October 4, 2026

Fool me twice

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This graph (from Semafor) has circulated a lot on social media

It shows an incredible drop in tourist visits to the US this year. Literally incredible (literally literally).

Kieran Healy explains what the problem is (we have only partial data for 2026) and gives a better graph, showing that tourism from Canada is genuinely down to some extent, but there isn’t a huge difference for other major countries (though NZ, which he doesn’t look at, is also down).

What’s embarrassing for the data-oriented social media community is that it’s the second time. Last March, a substantial fall in US visitor numbers “year on year” was seen, and interpreted as a backlash to President Trump.  In fact, the “fall” was just that the Easter tourism peak had moved from March in 2024 to April in 2025.  We can blame the Council of Nicaea, not the US President.

Interestingly, if you look at the text in the linked Semaphor piece, it says visits are “on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year”, which seems to fit Kieran’s corrected graph rather than the original one.

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September 30, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.39 12.13 -0.70
Bulls 10.80 10.00 0.80
Stormers 7.31 6.49 0.80
Glasgow 7.23 6.47 0.80
Sharks 2.88 2.16 0.70
Lions 2.21 1.48 0.70
Connacht 1.79 2.62 -0.80
Munster 0.49 1.25 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.83 -1.63 0.80
Ulster -1.03 -0.32 -0.70
Edinburgh -1.84 -2.55 0.70
Ospreys -4.07 -3.35 -0.70
Scarlets -4.27 -3.47 -0.80
Benetton -7.74 -6.67 -1.10
Dragons -8.97 -10.04 1.10
Zebre -15.36 -14.56 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Dragons Sept 26 19 – 19 8.90 FALSE
2 Connacht vs. Stormers Sept 26 15 – 29 1.60 FALSE
3 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Sept 26 29 – 34 7.70 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Sept 26 27 – 26 -5.10 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Ospreys Sept 27 41 – 24 11.00 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Sept 27 20 – 26 0.30 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Bulls Sept 27 13 – 47 -19.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sept 27 15 – 21 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Connacht Oct 03 Connacht -4.00
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Oct 03 Cardiff Rugby 20.00
3 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 03 Stormers -3.60
4 Lions vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Lions 11.80
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Oct 04 Scarlets -2.20
6 Sharks vs. Leinster Oct 04 Leinster -3.00
7 Glasgow vs. Ulster Oct 04 Glasgow 13.80
8 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 04 Bulls -4.80

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.85 12.37 0.50
Montpellier 6.39 6.36 0.00
Section Paloise 5.37 4.18 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.59 3.70 0.90
Stade Francais 4.57 5.68 -1.10
Stade Rochelais 4.10 4.97 -0.90
Clermont 3.69 4.21 -0.50
Racing 92 1.52 3.59 -2.10
Lyon 0.42 -0.94 1.40
Toulon -0.27 -0.81 0.50
Castres Olympique -1.54 -0.29 -1.30
Bayonne -1.93 -2.02 0.10
USA Perpignan -4.51 -5.39 0.90
Vannes -9.64 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 27 38 – 25 -3.70 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Sept 27 20 – 6 11.40 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Sept 27 17 – 20 10.90 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Sept 27 31 – 10 9.80 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sept 27 28 – 10 15.60 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 27 39 – 17 6.70 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Sept 28 40 – 18 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 04 Bordeaux Begles 10.70
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 04 Bayonne 0.00
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 04 Racing 92 12.50
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Oct 04 Stade Rochelais 6.90
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Oct 04 Section Paloise -8.50
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 04 Stade Toulousain -7.90
7 Montpellier vs. Toulon Oct 05 Montpellier 13.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.44 9.66 0.80
Leicester Tigers 9.06 9.92 -0.90
Saracens 8.90 8.04 0.90
Northampton Saints 7.72 8.34 -0.60
Exeter Chiefs 4.88 7.58 -2.70
Bristol 1.02 -0.11 1.10
Gloucester -0.75 -3.46 2.70
Sale Sharks -3.44 -2.31 -1.10
Harlequins -4.36 -3.58 -0.80
Newcastle Red Bulls -24.74 -25.37 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 40%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bath Sept 26 17 – 33 -6.20 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Sept 26 59 – 26 40.70 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sept 27 24 – 45 18.00 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Sept 27 24 – 34 4.80 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Sept 28 38 – 40 8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 03 Bath 12.60
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 04 Bristol 0.30
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 04 Gloucester 10.60
4 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 04 Leicester Tigers -26.80
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 05 Saracens 19.30

 

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.14 8.77 0.40
Warriors 7.94 -1.18 9.10
Roosters 7.92 9.50 -1.60
Dolphins 6.13 1.85 4.30
Storm 3.08 6.96 -3.90
Knights 2.93 -14.06 17.00
Sharks 2.65 7.25 -4.60
Sea Eagles 2.09 0.21 1.90
Rabbitohs 2.06 -5.05 7.10
Raiders 0.57 1.62 -1.00
Bulldogs -1.37 2.13 -3.50
Cowboys -3.94 -2.69 -1.30
Eels -4.11 -0.37 -3.70
Broncos -5.52 7.06 -12.60
Titans -7.06 -8.02 1.00
Dragons -10.59 -6.72 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.91 -7.26 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Roosters Sept 25 20 – 36 5.20 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Knights Sept 27 14 – 22 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Knights Oct 04 Roosters 9.00

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 8.78 7.57 1.20
Canterbury 8.65 10.29 -1.60
Otago 7.55 5.80 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.16 5.18 -0.00
North Harbour 4.01 -4.18 8.20
Northland 2.17 -5.96 8.10
Bay of Plenty 1.94 9.80 -7.90
Waikato 1.01 -0.83 1.80
Tasman 0.37 0.68 -0.30
Auckland -1.93 -2.64 0.70
Counties Manukau -2.66 3.63 -6.30
Manawatu -9.08 -15.05 6.00
Wellington -9.41 2.70 -12.10
Southland -10.40 -10.83 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 24 45 – 26 -1.20 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 25 34 – 40 12.60 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 26 19 – 22 9.70 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Sept 26 34 – 21 23.60 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Sept 26 32 – 21 -2.50 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Sept 27 10 – 34 -4.90 TRUE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sept 27 14 – 50 4.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Auckland Oct 01 Otago 12.50
2 Southland vs. Northland Oct 02 Northland -9.60
3 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 03 Canterbury -14.70
4 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 Hawke’s Bay -4.80
5 Waikato vs. Tasman Oct 03 Waikato 3.60
6 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 04 Taranaki 21.20
7 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Oct 04 Bay of Plenty 0.90

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 10.98 12.03 -1.10
Jaguars 7.04 4.17 2.90
Patriots 6.70 8.11 -1.40
Bills 6.67 4.81 1.90
Rams 4.63 6.16 -1.50
Vikings 4.51 2.79 1.70
Broncos 4.20 4.07 0.10
Bears 3.63 1.18 2.50
49ers 3.47 0.63 2.80
Lions 2.43 5.20 -2.80
Ravens 2.30 2.53 -0.20
Texans 2.07 5.51 -3.40
Chiefs 1.80 -1.34 3.10
Bengals 1.41 0.39 1.00
Steelers -0.01 -0.43 0.40
Colts -1.11 -0.74 -0.40
Raiders -1.45 -5.72 4.30
Chargers -1.99 1.16 -3.10
Eagles -2.22 0.73 -3.00
Saints -2.43 -3.38 0.90
Cowboys -2.48 -3.42 0.90
Packers -2.76 1.72 -4.50
Falcons -2.90 -1.39 -1.50
Browns -3.08 -2.50 -0.60
Giants -3.12 -2.38 -0.70
Panthers -3.74 -4.66 0.90
Commanders -3.92 -4.65 0.70
Buccaneers -4.37 -3.95 -0.40
Cardinals -5.90 -7.49 1.60
Jets -7.20 -9.84 2.60
Dolphins -7.63 -3.99 -3.60
Titans -9.06 -8.81 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Packers vs. Falcons Sept 25 14 – 35 4.50 FALSE
2 Bills vs. Chargers Sept 28 24 – 16 8.90 TRUE
3 Browns vs. Panthers Sept 28 21 – 18 -0.30 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Jets Sept 28 31 – 24 10.70 TRUE
5 Colts vs. Texans Sept 28 19 – 17 -5.20 FALSE
6 Jaguars vs. Patriots Sept 28 35 – 6 -5.30 FALSE
7 Dolphins vs. Chiefs Sept 28 10 – 24 -7.70 TRUE
8 Giants vs. Titans Sept 28 12 – 7 6.30 TRUE
9 Steelers vs. Bengals Sept 28 30 – 27 -3.10 FALSE
10 Commanders vs. Seahawks Sept 28 33 – 31 -18.60 FALSE
11 49ers vs. Cardinals Sept 28 36 – 30 10.70 TRUE
12 Buccaneers vs. Vikings Sept 28 16 – 23 -9.60 TRUE
13 Cowboys vs. Ravens Sept 28 31 – 34 -5.50 TRUE
14 Saints vs. Raiders Sept 28 27 – 35 1.80 FALSE
15 Broncos vs. Rams Sept 28 30 – 26 -2.10 FALSE
16 Bears vs. Eagles Sept 29 27 – 7 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Browns vs. Steelers Oct 02 Steelers -3.10
2 Commanders vs. Colts Oct 05 Colts -2.80
3 Ravens vs. Titans Oct 05 Ravens 11.40
4 Bills vs. Patriots Oct 05 Patriots -0.00
5 Bears vs. Jets Oct 05 Bears 10.80
6 Bengals vs. Jaguars Oct 05 Jaguars -5.60
7 Texans vs. Cowboys Oct 05 Texans 4.50
8 Giants vs. Cardinals Oct 05 Giants 2.80
9 Eagles vs. Rams Oct 05 Rams -6.80
10 Buccaneers vs. Packers Oct 05 Packers -1.60
11 Vikings vs. Dolphins Oct 05 Vikings 12.10
12 Raiders vs. Chiefs Oct 05 Chiefs -3.30
13 49ers vs. Broncos Oct 05 Broncos -0.70
14 Seahawks vs. Chargers Oct 05 Seahawks 13.00
15 Panthers vs. Lions Oct 05 Lions -6.20
16 Saints vs. Falcons Oct 06 Saints 0.50

 

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September 22, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 12.80 12.03 0.80
Patriots 9.53 8.11 1.40
Bills 6.80 4.81 2.00
Rams 5.49 6.16 -0.70
Vikings 4.88 2.79 2.10
Jaguars 4.22 4.17 0.10
49ers 4.13 0.63 3.50
Broncos 3.34 4.07 -0.70
Texans 3.07 5.51 -2.40
Lions 2.94 5.20 -2.30
Ravens 2.65 2.53 0.10
Bengals 2.26 0.39 1.90
Bears 2.05 1.18 0.90
Chiefs 0.91 -1.34 2.30
Packers -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Eagles -0.64 0.73 -1.40
Steelers -0.87 -0.43 -0.40
Saints -1.06 -3.38 2.30
Colts -2.11 -0.74 -1.40
Chargers -2.12 1.16 -3.30
Cowboys -2.82 -3.42 0.60
Raiders -2.82 -5.72 2.90
Giants -2.94 -2.38 -0.60
Panthers -3.28 -4.66 1.40
Browns -3.54 -2.50 -1.00
Buccaneers -4.73 -3.95 -0.80
Falcons -5.10 -1.39 -3.70
Commanders -5.75 -4.65 -1.10
Cardinals -6.56 -7.49 0.90
Dolphins -6.74 -3.99 -2.80
Jets -7.71 -9.84 2.10
Titans -9.24 -8.81 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bills vs. Lions Sept 18 41 – 31 1.50 TRUE
2 Falcons vs. Panthers Sept 21 3 – 34 3.90 FALSE
3 Ravens vs. Saints Sept 21 17 – 24 6.20 FALSE
4 Bears vs. Vikings Sept 21 3 – 9 -1.60 TRUE
5 Texans vs. Bengals Sept 21 6 – 20 4.10 FALSE
6 Patriots vs. Steelers Sept 21 20 – 3 7.80 TRUE
7 Jets vs. Packers Sept 21 17 – 20 -8.80 TRUE
8 Buccaneers vs. Browns Sept 21 19 – 23 -0.10 TRUE
9 Titans vs. Eagles Sept 21 20 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Sept 21 20 – 13 -3.90 FALSE
11 Chargers vs. Raiders Sept 21 14 – 26 3.60 FALSE
12 Cardinals vs. Seahawks Sept 21 7 – 31 -17.60 TRUE
13 Cowboys vs. Commanders Sept 21 37 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
14 49ers vs. Dolphins Sept 21 35 – 13 8.30 TRUE
15 Chiefs vs. Colts Sept 21 33 – 30 3.00 TRUE
16 Rams vs. Giants Sept 22 28 – 6 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Packers vs. Falcons Sept 25 Packers 4.50
2 Bills vs. Chargers Sept 28 Bills 8.90
3 Browns vs. Panthers Sept 28 Panthers -0.30
4 Lions vs. Jets Sept 28 Lions 10.70
5 Colts vs. Texans Sept 28 Texans -5.20
6 Jaguars vs. Patriots Sept 28 Patriots -5.30
7 Dolphins vs. Chiefs Sept 28 Chiefs -7.70
8 Giants vs. Titans Sept 28 Giants 6.30
9 Steelers vs. Bengals Sept 28 Bengals -3.10
10 Commanders vs. Seahawks Sept 28 Seahawks -18.60
11 49ers vs. Cardinals Sept 28 49ers 10.70
12 Buccaneers vs. Vikings Sept 28 Vikings -9.60
13 Cowboys vs. Ravens Sept 28 Ravens -5.50
14 Saints vs. Raiders Sept 28 Saints 1.80
15 Broncos vs. Rams Sept 28 Rams -2.10
16 Bears vs. Eagles Sept 29 Bears 2.70

 

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September 21, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.13 12.13 0.00
Bulls 10.00 10.00 -0.00
Stormers 6.49 6.49 0.00
Glasgow 6.47 6.47 -0.00
Connacht 2.62 2.62 0.00
Sharks 2.16 2.16 0.00
Lions 1.48 1.48 0.00
Munster 1.25 1.25 0.00
Ulster -0.32 -0.32 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -1.63 -1.63 -0.00
Edinburgh -2.55 -2.55 0.00
Ospreys -3.35 -3.35 0.00
Scarlets -3.47 -3.47 0.00
Benetton -6.67 -6.67 0.00
Dragons -10.04 -10.04 -0.00
Zebre -14.56 -14.56 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Dragons Sept 26 Benetton 8.90
2 Connacht vs. Stormers Sept 26 Connacht 1.60
3 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Sept 26 Ulster 7.70
4 Lions vs. Leinster Sept 26 Leinster -5.10
5 Sharks vs. Ospreys Sept 27 Sharks 11.00
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Sept 27 Munster 0.30
7 Zebre vs. Bulls Sept 27 Bulls -19.10
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sept 27 Scarlets 0.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.47 12.37 0.10
Montpellier 6.76 6.36 0.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.17 3.70 1.50
Section Paloise 4.84 4.18 0.70
Stade Rochelais 4.64 4.97 -0.30
Stade Francais 4.16 5.68 -1.50
Clermont 3.53 4.21 -0.70
Racing 92 2.01 3.59 -1.60
Lyon 0.83 -0.94 1.80
Toulon -0.42 -0.81 0.40
Castres Olympique -1.39 -0.29 -1.10
Bayonne -2.42 -2.02 -0.40
USA Perpignan -5.08 -5.39 0.30
Vannes -9.49 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Sept 20 29 – 27 6.00 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Sept 20 46 – 24 -0.90 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Sept 20 51 – 25 0.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Sept 20 50 – 13 17.00 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Sept 20 10 – 20 10.50 FALSE
6 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 20 23 – 29 -16.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sept 21 40 – 10 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 27 Bordeaux Begles -3.70
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Sept 27 Clermont 11.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Sept 27 Racing 92 10.90
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Sept 27 Stade Francais 9.80
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sept 27 Toulon 15.60
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 27 Section Paloise 6.70
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Sept 28 Stade Toulousain 12.20

 

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