March 28, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.26 12.99 -1.70
Rabbitohs 8.42 9.35 -0.90
Storm 7.57 11.21 -3.60
Sharks 5.75 4.50 1.20
Roosters 5.64 7.64 -2.00
Eels 5.60 6.78 -1.20
Cowboys 2.82 6.23 -3.40
Raiders 0.79 1.98 -1.20
Broncos -1.68 -5.92 4.20
Sea Eagles -2.41 -5.26 2.80
Dragons -4.93 -2.73 -2.20
Titans -5.39 -6.32 0.90
Dolphins -7.11 -10.00 2.90
Bulldogs -7.60 -8.29 0.70
Warriors -8.36 -11.12 2.80
Knights -9.68 -9.53 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.69 -13.52 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 23 17 – 16 -3.70 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 24 24 – 12 25.00 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 24 12 – 18 -1.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 25 24 – 12 11.00 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 25 13 – 12 15.70 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 26 16 – 14 6.20 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 26 24 – 14 -9.90 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 26 8 – 40 -4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 30 Roosters 3.00
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 31 Panthers -7.50
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Mar 31 Rabbitohs 3.90
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 01 Sea Eagles 10.30
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Apr 01 Dragons 5.20
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 Broncos 14.00
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 02 Sharks 20.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 02 Cowboys -7.40

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.36 16.79 -0.40
Ulster 10.03 9.27 0.80
Munster 9.44 9.78 -0.30
Stormers 8.95 7.14 1.80
Bulls 5.30 7.84 -2.50
Glasgow 5.08 -0.00 5.10
Sharks 4.68 6.95 -2.30
Connacht 2.15 -1.60 3.70
Edinburgh -0.31 3.58 -3.90
Scarlets -1.44 -1.23 -0.20
Ospreys -3.06 -0.83 -2.20
Lions -3.39 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.97 -3.68 -0.30
Cardiff Rugby -5.79 -7.42 1.60
Dragons -10.31 -11.81 1.50
Zebre -17.70 -16.99 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 25 30 – 34 -8.30 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Mar 25 22 – 22 13.10 FALSE
3 Benetton vs. Lions Mar 26 28 – 32 4.80 FALSE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 26 37 – 18 10.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 26 41 – 26 6.00 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Mar 26 26 – 38 10.60 FALSE
7 Scarlets vs. Sharks Mar 26 32 – 20 -2.90 FALSE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Mar 26 32 – 23 9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Benetton Apr 15 Sharks 13.20
2 Glasgow vs. Scarlets Apr 15 Glasgow 11.00
3 Ulster vs. Dragons Apr 15 Ulster 24.80
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 15 Leinster -15.20
5 Bulls vs. Zebre Apr 16 Bulls 27.50
6 Stormers vs. Munster Apr 16 Stormers 4.00
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 16 Connacht 12.40
8 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Apr 16 Edinburgh 7.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 8.04 6.88 1.20
Stade Toulousain 7.46 6.34 1.10
Toulon 5.07 4.09 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.62 5.27 -0.60
Montpellier 3.82 4.18 -0.40
Stade Francais 3.35 -1.05 4.40
Racing 92 3.09 4.86 -1.80
Lyon 2.97 3.10 -0.10
Clermont 1.79 4.05 -2.30
Castres Olympique 0.07 2.87 -2.80
Aviron Bayonnais -0.39 -4.26 3.90
Section Paloise -1.71 -2.12 0.40
USA Perpignan -4.33 -2.75 -1.60
Brive -6.59 -4.20 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Mar 26 20 – 30 9.00 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 26 6 – 36 5.10 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 26 27 – 17 -1.70 FALSE
4 Clermont vs. Brive Mar 26 38 – 10 13.90 TRUE
5 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 26 23 – 27 5.30 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Mar 26 22 – 23 -1.70 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Mar 27 13 – 17 7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Apr 15 Stade Francais -3.40
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 15 La Rochelle 14.90
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Apr 15 Montpellier 10.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 15 Racing 92 5.00
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Apr 15 Section Paloise 3.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Apr 15 Stade Toulousain 11.00
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Apr 15 Toulon 15.90

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.27 17.95 -0.70
Blues 12.58 12.34 0.20
Hurricanes 11.47 9.59 1.90
Chiefs 10.59 8.81 1.80
Brumbies 7.04 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.77 5.04 -2.30
Reds 1.43 1.89 -0.50
Waratahs -2.20 -2.50 0.30
Rebels -5.11 -6.19 1.10
Western Force -6.21 -5.54 -0.70
Fijian Drua -10.11 -10.50 0.40
Moana Pasifika -10.89 -8.91 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Mar 24 35 – 17 15.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 24 14 – 24 -7.00 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 57 – 24 17.10 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 0 – 59 -16.00 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 25 40 – 34 -3.90 FALSE
6 Blues vs. Western Force Mar 26 30 – 17 25.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 Highlanders -10.20
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 Crusaders -10.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 Rebels -1.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 Chiefs 1.50
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 Brumbies 12.70
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 Hurricanes 23.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.14 7.93 -2.80
Sale Sharks 4.20 4.14 0.10
London Irish 3.88 -1.65 5.50
Saracens 1.69 -5.00 6.70
Harlequins 0.78 3.92 -3.10
Bristol 0.49 -2.43 2.90
Northampton Saints -0.02 3.99 -4.00
Exeter Chiefs -0.03 3.67 -3.70
Gloucester -0.18 5.92 -6.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -5.84 -9.15 3.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.17 -8.76 1.60
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Mar 25 17 – 12 -3.50 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 26 46 – 24 7.60 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 26 37 – 22 7.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 26 36 – 24 4.50 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 27 36 – 19 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Apr 16 Bristol 0.80
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Apr 16 Gloucester 10.20
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 16 Harlequins 12.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 16 Leicester Tigers 9.70
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 16 Northampton Saints 2.80

 

March 21, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.08 17.95 -0.90
Blues 13.10 12.34 0.80
Chiefs 10.42 8.81 1.60
Hurricanes 10.06 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.23 6.64 0.60
Highlanders 2.13 5.04 -2.90
Reds 1.87 1.89 -0.00
Waratahs -2.03 -2.50 0.50
Rebels -5.55 -6.19 0.60
Western Force -6.74 -5.54 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.47 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -9.48 -8.91 -0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 34 – 17 17.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 44 – 25 21.90 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 28 – 34 0.10 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 62 – 36 21.80 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 43 – 35 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 27 – 24 15.90 TRUE

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Mar 24 Crusaders 15.40
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -7.00
3 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Highlanders 17.10
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -16.00
5 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 25 Reds -3.90
6 Blues vs. Western Force Mar 26 Blues 25.30
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NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.78 12.99 -1.20
Rabbitohs 9.36 9.35 0.00
Storm 8.42 11.21 -2.80
Roosters 5.64 7.64 -2.00
Eels 5.08 6.78 -1.70
Sharks 4.19 4.50 -0.30
Cowboys 2.71 6.23 -3.50
Raiders 2.00 1.98 0.00
Broncos -2.18 -5.92 3.70
Sea Eagles -3.35 -5.26 1.90
Dragons -3.37 -2.73 -0.60
Titans -5.28 -6.32 1.00
Dolphins -6.61 -10.00 3.40
Warriors -7.91 -11.12 3.20
Bulldogs -8.06 -8.29 0.20
Knights -10.88 -9.53 -1.40
Wests Tigers -13.55 -13.52 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 16 34 – 30 -6.90 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 17 20 – 36 0.80 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 20 – 18 -1.50 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Storm Mar 18 38 – 34 -12.80 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Mar 18 12 – 26 20.30 FALSE
6 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 18 40 – 18 1.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 26 – 22 9.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 19 24 – 20 -0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 23 Panthers -3.70
2 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 24 Storm 25.00
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 24 Broncos -1.40
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 25 Cowboys 11.00
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 25 Rabbitohs 15.70
6 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 26 Warriors 6.20
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 26 Raiders -9.90
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 26 Sharks -4.60

 

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March 14, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.78 12.99 -1.20
Rabbitohs 9.75 9.35 0.40
Storm 9.47 11.21 -1.70
Eels 5.83 6.78 -0.90
Roosters 5.26 7.64 -2.40
Sharks 4.64 4.50 0.10
Cowboys 4.58 6.23 -1.60
Raiders 1.55 1.98 -0.40
Dragons -2.15 -2.73 0.60
Broncos -3.40 -5.92 2.50
Sea Eagles -4.10 -5.26 1.20
Titans -6.33 -6.32 -0.00
Bulldogs -7.43 -8.29 0.90
Dolphins -7.66 -10.00 2.30
Warriors -9.77 -11.12 1.40
Knights -9.83 -9.53 -0.30
Wests Tigers -14.18 -13.52 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 09 16 – 10 4.80 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 10 26 – 30 5.50 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 10 28 – 16 -7.30 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 11 20 – 12 22.90 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Raiders Mar 11 20 – 14 -8.00 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Bulldogs Mar 11 12 – 26 23.90 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 12 12 – 14 -1.20 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Titans Mar 12 32 – 18 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 16 Eels -6.90
2 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 17 Knights 0.80
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 Rabbitohs -1.50
4 Titans vs. Storm Mar 18 Storm -12.80
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Mar 18 Cowboys 20.30
6 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 18 Broncos 1.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 Bulldogs 9.70
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 19 Sharks -0.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.40 12.34 1.10
Chiefs 10.62 8.81 1.80
Hurricanes 10.10 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.01 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.47 5.04 -2.60
Reds 2.41 1.89 0.50
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -5.75 -6.19 0.40
Western Force -7.07 -5.54 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -9.25 -8.91 -0.30
Fijian Drua -10.01 -10.50 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 28 – 7 10.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 34 – 27 -0.90 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 25 – 24 -23.10 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 19 – 25 0.90 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 23 – 17 8.40 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 21 – 18 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 Hurricanes 17.70
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Chiefs 21.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 Blues 0.10
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Brumbies 21.80
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 Reds 15.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 4.36 7.93 -3.60
Sale Sharks 4.20 4.14 0.10
London Irish 3.43 -1.65 5.10
Bristol 1.26 -2.43 3.70
Saracens 1.25 -5.00 6.20
Harlequins 1.23 3.92 -2.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.00 3.67 -2.70
Northampton Saints 0.43 3.99 -3.60
Gloucester 0.31 5.92 -5.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -6.88 -9.15 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.67 -8.76 1.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 11 45 – 26 10.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 12 24 – 5 12.40 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Mar 12 36 – 18 2.00 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 13 5 – 26 2.80 FALSE
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 13 51 – 26 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 26 Leicester Tigers 7.60
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 26 London Irish 7.50
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Mar 26 Gloucester -3.50
5 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 26 Saracens 4.50

 

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