Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Exeter Chiefs | 6.55 | 7.35 | -0.80 |
Bristol | 4.32 | 1.28 | 3.00 |
Sale Sharks | 3.94 | 4.96 | -1.00 |
Harlequins | 3.85 | -1.08 | 4.90 |
Wasps | -0.54 | 5.66 | -6.20 |
Bath | -0.95 | 2.14 | -3.10 |
Northampton Saints | -1.50 | -2.48 | 1.00 |
Leicester Tigers | -4.25 | -6.14 | 1.90 |
Gloucester | -4.29 | -1.02 | -3.30 |
London Irish | -5.82 | -8.05 | 2.20 |
Newcastle Falcons | -6.94 | -10.00 | 3.10 |
Worcester Warriors | -7.46 | -5.71 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 77 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bath vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 21 | 47 – 22 | 9.40 | TRUE |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 21 | 47 – 31 | 15.20 | TRUE |
3 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Mar 21 | 59 – 24 | 10.20 | TRUE |
4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps | Mar 21 | 18 – 20 | -1.90 | TRUE |
5 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Mar 21 | 21 – 28 | -0.50 | TRUE |
6 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Mar 21 | 41 – 13 | 12.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Mar 28 | Bristol | 5.00 |
2 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 27 | Exeter Chiefs | -6.30 |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 29 | Leicester Tigers | 7.20 |
4 | London Irish vs. Bath | Mar 28 | Bath | -0.40 |
5 | Wasps vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 28 | Wasps | 0.00 |
6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 28 | Northampton Saints | -1.50 |
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