United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 11.39 | 12.13 | -0.70 |
| Bulls | 10.80 | 10.00 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | 7.31 | 6.49 | 0.80 |
| Glasgow | 7.23 | 6.47 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | 2.88 | 2.16 | 0.70 |
| Lions | 2.21 | 1.48 | 0.70 |
| Connacht | 1.79 | 2.62 | -0.80 |
| Munster | 0.49 | 1.25 | -0.80 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.83 | -1.63 | 0.80 |
| Ulster | -1.03 | -0.32 | -0.70 |
| Edinburgh | -1.84 | -2.55 | 0.70 |
| Ospreys | -4.07 | -3.35 | -0.70 |
| Scarlets | -4.27 | -3.47 | -0.80 |
| Benetton | -7.74 | -6.67 | -1.10 |
| Dragons | -8.97 | -10.04 | 1.10 |
| Zebre | -15.36 | -14.56 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Dragons | Sept 26 | 19 – 19 | 8.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Stormers | Sept 26 | 15 – 29 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Edinburgh | Sept 26 | 29 – 34 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Lions vs. Leinster | Sept 26 | 27 – 26 | -5.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Ospreys | Sept 27 | 41 – 24 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Munster vs. Glasgow | Sept 27 | 20 – 26 | 0.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Zebre vs. Bulls | Sept 27 | 13 – 47 | -19.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby | Sept 27 | 15 – 21 | 0.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Connacht | Oct 03 | Connacht | -4.00 |
| 2 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre | Oct 03 | Cardiff Rugby | 20.00 |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Stormers | Oct 03 | Stormers | -3.60 |
| 4 | Lions vs. Ospreys | Oct 04 | Lions | 11.80 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Oct 04 | Scarlets | -2.20 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Leinster | Oct 04 | Leinster | -3.00 |
| 7 | Glasgow vs. Ulster | Oct 04 | Glasgow | 13.80 |
| 8 | Munster vs. Bulls | Oct 04 | Bulls | -4.80 |
Recent comments