May 26, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.96 13.43 2.50
Blues 12.35 9.26 3.10
Hurricanes 8.99 8.28 0.70
Chiefs 7.90 5.56 2.30
Brumbies 5.48 3.61 1.90
Highlanders 4.63 6.54 -1.90
Reds -0.19 1.37 -1.60
Waratahs -2.55 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -7.77 -4.96 -2.80
Rebels -8.76 -5.79 -3.00
Moana Pasifika -12.76 -10.00 -2.80
Fijian Drua -14.98 -10.00 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force May 24 28 – 48 -3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 27 Crusaders 22.20
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs May 27 Chiefs -16.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies May 28 Brumbies -12.20
4 Waratahs vs. Blues May 28 Blues -8.90
5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes May 28 Hurricanes -10.80
6 Rebels vs. Highlanders May 29 Highlanders -7.40

 

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May 24, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.59 14.26 2.30
Storm 16.07 19.20 -3.10
Rabbitohs 6.81 15.81 -9.00
Sea Eagles 4.01 10.99 -7.00
Eels 3.44 2.54 0.90
Roosters 1.99 2.23 -0.20
Sharks 0.99 -1.10 2.10
Cowboys 0.00 -12.27 12.30
Raiders -1.02 -1.10 0.10
Broncos -1.08 -8.90 7.80
Titans -4.06 1.05 -5.10
Dragons -7.42 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -7.53 -8.99 1.50
Wests Tigers -9.10 -10.94 1.80
Knights -10.35 -6.54 -3.80
Bulldogs -11.36 -10.25 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos May 19 12 – 36 -3.90 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 20 36 – 22 4.00 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 20 22 – 20 2.50 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 21 24 – 18 5.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Storm May 21 36 – 6 -18.30 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers May 21 12 – 32 -10.40 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 22 12 – 32 14.70 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Sharks May 22 18 – 25 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 26 Storm 15.10
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 27 Panthers 19.60
3 Broncos vs. Titans May 27 Broncos 6.00
4 Warriors vs. Knights May 28 Warriors 2.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 28 Rabbitohs 18.90
6 Sharks vs. Roosters May 28 Sharks 2.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 29 Dragons -0.90
8 Raiders vs. Eels May 29 Eels -1.50

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.94 14.79 1.10
Munster 10.63 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.17 7.41 0.80
Stormers 7.23 0.00 7.20
Bulls 7.22 3.65 3.60
Sharks 6.73 -0.07 6.80
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Glasgow 1.76 3.69 -1.90
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby May 21 69 – 21 6.70 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Sharks May 21 24 – 21 9.00 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Bulls May 21 31 – 38 -0.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Lions May 22 11 – 21 -2.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Zebre May 22 22 – 20 24.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Stormers May 22 21 – 26 -1.30 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow May 22 28 – 11 5.60 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Munster May 22 35 – 25 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 04 Bulls 5.50
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 05 Leinster 20.70
3 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Jun 05 Stormers 10.10
4 Ulster vs. Munster Jun 04 Ulster 2.50

 

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.40 6.78 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.49 6.83 -0.30
Racing-Metro 92 6.39 6.13 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.37 5.42 1.00
Clermont Auvergne 4.93 5.09 -0.20
RC Toulonnais 4.32 1.82 2.50
Lyon Rugby 3.91 4.15 -0.20
Montpellier 3.37 -0.01 3.40
Castres Olympique 2.81 0.94 1.90
Stade Francais Paris 0.12 1.20 -1.10
Section Paloise -1.39 -2.25 0.90
USA Perpignan -3.41 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -4.89 -3.19 -1.70
Biarritz -9.07 -2.78 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 174 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Clermont Auvergne May 22 8 – 26 -6.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby May 22 42 – 10 7.40 TRUE
3 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain May 22 8 – 26 -3.90 TRUE
4 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 22 28 – 12 12.40 TRUE
5 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris May 22 32 – 13 13.20 TRUE
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 22 22 – 13 2.90 TRUE
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise May 22 37 – 20 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Jun 06 Clermont Auvergne 8.10
2 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 Lyon Rugby 3.00
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 Racing-Metro 92 8.60
4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Jun 06 Section Paloise 2.30
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jun 06 Stade Francais Paris 11.50
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Biarritz Jun 06 Stade Toulousain 22.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 06 Bordeaux-Begles -3.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.96 13.43 2.50
Blues 12.35 9.26 3.10
Hurricanes 8.99 8.28 0.70
Chiefs 7.90 5.56 2.30
Brumbies 5.48 3.61 1.90
Highlanders 4.63 6.54 -1.90
Reds -0.19 1.37 -1.60
Waratahs -2.55 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -8.65 -4.96 -3.70
Rebels -8.76 -5.79 -3.00
Moana Pasifika -11.88 -10.00 -1.90
Fijian Drua -14.98 -10.00 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua May 20 61 – 3 34.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika May 20 34 – 22 18.80 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 21 54 – 21 21.30 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 21 45 – 22 23.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 21 19 – 21 -0.70 TRUE
6 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 22 20 – 32 15.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Apr 24 Western Force -6.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.64 -5.00 10.60
Leicester Tigers 5.44 -6.14 11.60
Gloucester 3.04 -1.02 4.10
Harlequins 2.85 -1.08 3.90
Sale Sharks 2.14 4.96 -2.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.07 7.35 -5.30
Northampton Saints 1.82 -2.48 4.30
Wasps 1.22 5.66 -4.40
London Irish -2.88 -8.05 5.20
Bristol -3.55 1.28 -4.80
Newcastle Falcons -7.86 -3.52 -4.30
Bath -8.16 2.14 -10.30
Worcester Warriors -13.39 -5.71 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. London Irish May 22 27 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs May 22 40 – 33 -2.20 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 22 28 – 24 4.40 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers May 22 5 – 27 -7.20 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 22 42 – 38 8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks May 22 7 – 16 5.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Jun 05 Exeter Chiefs 3.70
2 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jun 05 Gloucester 1.90
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Jun 05 Leicester Tigers 8.70
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 05 Northampton Saints 14.20
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 05 Sale Sharks 10.20
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Jun 05 Bath -0.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.66 7.25 0.40
Cheetahs 6.71 -2.70 9.40
Sharks 0.78 4.13 -3.40
Pumas -0.01 -3.31 3.30
Western Province -1.28 1.42 -2.70
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Lions -11.44 -1.88 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 17 – 23 8.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 44 – 15 7.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 43 – 37 26.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Pumas May 28 Bulls 12.20
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs May 28 Cheetahs -4.60
3 Lions vs. Western Province May 29 Western Province -5.70

 

May 20, 2022

Briefly

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  • The WHO has released new estimates of Covid mortality.  Here’s Jon Wakefield, a statistician at the University of Washington, talking about them on PBS Newshour, Radio New Zealand, BBC’s More or Less, and Checks and Balance, at The Wire in India
  • A nice new Australian electoral map, just in time for the election
  • Some interesting sound-based data display from NASA. I’m not sure how well it works as communication
  • The making of a data visualisation — all the plots that Georgios Karamanis made in the process of looking at some data and making a final graphic
  • Media Council ruling on a terrible graph accompanying a column by Shane Reti in the Northern Advocate: “Opinion pieces must be based on a foundation of fact, and should not contain clear errors of fact.  There is no doubt that the graphs presented by Dr Reti as justifying his headline and comment in his column were misleading in that they did not fairly show the trend in cases through the period.”
  • The sources of data for online panel surveys are more complicated and messy than many people expect: “We began wondering about survey data sourcing when we noticed that since 2018, the Cooperative Election Study  has included data from Dynata, Critical Mix, and Prodege. This was a shock to us because among academic researchers, the Cooperative Election Study is widely understood as a survey conducted by YouGov“
  • A Twitter thread about Tesco Clubcard, perhaps the first store loyalty programme to focus on data collection
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May 17, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 28

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Ospreys -0.23 0.94 -1.20
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Benetton -5.45 -4.50 -1.00
Cardiff Rugby -5.66 -0.11 -5.60
Dragons -11.11 -6.92 -4.20
Zebre -18.06 -13.47 -4.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby May 14 18 – 19 -0.30 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Zebre May 15 39 – 17 16.60 TRUE

Predictions for Week 28

Here are the predictions for Week 28. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby May 21 Benetton 6.70
2 Ulster vs. Sharks May 21 Ulster 9.00
3 Ospreys vs. Bulls May 21 Bulls -0.30
4 Dragons vs. Lions May 22 Lions -2.20
5 Connacht vs. Zebre May 22 Connacht 24.00
6 Scarlets vs. Stormers May 22 Stormers -1.30
7 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow May 22 Edinburgh 5.60
8 Leinster vs. Munster May 22 Leinster 10.40

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.70 19.20 -0.50
Panthers 15.98 14.26 1.70
Rabbitohs 8.76 15.81 -7.10
Sea Eagles 3.97 10.99 -7.00
Eels 3.48 2.54 0.90
Roosters 2.61 2.23 0.40
Sharks 0.52 -1.10 1.60
Broncos -2.27 -8.90 6.60
Cowboys -2.62 -12.27 9.60
Raiders -2.97 -1.10 -1.90
Titans -3.59 1.05 -4.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.99 0.50
Warriors -7.49 -8.99 1.50
Knights -9.16 -6.54 -2.60
Wests Tigers -9.74 -10.94 1.20
Bulldogs -10.72 -10.25 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 13 6 – 16 -0.30 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 0 – 38 8.30 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 14 30 – 32 -18.20 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Dragons May 14 20 – 16 3.80 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Panthers May 14 6 – 32 6.40 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 15 10 – 30 6.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Eels May 15 31 – 24 -2.00 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 15 12 – 36 -4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos May 19 Broncos -3.90
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 20 Wests Tigers 4.00
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 20 Eels 2.50
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 21 Dragons 5.50
5 Cowboys vs. Storm May 21 Storm -18.30
6 Roosters vs. Panthers May 21 Panthers -10.40
7 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 22 Rabbitohs 14.70
8 Titans vs. Sharks May 22 Sharks -1.10

 

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