Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• “We were able to put together a relatively good data set of case numbers for all states, but we were explicitly forbidden to make the data publicly available, even though our data was more accurate than what was appearing in the media.” Rob Hyndman, quoted by the ABC
• Yet another example that counting isn’t simply neutral, from the Wikipedia entry for the Bechdel Test, via depths of wikipedia: “What counts as a character or as a conversation is not defined. For example, the Sir Mix-a-Lot song “Baby Got Back” has been described as passing the Bechdel test, because it begins with a valley girl saying to another “oh my god, Becky, look at her butt”. 
• From the Washington Post: is your name more common for dogs or people? (in the US, of course)
• From the New York Times, estimated carbon emissions by neighbourhood across the USA.
• From David Hood, using the Ministry of Health public data, our holiday Covid wave. Something different seems to have happened in Tarāwhiti, and it seems to have happened at roughly the same time as the Rhythm’N’Vines festival
  

Newshub has a story Map: New Zealand’s murder hotspots revealed.

This is the map

The map (and the text) don’t say what these geographical units are. Based on the context and the presence of “Counties Manukau” as one of them, I would expect them to be police districts: this (just a map, no data) is from the NZ Police website

There’s a few confusing things about the Newshub map, though.  We seem to be missing Wellington (in the text, too), along with Auckland City and Northland. The ‘Southern’, ‘Eastern’, and ‘Central’ police districts are under a label ‘Auckland’ at the top right, making them look as though they might be southern, eastern, and central Auckland.

As always, there’s the question of the appropriate denominator.  Police districts are large enough that the distinction between the location of the murder and the residence of the victim might not matter too much (in contrast to census area units and assault), and I’m going to assume that the data include homicides in private homes (in contrast to census area units and assault) because that would have been mentioned otherwise. So it seems reasonable to use a general population denominator. This is trickier than I would have expected; it seems quite hard to find the police district populations. If you’re putting in a police OIA request like this one you might want to ask them for populations as well.

Looking at maps, the police districts seem to (at least approximately) be combinations of DHBs^*, so I used the populations of those DHBs. Here are the comparisons just by counts of homicides over nearly three years (we’re missing Wellington and Northland)

And here are the (approximated) rates per thousand people over those three years. You might worry about how well the three Auckland districts can be separated; it wouldn’t be hard to combine them.

Bay of Plenty looks higher and Canterbury, Counties, and Waitematā look lower when you account for the differences in numbers of people.  Comparisons like this usually want rates (how dangerous), not counts (how many), if a relevant denominator is available.

Newshub does get points, though, for correctly saying all these numbers are pretty low by international standards.

* DHB: Deprecated Health Boundary