Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

January 5, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.54 1.46 2.10
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.96 0.70
Pumas -8.24 -6.66 -1.60
Griquas -9.37 -8.90 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 25 – 33 -7.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 47 – 19 16.80 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 29 – 31 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 08 Bulls -11.40
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jan 09 Cheetahs -2.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 09 Western Province 4.30

 

December 29, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.20 6.21 1.00
Stade Toulousain 6.13 4.80 1.30
La Rochelle 5.08 2.32 2.80
Lyon Rugby 4.79 5.61 -0.80
Clermont Auvergne 4.04 3.22 0.80
RC Toulonnais 3.89 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.26 2.83 -0.60
Montpellier 1.91 2.30 -0.40
Stade Francais Paris -0.14 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.46 -0.47 -2.00
Brive -3.21 -3.26 0.10
Section Paloise -3.40 -4.48 1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.68 -4.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 12 – 8 -3.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Dec 27 22 – 9 8.00 TRUE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen Dec 27 45 – 10 22.40 TRUE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 27 – 9 4.40 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 29 – 27 2.30 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 45 – 23 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Jan 02 Aviron Bayonnais 4.00
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 02 Bordeaux-Begles 3.90
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 02 Clermont Auvergne 2.30
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Jan 02 Lyon Rugby 12.70
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Montpellier 1.30
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jan 02 Stade Francais Paris 8.60
7 SU Agen vs. La Rochelle Jan 02 La Rochelle -10.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.95 7.35 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.71 4.96 -1.30
Wasps 3.51 5.66 -2.20
Bristol 2.03 1.28 0.70
Bath 0.50 2.14 -1.60
Harlequins -0.97 -1.08 0.10
Gloucester -1.48 -1.02 -0.50
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -6.21 -6.14 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.89 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Worcester Warriors -7.73 -5.71 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 27 19 – 27 2.70 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 27 28 – 20 17.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 29 – 10 8.70 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Dec 28 23 – 26 5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 02 Bristol 13.40
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Jan 02 Harlequins -2.30
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 03 Exeter Chiefs -1.90
4 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 Sale Sharks -0.70
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Jan 04 Northampton Saints -0.30
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 04 Bath -2.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.26 9.90 0.40
Ulster 8.37 4.58 3.80
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 3.12 5.66 -2.50
Scarlets 2.05 1.98 0.10
Connacht 0.55 0.70 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.49 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -3.42 -2.82 -0.60
Treviso -4.26 -3.50 -0.80
Dragons -7.20 -7.85 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.71 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 27 19 – 32 -1.80 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 27 12 – 13 -1.90 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 14 – 16 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 Treviso 17.50
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 Cardiff Blues 7.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 Edinburgh 5.60
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 Leinster 23.80
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 Scarlets 14.30
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 Ulster 3.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Western Province 4.27 5.26 -1.00
Sharks 3.69 5.63 -1.90
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -2.31 -2.96 0.60
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.58 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 13 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 34 – 17 17.40 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 37 – 10 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 Lions -7.10
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 Sharks 16.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 Western Province -2.10

 

December 25, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.73 6.21 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.63 4.80 0.80
Lyon Rugby 5.32 5.61 -0.30
La Rochelle 4.73 2.32 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 3.22 1.30
RC Toulonnais 3.39 3.56 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 2.75 2.83 -0.10
Montpellier 2.27 2.30 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris -0.16 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.46 -0.47 -2.00
Section Paloise -3.38 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.73 -3.26 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.21 -4.72 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Dec 23 24 – 25 7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 Lyon Rugby -3.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 27 Castres Olympique 7.90
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.00
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 22.40
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 RC Toulonnais 4.40
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Section Paloise 2.30
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 8.40

 

December 22, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 5.76 5.63 0.10
Western Province 4.31 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -4.38 -2.96 -1.40
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Dec 18 31 – 35 1.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 19 27 – 12 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 Western Province 17.40
2 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 26 Bulls 8.70
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 Sharks -5.60

 

December 17, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 6.78 5.63 1.10
Western Province 4.31 5.26 -1.00
Lions 2.44 1.46 1.00
Cheetahs -4.90 -2.96 -1.90
Pumas -7.64 -6.66 -1.00
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Dec 11 28 – 14 17.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Dec 12 23 – 39 -0.70 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 12 32 – 29 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Dec 18 Pumas 1.80
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Dec 19 Bulls -11.80
3 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 19 Lions 0.20

 

December 10, 2020

Rugby Predictions for the Weekend of December 19-20

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I will be out of internet contact, even without a computer until Wednesday December 16 so I won’t be able to follow my usual practice of posting predictions on a Tuesday.  This only affects predictions for the Currie Cup as it happens.

I expect to post predictions for Round 4 of the Currie Cup either late on December 16 or on the morning of December 17, New Zealand time.

December 8, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.73 6.21 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.63 4.80 0.80
Lyon Rugby 5.31 5.61 -0.30
La Rochelle 4.72 2.32 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 3.22 1.30
RC Toulonnais 3.39 3.56 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 2.77 2.83 -0.10
Montpellier 2.26 2.30 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris -0.16 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.21 -0.47 -1.70
Section Paloise -3.37 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.98 -3.26 -0.70
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.22 -4.72 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 20 – 24 -5.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 12 – 17 2.60 FALSE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 15 – 21 8.80 FALSE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 22 – 18 6.40 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 13 – 17 5.10 FALSE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 24 – 23 2.10 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 6 – 15 -0.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Dec 23 Castres Olympique 7.30

 

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