Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

One way not to track vaccine attitudes, which I’ve already covered briefly, is to ask people if some piece of news, such as the rare blood clots with the AZ and J&J vaccine, has made them less likely to get vaccinated.  People who always supported vaccination will say “no”; people who always didn’t will say “yes”.  It’s like if you ask people whether Judith Collins’s speech in Christchurch yesterday made them less likely to vote National. National supporters will say “no”; Labour and Green supporters will  say “yes”, and that’s regardless of whether she actually was in Christchurch or gave a speech.

The Sydney Morning Herald has another way not to do it (via David Hood)

The story says

The exclusive survey, an initiative of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age with research company Resolve Strategic, found vaccine doubts were stronger than in Ipsos polls carried out in February and September, before an official ruling in April about blood clots linked to AstraZeneca doses for people under 50.

It’s possible that’s true, but we’re not given any reason to believe it. We aren’t told what the figures were in February and September, and the new figures exclude the 15% of Australians who are the most likely to get at least one shot of the vaccine, because they already have.

Also, the numbers in the bar chart add up to 64%, with no explanation of where the missing 36% are. Perhaps the 15% already vaccinated are part of that, and the statement about excluding them is untrue. Perhaps 36% said they didn’t know and that wasn’t thought to be worth mentioning. Perhaps they were eaten by drop bears. We can’t tell.

Attitudes to vaccination actually matter, and it’s plausibly a topic where knowing what other people believe will affect your beliefs, so it’s worth doing better than this.

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 58 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.