Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

October 10, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 8.02 0.31 7.70
Exeter Chiefs 7.01 7.99 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Saracens 6.51 9.34 -2.80
Bath 3.97 1.10 2.90
Bristol 3.72 -2.77 6.50
Harlequins -0.67 -0.81 0.10
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.87 -1.76 -6.10
London Irish -9.98 -5.51 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 26 – 32 -2.10 TRUE
2 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 05 7 – 36 -7.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 05 17 – 17 8.00 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 46 – 5 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Oct 11 Exeter Chiefs 7.50
2 Wasps vs. Bristol Oct 11 Wasps 8.80

 

October 7, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.44 16.52 -0.10
Munster 10.04 9.90 0.10
Glasgow Warriors 5.44 5.66 -0.20
Edinburgh 4.52 5.49 -1.00
Ulster 4.26 4.58 -0.30
Scarlets 1.84 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 0.92 0.70 0.20
Cardiff Blues 0.17 0.08 0.10
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.85 -2.82 1.00
Treviso -3.18 -3.50 0.30
Dragons -7.77 -7.85 0.10
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.46 -15.37 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 6 – 16 -8.90 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 35 – 24 14.60 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 35 – 5 30.90 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 27 – 30 -1.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 28 – 24 1.50 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 10 – 25 14.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 10 Dragons 14.20
2 Treviso vs. Leinster Oct 11 Leinster -13.10
3 Ospreys vs. Ulster Oct 11 Ospreys 0.40
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Oct 11 Cardiff Blues 5.80
5 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Munster 12.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 12 Glasgow Warriors 10.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Yes, the games have already been played but these are my predictions posted here for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 16.52 0.00
Munster 9.90 9.90 -0.00
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Edinburgh 5.49 5.49 0.00
Ulster 4.58 4.58 -0.00
Scarlets 1.98 1.98 -0.00
Connacht 0.70 0.70 -0.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.82 -2.82 -0.00
Treviso -3.50 -3.50 0.00
Dragons -7.85 -7.85 0.00
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.37 -15.37 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 Cardiff Blues -8.90
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 Ulster 14.60
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 Leinster 30.90
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 Munster -1.40
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 Connacht 1.50
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Edinburgh 14.80

 

October 6, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

OK, so this is late, with only one game to play. It has been a crazy time trying to keep up with changes to fixtures. The Gloucester versus Northampton game was forfeited by Northampton and the result given to Gloucester 20-0. I think I will follow FlashScore on that game and ignore the allocated result.

I have also missed the start of the Pro14. I haven’t even sorted out the fixtures for that yet, or chosen parameters, but will catch up tomorrow I hope.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.81 7.99 0.80
Saracens 6.98 9.34 -2.40
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Wasps 6.21 0.31 5.90
Bath 3.51 1.10 2.40
Bristol 2.62 -2.77 5.40
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Harlequins -0.99 -0.81 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.56 -1.76 -5.80
London Irish -8.88 -5.51 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Sep 23 31 – 20 8.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Sep 30 19 – 22 24.90 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Wasps Oct 01 23 – 32 -1.80 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 01 14 – 34 -4.70 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens Oct 01 40 – 27 -11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Oct 05 Gloucester 7.70
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Harlequins -2.10
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 05 Bristol -7.00
4 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 08 Sale Sharks 18.10
5 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 05 Saracens 8.00
6 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 Wasps 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.59 12.73 0.90
Roosters 10.80 12.25 -1.40
Panthers 9.02 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.20 2.85 4.40
Raiders 7.16 7.06 0.10
Eels 2.29 2.80 -0.50
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Oct 02 29 – 28 0.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Oct 03 32 – 20 9.50 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Oct 03 36 – 24 11.10 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Oct 04 46 – 20 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 09 Roosters 5.60
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Oct 10 Rabbitohs -2.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.94 15.13 -1.20
Auckland 8.13 6.75 1.40
Canterbury 7.84 8.40 -0.60
Wellington 7.33 6.47 0.90
Bay of Plenty 4.33 8.21 -3.90
Waikato 3.12 1.31 1.80
North Harbour 1.89 2.87 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay 1.64 0.91 0.70
Taranaki -4.12 -4.42 0.30
Otago -4.99 -4.03 -1.00
Northland -6.79 -8.71 1.90
Counties Manukau -9.13 -8.18 -1.00
Southland -10.11 -14.04 3.90
Manawatu -12.96 -10.57 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Oct 02 16 – 20 -0.20 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Oct 03 36 – 30 7.00 TRUE
3 Northland vs. Taranaki Oct 03 35 – 25 -1.20 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Oct 03 31 – 26 3.10 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 04 40 – 24 -12.50 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Waikato Oct 04 9 – 10 -11.70 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 9 – 28 -1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 09 Canterbury -17.80
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -9.20
3 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 10 Wellington 15.30
4 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 10 Waikato 15.20
5 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 North Harbour 3.30
6 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 Tasman 12.60
7 Northland vs. Southland Oct 11 Northland 6.30

 

September 29, 2020

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.50 12.73 0.80
Roosters 10.89 12.25 -1.40
Panthers 8.92 -0.13 9.10
Raiders 6.96 7.06 -0.10
Rabbitohs 6.41 2.85 3.60
Eels 2.38 2.80 -0.40
Sharks -0.56 1.81 -2.40
Knights -1.82 -5.92 4.10
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 24 32 – 16 -2.90 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Knights Sep 25 36 – 6 -6.40 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 25 60 – 8 -6.70 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sep 26 0 – 42 -12.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 26 28 – 38 -4.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 26 24 – 28 -5.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sep 27 28 – 40 3.10 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Storm Sep 27 30 – 22 -18.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Oct 02 Panthers 0.00
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Oct 03 Raiders 9.50
3 Storm vs. Eels Oct 03 Storm 11.10
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Oct 04 Rabbitohs 10.20

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.67 15.13 0.50
Auckland 7.81 6.75 1.10
Canterbury 7.65 8.40 -0.80
Wellington 7.52 6.47 1.10
Bay of Plenty 4.65 8.21 -3.60
Waikato 3.87 1.31 2.60
Hawke’s Bay 0.49 0.91 -0.40
North Harbour 0.16 2.87 -2.70
Taranaki -3.34 -4.42 1.10
Otago -3.84 -4.03 0.20
Northland -7.58 -8.71 1.10
Counties Manukau -9.02 -8.18 -0.80
Southland -10.86 -14.04 3.20
Manawatu -13.07 -10.57 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 32 – 10 3.50 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 34 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 11 – 10 -9.50 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 20 – 19 -5.10 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 50 – 12 21.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 19 – 30 5.70 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 15 – 24 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Oct 02 Auckland -0.20
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Oct 03 Counties Manukau 7.00
3 Northland vs. Taranaki Oct 03 Taranaki -1.20
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Oct 03 Canterbury 3.10
5 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 04 Tasman -12.50
6 Southland vs. Waikato Oct 04 Waikato -11.70
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 Hawke’s Bay -1.30

 

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September 22, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.68 12.73 1.90
Roosters 13.01 12.25 0.80
Panthers 7.63 -0.13 7.80
Raiders 6.62 7.06 -0.40
Rabbitohs 4.29 2.85 1.40
Eels 2.56 2.80 -0.20
Sharks -0.22 1.81 -2.00
Knights -0.33 -5.92 5.60
Warriors -2.61 -5.17 2.60
Wests Tigers -3.25 -0.18 -3.10
Sea Eagles -4.00 1.05 -5.00
Dragons -6.13 -6.14 0.00
Bulldogs -6.33 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.14 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -8.70 -12.99 4.30
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Sep 17 16 – 26 14.90 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 18 12 – 32 -11.80 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 18 26 – 12 17.10 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Sep 19 24 – 42 9.10 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Sep 19 50 – 22 16.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 19 34 – 18 15.00 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 20 26 – 14 14.10 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 20 42 – 18 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 24 Cowboys -2.90
2 Titans vs. Knights Sep 25 Knights -6.40
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 25 Roosters -6.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sep 26 Panthers -12.00
5 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 26 Raiders -4.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 26 Eels -5.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sep 27 Sea Eagles 3.10
8 Dragons vs. Storm Sep 27 Storm -18.80

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.39 15.13 0.30
Canterbury 8.11 8.40 -0.30
Auckland 6.74 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.32 6.47 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 5.84 8.21 -2.40
Waikato 4.14 1.31 2.80
North Harbour 0.90 2.87 -2.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.02 0.91 -0.90
Taranaki -2.24 -4.42 2.20
Otago -4.94 -4.03 -0.90
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.42 -8.71 0.30
Southland -11.60 -14.04 2.40
Manawatu -12.00 -10.57 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 54 – 21 25.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 41 – 19 3.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 22 – 23 15.50 FALSE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 17 – 14 23.00 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 31 – 17 10.60 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 25 – 36 -2.90 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 21 – 39 6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Wellington 3.50
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 Tasman 14.20
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 North Harbour -9.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 Canterbury -5.10
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Auckland 21.70
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 Taranaki 5.70
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 Counties Manukau 3.20

 

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