Saracens 9.32 5.03 4.30
Northampton Saints 8.04 -1.47 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 5.14 -4.58 9.70
Bristol 1.26 3.66 -2.40
Sale Sharks -3.49 6.70 -10.20
Gloucester -3.60 4.13 -7.70
Harlequins -4.74 -3.02 -1.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -25.66 -18.45 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 21 – 19 -4.40 FALSE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 45 – 42 -18.30 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 36 – 32 21.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 26 – 12 22.40 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 26 – 35 15.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 Bath 8.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs 2.80
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 Gloucester 29.10
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 Northampton Saints -5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 Sale Sharks 2.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.98 11.56 1.40
Stade Rochelais 6.04 1.22 4.80
Montpellier 5.95 -0.21 6.20
Stade Francais 5.01 -2.17 7.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.45 4.78 -0.30
Section Paloise 4.29 2.21 2.10
Racing 92 3.78 1.88 1.90
Clermont 3.12 1.88 1.20
Toulon -0.31 3.49 -3.80
Lyon -0.54 -0.45 -0.10
Castres Olympique -1.15 0.59 -1.70
Bayonne -2.98 1.48 -4.50
USA Perpignan -4.78 -3.37 -1.40
Montauban -22.98 -10.00 -13.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais May 31 15 – 71 -20.40 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise May 31 26 – 18 8.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne May 31 38 – 21 14.10 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon May 31 39 – 31 21.00 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique May 31 29 – 27 3.00 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Jun 01 13 – 41 8.00 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 27 – 22 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 Bayonne 8.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 Bordeaux Begles 7.80
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 Castres Olympique 5.70
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 Lyon 0.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 Stade Toulousain -2.70
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 Section Paloise 33.80
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 Stade Rochelais 7.50

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.94 13.41 -1.50
Bulls 10.79 8.86 1.90
Stormers 6.70 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 6.67 6.18 0.50
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 33 – 21 10.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 45 – 14 14.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 44 – 21 14.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 59 – 10 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 Glasgow 2.90
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 Leinster 12.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 13.08 12.36 0.70
Hurricanes 12.51 8.29 4.20
Crusaders 9.56 8.41 1.10
Blues 6.82 8.91 -2.10
Brumbies 3.28 5.59 -2.30
Reds 0.71 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 47 – 14 -0.30 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 29 45 – 24 12.90 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika May 30 19 – 21 20.20 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues May 30 59 – 34 10.00 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 30 31 – 25 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 Hurricanes 12.70
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 Crusaders 7.70
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 Chiefs 15.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.54 8.77 3.80
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Sharks 5.94 7.25 -1.30
Roosters 5.83 9.50 -3.70
Sea Eagles 5.19 0.21 5.00
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 2.33 6.96 -4.60
Cowboys -0.29 -2.69 2.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Broncos -0.77 7.06 -7.80
Raiders -1.33 1.62 -2.90
Bulldogs -4.42 2.13 -6.50
Knights -4.71 -14.06 9.30
Wests Tigers -4.98 -7.26 2.30
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.86 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -12.84 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 28 – 22 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 28 – 22 6.20 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 22 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 18 – 4 -1.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 26 – 30 19.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 26 – 12 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 20 – 18 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 Sea Eagles 9.60
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 Storm 11.00
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -3.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 Dolphins -1.00
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 Broncos 10.00
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 Panthers -21.50
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 Sharks 22.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 Bulldogs 6.40

 

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