Team Ratings for Week 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|
Current Rating |
Rating at Season Start |
Difference |
| Geelong Cats |
24.53 |
26.75 |
-2.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers |
23.70 |
6.56 |
17.10 |
| Brisbane Lions |
18.29 |
26.20 |
-7.90 |
| Sydney Swans |
17.60 |
0.56 |
17.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks |
13.29 |
22.83 |
-9.50 |
| Adelaide Crows |
11.83 |
15.32 |
-3.50 |
| Melbourne Demons |
8.06 |
1.64 |
6.40 |
| GWS Giants |
6.63 |
9.54 |
-2.90 |
| Western Bulldogs |
6.11 |
26.06 |
-19.90 |
| Collingwood |
5.49 |
11.76 |
-6.30 |
| St Kilda Saints |
1.49 |
-7.63 |
9.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns |
1.44 |
10.24 |
-8.80 |
| Carlton Blues |
-1.35 |
-4.77 |
3.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power |
-5.82 |
-14.65 |
8.80 |
| North Melbourne |
-16.45 |
-21.71 |
5.30 |
| West Coast Eagles |
-32.92 |
-39.36 |
6.40 |
| Essendon Bombers |
-34.27 |
-27.89 |
-6.40 |
| Richmond Tigers |
-35.66 |
-29.44 |
-6.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|
Game |
Date |
Score |
Prediction |
Correct |
| 1 |
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions |
Jul 02 |
101 – 123 |
24.10 |
FALSE |
| 2 |
Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs |
Jul 03 |
90 – 55 |
20.20 |
TRUE |
| 3 |
West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows |
Jul 03 |
74 – 99 |
-35.70 |
TRUE |
| 4 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons |
Jul 04 |
90 – 125 |
25.00 |
FALSE |
| 5 |
GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers |
Jul 04 |
109 – 88 |
-10.90 |
FALSE |
| 6 |
Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood |
Jul 04 |
98 – 104 |
9.40 |
FALSE |
| 7 |
Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues |
Jul 04 |
72 – 74 |
-40.00 |
TRUE |
| 8 |
Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints |
Jul 05 |
50 – 117 |
-30.20 |
TRUE |
| 9 |
Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne |
Jul 05 |
73 – 52 |
21.80 |
TRUE |
Predictions for Week 19
Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|
Game |
Date |
Winner |
Prediction |
| 1 |
Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans |
Jul 09 |
Fremantle Dockers |
17.10 |
| 2 |
Collingwood vs. North Melbourne |
Jul 10 |
Collingwood |
21.90 |
| 3 |
St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power |
Jul 11 |
St Kilda Saints |
18.30 |
| 4 |
GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats |
Jul 11 |
Geelong Cats |
-6.90 |
| 5 |
Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks |
Jul 11 |
Hawthorn Hawks |
-14.60 |
| 6 |
Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns |
Jul 11 |
Adelaide Crows |
21.40 |
| 7 |
Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles |
Jul 12 |
Western Bulldogs |
50.00 |
| 8 |
Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers |
Jul 12 |
Melbourne Demons |
43.70 |
| 9 |
Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers |
Jul 12 |
Brisbane Lions |
63.60 |
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