October 20, 2026

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.66 10.29 0.40
Taranaki 10.15 7.57 2.60
Otago 7.26 5.80 1.50
Northland 4.24 -5.96 10.20
Bay of Plenty 3.05 9.80 -6.80
Hawke’s Bay 2.56 5.18 -2.60
North Harbour 1.87 -4.18 6.00
Tasman 1.60 0.68 0.90
Auckland -1.21 -2.64 1.40
Waikato -1.89 -0.83 -1.10
Counties Manukau -1.91 3.63 -5.50
Manawatu -8.51 -15.05 6.50
Wellington -10.77 2.70 -13.50
Southland -10.93 -10.83 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 16 38 – 19 -2.80 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 38 – 28 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 17 Canterbury 9.40

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Patriots 7.79 8.11 -0.30
Seahawks 7.74 12.03 -4.30
Bills 5.47 4.81 0.70
49ers 5.43 0.63 4.80
Jaguars 5.05 4.17 0.90
Broncos 4.26 4.07 0.20
Vikings 3.81 2.79 1.00
Texans 3.13 5.51 -2.40
Chiefs 2.99 -1.34 4.30
Rams 2.72 6.16 -3.40
Lions 2.70 5.20 -2.50
Bears 1.85 1.18 0.70
Bengals 1.34 0.39 0.90
Packers 0.98 1.72 -0.70
Ravens 0.94 2.53 -1.60
Steelers 0.90 -0.43 1.30
Panthers -1.35 -4.66 3.30
Eagles -2.08 0.73 -2.80
Raiders -2.24 -5.72 3.50
Falcons -2.36 -1.39 -1.00
Colts -2.38 -0.74 -1.60
Browns -2.40 -2.50 0.10
Chargers -2.68 1.16 -3.80
Saints -3.32 -3.38 0.10
Buccaneers -3.49 -3.95 0.50
Giants -3.61 -2.38 -1.20
Cowboys -3.86 -3.42 -0.40
Commanders -4.09 -4.65 0.60
Jets -4.75 -9.84 5.10
Dolphins -6.47 -3.99 -2.50
Cardinals -7.26 -7.49 0.20
Titans -8.25 -8.81 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Seahawks Oct 16 17 – 14 -6.00 FALSE
2 Jaguars vs. Texans Oct 19 31 – 34 3.80 FALSE
3 Falcons vs. Bears Oct 19 23 – 31 -2.70 TRUE
4 Browns vs. Ravens Oct 19 13 – 10 -5.80 FALSE
5 Colts vs. Titans Oct 19 20 – 26 8.60 FALSE
6 Patriots vs. Jets Oct 19 26 – 19 14.70 TRUE
7 Giants vs. Saints Oct 19 27 – 34 2.30 FALSE
8 Eagles vs. Panthers Oct 19 14 – 25 1.70 FALSE
9 Buccaneers vs. Steelers Oct 19 19 – 26 -3.40 TRUE
10 Rams vs. Cardinals Oct 19 16 – 18 12.70 FALSE
11 Chiefs vs. Chargers Oct 19 22 – 6 3.20 TRUE
12 Raiders vs. Bills Oct 19 30 – 33 -9.60 TRUE
13 Packers vs. Cowboys Oct 19 23 – 13 2.80 TRUE
14 49ers vs. Commanders Oct 20 23 – 17 10.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bears vs. Patriots Oct 23 Patriots -5.90
2 Saints vs. Steelers Oct 26 Steelers -4.20
3 Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 26 49ers -7.80
4 Ravens vs. Bengals Oct 26 Bengals -0.40
5 Panthers vs. Buccaneers Oct 26 Panthers 2.10
6 Texans vs. Giants Oct 26 Texans 6.70
7 Vikings vs. Colts Oct 26 Vikings 6.20
8 Jets vs. Dolphins Oct 26 Jets 1.70
9 Titans vs. Browns Oct 26 Browns -5.80
10 Cardinals vs. Broncos Oct 26 Broncos -11.50
11 Lions vs. Packers Oct 26 Lions 1.70
12 Raiders vs. Rams Oct 26 Rams -5.00
13 Seahawks vs. Chiefs Oct 26 Seahawks 4.80
14 Eagles vs. Cowboys Oct 27 Eagles 1.80

 

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October 13, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 11.12 10.00 1.10
Leinster 11.09 12.13 -1.00
Glasgow 7.28 6.47 0.80
Stormers 7.08 6.49 0.60
Sharks 3.27 2.16 1.10
Munster 1.63 1.25 0.40
Lions 1.35 1.48 -0.10
Connacht 0.87 2.62 -1.70
Edinburgh 0.15 -2.55 2.70
Ulster -0.36 -0.32 -0.00
Cardiff Rugby -2.45 -1.63 -0.80
Ospreys -3.87 -3.35 -0.50
Scarlets -5.89 -3.47 -2.40
Benetton -6.76 -6.67 -0.10
Dragons -8.91 -10.04 1.10
Zebre -15.58 -14.56 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 10 31 – 38 -1.10 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Connacht Oct 10 36 – 19 10.30 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Oct 11 57 – 15 9.50 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Sharks Oct 11 39 – 22 4.90 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 12 – 29 -8.10 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 11 27 – 26 8.10 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Munster Oct 11 26 – 26 0.70 FALSE
8 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 11 29 – 5 17.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 24 Sharks -0.20
2 Connacht vs. Zebre Oct 24 Connacht 21.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 24 Edinburgh 4.30
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 25 Bulls 17.00
5 Benetton vs. Glasgow Oct 25 Glasgow -8.50
6 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 25 Stormers 18.50
7 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 25 Leinster 12.00
8 Ospreys vs. Dragons Oct 25 Ospreys 7.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.06 12.37 -0.30
Montpellier 6.67 6.36 0.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.37 3.70 1.70
Stade Rochelais 5.20 4.97 0.20
Section Paloise 4.82 4.18 0.60
Stade Francais 4.63 5.68 -1.00
Clermont 2.75 4.21 -1.50
Racing 92 1.72 3.59 -1.90
Toulon -0.40 -0.81 0.40
Lyon -0.52 -0.94 0.40
Castres Olympique -0.91 -0.29 -0.60
Bayonne -1.38 -2.02 0.60
USA Perpignan -5.20 -5.39 0.20
Vannes -9.20 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 11 22 – 23 4.50 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 11 16 – 28 1.80 FALSE
3 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 11 35 – 26 12.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 11 30 – 22 4.00 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Oct 11 45 – 34 20.70 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Oct 11 29 – 15 3.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Oct 11 21 – 12 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Oct 25 Bayonne 5.60
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 25 Castres Olympique 1.00
3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 25 Racing 92 1.60
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 25 Stade Rochelais 6.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Oct 25 Stade Toulousain 23.80
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Oct 25 Toulon 1.30
7 Vannes vs. Clermont Oct 25 Clermont -5.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 8.36 9.66 -1.30
Saracens 8.06 8.04 0.00
Northampton Saints 8.02 8.34 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.90 9.92 -3.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.42 7.58 -4.20
Gloucester 2.41 -3.46 5.90
Bristol 1.28 -0.11 1.40
Sale Sharks -2.40 -2.31 -0.10
Harlequins -6.30 -3.58 -2.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -21.02 -25.37 4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 10 38 – 31 12.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Oct 11 71 – 48 3.80 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Oct 11 30 – 7 12.10 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Oct 12 34 – 28 35.70 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 12 28 – 24 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 24 Gloucester 1.10
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 Sale Sharks -11.60
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 25 Leicester Tigers 5.90
4 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 25 Bristol 4.90
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 26 Saracens -7.40

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 11.18 7.57 3.60
Canterbury 9.63 10.29 -0.70
Otago 8.67 5.80 2.90
Bay of Plenty 3.05 9.80 -6.80
Northland 2.82 -5.96 8.80
Hawke’s Bay 2.56 5.18 -2.60
North Harbour 1.87 -4.18 6.00
Tasman 1.60 0.68 0.90
Auckland -1.21 -2.64 1.40
Waikato -1.89 -0.83 -1.10
Counties Manukau -1.91 3.63 -5.50
Manawatu -8.51 -15.05 6.50
Wellington -10.77 2.70 -13.50
Southland -10.93 -10.83 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Tasman Oct 09 26 – 21 4.00 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 10 31 – 50 -4.20 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 10 50 – 14 5.40 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 11 62 – 26 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 16 Otago -2.80
2 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Canterbury 1.50

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 9.00 12.03 -3.00
Patriots 8.86 8.11 0.70
Bills 6.39 4.81 1.60
49ers 6.12 0.63 5.50
Jaguars 6.01 4.17 1.80
Rams 4.09 6.16 -2.10
Vikings 3.81 2.79 1.00
Broncos 3.00 4.07 -1.10
Lions 2.70 5.20 -2.50
Ravens 2.18 2.53 -0.30
Texans 2.18 5.51 -3.30
Chiefs 1.77 -1.34 3.10
Bengals 1.34 0.39 0.90
Bears 1.12 1.18 -0.10
Steelers 0.39 -0.43 0.80
Packers -0.03 1.72 -1.70
Eagles -0.87 0.73 -1.60
Colts -1.02 -0.74 -0.30
Chargers -1.46 1.16 -2.60
Falcons -1.63 -1.39 -0.20
Giants -2.31 -2.38 0.10
Panthers -2.57 -4.66 2.10
Cowboys -2.86 -3.42 0.60
Buccaneers -2.98 -3.95 1.00
Raiders -3.16 -5.72 2.60
Browns -3.63 -2.50 -1.10
Saints -4.63 -3.38 -1.30
Commanders -4.78 -4.65 -0.10
Jets -5.82 -9.84 4.00
Dolphins -6.47 -3.99 -2.50
Cardinals -8.64 -7.49 -1.10
Titans -9.61 -8.81 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 79 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Oct 09 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE
2 Jaguars vs. Eagles Oct 12 19 – 17 8.80 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Bengals Oct 12 24 – 31 -8.10 TRUE
4 Patriots vs. Raiders Oct 12 45 – 17 8.50 TRUE
5 Saints vs. Vikings Oct 12 13 – 23 -7.80 TRUE
6 Jets vs. Browns Oct 12 17 – 12 -5.00 FALSE
7 Steelers vs. Colts Oct 12 34 – 22 -1.10 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Texans Oct 12 3 – 26 -9.20 TRUE
9 Commanders vs. Giants Oct 12 27 – 27 -3.40 FALSE
10 Chargers vs. Broncos Oct 12 17 – 23 -3.90 TRUE
11 Cardinals vs. Lions Oct 12 21 – 45 -8.50 TRUE
12 Packers vs. Bears Oct 12 31 – 7 -6.20 FALSE
13 Seahawks vs. 49ers Oct 12 29 – 32 5.20 FALSE
14 Falcons vs. Ravens Oct 12 23 – 30 -2.60 TRUE
15 Rams vs. Bills Oct 13 34 – 37 -2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Seahawks Oct 16 Seahawks -6.00
2 Jaguars vs. Texans Oct 19 Jaguars 3.80
3 Falcons vs. Bears Oct 19 Bears -2.70
4 Browns vs. Ravens Oct 19 Ravens -5.80
5 Colts vs. Titans Oct 19 Colts 8.60
6 Patriots vs. Jets Oct 19 Patriots 14.70
7 Giants vs. Saints Oct 19 Giants 2.30
8 Eagles vs. Panthers Oct 19 Eagles 1.70
9 Buccaneers vs. Steelers Oct 19 Steelers -3.40
10 Rams vs. Cardinals Oct 19 Rams 12.70
11 Chiefs vs. Chargers Oct 19 Chiefs 3.20
12 Raiders vs. Bills Oct 19 Bills -9.60
13 Packers vs. Cowboys Oct 19 Packers 2.80
14 49ers vs. Commanders Oct 20 49ers 10.90

 

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October 7, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 10.14 12.03 -1.90
Patriots 7.12 8.11 -1.00
Jaguars 6.95 4.17 2.80
Bills 6.26 4.81 1.50
49ers 4.97 0.63 4.30
Rams 4.23 6.16 -1.90
Bears 3.66 1.18 2.50
Vikings 3.51 2.79 0.70
Broncos 2.70 4.07 -1.40
Chiefs 1.77 -1.34 3.10
Ravens 1.55 2.53 -1.00
Bengals 1.50 0.39 1.10
Lions 1.26 5.20 -3.90
Texans 0.87 5.51 -4.60
Colts 0.23 -0.74 1.00
Steelers -0.86 -0.43 -0.40
Falcons -1.00 -1.39 0.40
Chargers -1.16 1.16 -2.30
Cowboys -1.28 -3.42 2.10
Raiders -1.41 -5.72 4.30
Eagles -1.82 0.73 -2.60
Giants -1.83 -2.38 0.60
Browns -2.23 -2.50 0.30
Packers -2.57 1.72 -4.30
Panthers -2.57 -4.66 2.10
Saints -4.32 -3.38 -0.90
Buccaneers -4.56 -3.95 -0.60
Commanders -5.26 -4.65 -0.60
Dolphins -6.63 -3.99 -2.60
Cardinals -7.19 -7.49 0.30
Jets -7.22 -9.84 2.60
Titans -8.31 -8.81 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Browns vs. Steelers Oct 02 27 – 24 -3.10 FALSE
2 Commanders vs. Colts Oct 05 13 – 30 -2.80 TRUE
3 Ravens vs. Titans Oct 05 24 – 18 11.40 TRUE
4 Bills vs. Patriots Oct 05 26 – 29 -0.00 TRUE
5 Bears vs. Jets Oct 05 23 – 12 10.80 TRUE
6 Bengals vs. Jaguars Oct 05 17 – 22 -5.60 TRUE
7 Texans vs. Cowboys Oct 05 30 – 34 4.50 FALSE
8 Giants vs. Cardinals Oct 05 36 – 24 2.80 TRUE
9 Eagles vs. Rams Oct 05 20 – 24 -6.80 TRUE
10 Buccaneers vs. Packers Oct 05 14 – 17 -1.60 TRUE
11 Vikings vs. Dolphins Oct 05 15 – 10 12.10 TRUE
12 Raiders vs. Chiefs Oct 05 27 – 30 -3.30 TRUE
13 49ers vs. Broncos Oct 05 24 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
14 Seahawks vs. Chargers Oct 05 30 – 23 13.00 TRUE
15 Panthers vs. Lions Oct 05 32 – 26 -6.20 FALSE
16 Saints vs. Falcons Oct 06 24 – 45 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Oct 09 Cowboys 3.30
2 Jaguars vs. Eagles Oct 12 Jaguars 8.80
3 Dolphins vs. Bengals Oct 12 Bengals -8.10
4 Patriots vs. Raiders Oct 12 Patriots 8.50
5 Saints vs. Vikings Oct 12 Vikings -7.80
6 Jets vs. Browns Oct 12 Browns -5.00
7 Steelers vs. Colts Oct 12 Colts -1.10
8 Titans vs. Texans Oct 12 Texans -9.20
9 Commanders vs. Giants Oct 12 Giants -3.40
10 Chargers vs. Broncos Oct 12 Broncos -3.90
11 Cardinals vs. Lions Oct 12 Lions -8.50
12 Packers vs. Bears Oct 12 Bears -6.20
13 Seahawks vs. 49ers Oct 12 Seahawks 5.20
14 Falcons vs. Ravens Oct 12 Ravens -2.60
15 Rams vs. Bills Oct 13 Bills -2.00

 

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October 5, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.31 12.13 -1.80
Bulls 9.74 10.00 -0.30
Glasgow 6.48 6.47 0.00
Stormers 6.39 6.49 -0.10
Sharks 3.96 2.16 1.80
Lions 2.72 1.48 1.20
Connacht 1.67 2.62 -0.90
Munster 1.55 1.25 0.30
Ulster -0.28 -0.32 0.00
Edinburgh -0.92 -2.55 1.60
Cardiff Rugby -1.67 -1.63 -0.00
Ospreys -4.58 -3.35 -1.20
Scarlets -5.04 -3.47 -1.60
Benetton -7.61 -6.67 -0.90
Dragons -8.20 -10.04 1.80
Zebre -14.51 -14.56 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 31.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Connacht Oct 03 19 – 22 -4.00 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Oct 03 40 – 27 20.00 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 03 17 – 13 -3.60 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Ospreys Oct 04 35 – 19 11.80 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Oct 04 38 – 26 -2.20 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Leinster Oct 04 26 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
7 Glasgow vs. Ulster Oct 04 33 – 33 13.80 FALSE
8 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 04 26 – 22 -4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 10 Ospreys -1.10
2 Glasgow vs. Connacht Oct 10 Glasgow 10.30
3 Bulls vs. Lions Oct 11 Bulls 9.50
4 Stormers vs. Sharks Oct 11 Stormers 4.90
5 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Edinburgh -8.10
6 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 11 Scarlets 8.10
7 Ulster vs. Munster Oct 11 Ulster 0.70
8 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 11 Leinster 17.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.43 12.37 0.10
Montpellier 6.91 6.36 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.04 3.70 1.30
Section Paloise 5.04 4.18 0.90
Stade Rochelais 4.71 4.97 -0.30
Stade Francais 4.39 5.68 -1.30
Clermont 3.08 4.21 -1.10
Racing 92 2.11 3.59 -1.50
Lyon -0.03 -0.94 0.90
Toulon -0.79 -0.81 0.00
Castres Olympique -1.13 -0.29 -0.80
Bayonne -1.75 -2.02 0.30
USA Perpignan -5.10 -5.39 0.30
Vannes -9.31 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 04 51 – 28 10.70 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 04 35 – 32 0.00 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 04 55 – 25 12.50 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Oct 04 38 – 13 6.90 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Oct 04 40 – 43 -8.50 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 04 7 – 8 -7.90 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Toulon Oct 05 28 – 0 13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 11 Clermont 4.50
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 11 Lyon 1.80
3 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 11 Section Paloise 12.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 11 Stade Francais 4.00
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Oct 11 Stade Toulousain 20.70
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Oct 11 Toulon 3.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Oct 11 USA Perpignan 10.70

 

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