Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

December 8, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.47 7.35 3.10
Sale Sharks 4.22 4.96 -0.70
Wasps 3.01 5.66 -2.70
Bristol 1.43 1.28 0.10
Bath 0.50 2.14 -1.60
Harlequins -0.37 -1.08 0.70
Gloucester -1.99 -1.02 -1.00
Northampton Saints -2.95 -2.48 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -6.21 -6.14 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.89 -10.00 3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.15 -5.71 -1.40
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 18 – 17 9.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 13 – 35 -10.90 TRUE
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 17 – 27 17.00 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 17 – 33 -1.60 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 13 – 21 -6.70 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 24 – 34 4.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish Dec 27 Bath 12.20
2 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 27 Harlequins 2.70
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 Newcastle Falcons 3.80
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 27 Exeter Chiefs 17.00
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 Northampton Saints 8.70
6 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Dec 28 Sale Sharks 5.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.26 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 3.12 5.66 -2.50
Scarlets 1.88 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.04 0.70 0.30
Cardiff Blues -0.41 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.25 -2.82 -0.40
Treviso -4.26 -3.50 -0.80
Dragons -7.28 -7.85 0.60
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.71 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 31 – 24 11.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 22 – 23 19.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 27 Ulster -1.80
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 27 Cardiff Blues -1.90
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 27 Glasgow Warriors 4.40
4 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Leinster -4.10
5 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Scarlets -0.10
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 27 Treviso -7.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.56 6.16 1.40
Sharks 6.86 5.63 1.20
Western Province 4.57 5.26 -0.70
Lions 1.39 1.46 -0.10
Cheetahs -3.86 -2.96 -0.90
Pumas -7.91 -6.66 -1.20
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Dec 04 22 – 17 5.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Dec 05 40 – 13 14.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Western Province Dec 05 22 – 19 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Dec 11 Western Province 17.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Dec 12 Lions -0.70
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 12 Sharks 3.80

 

December 1, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.86 5.63 1.20
Bulls 6.67 6.16 0.50
Western Province 4.76 5.26 -0.50
Lions 1.21 1.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -7.89 -6.66 -1.20
Griquas -8.64 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 45 – 10 16.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 17 – 20 -5.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 20 – 22 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Dec 04 Pumas 5.30
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Dec 05 Bulls 14.10
3 Lions vs. Western Province Dec 05 Lions 0.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.28 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Glasgow Warriors 3.81 5.66 -1.90
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -4.60 -3.50 -1.10
Dragons -8.01 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.70 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 10 – 19 3.30 FALSE
2 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 19 – 26 11.30 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 14 – 43 4.40 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 52 – 3 32.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 Connacht 11.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 Glasgow Warriors 19.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.85 7.35 2.50
Wasps 4.33 5.66 -1.30
Sale Sharks 4.11 4.96 -0.90
Bristol 1.95 1.28 0.70
Bath -0.27 2.14 -2.40
Harlequins -1.14 -1.08 -0.10
Gloucester -1.22 -1.02 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.47 -2.48 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -5.59 -6.14 0.50
Worcester Warriors -6.37 -5.71 -0.70
London Irish -7.07 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.21 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 15 – 13 -9.00 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 29 – 49 4.60 FALSE
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 30 – 13 12.20 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 40 – 24 -3.00 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 22 – 9 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 Bristol 9.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 Exeter Chiefs -10.90
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 Wasps 17.00
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 Bath -1.60
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 Sale Sharks -6.70
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 Gloucester 4.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.20 6.21 -0.00
Stade Toulousain 5.71 4.80 0.90
Lyon Rugby 5.48 5.61 -0.10
Clermont Auvergne 5.07 3.22 1.90
La Rochelle 4.55 2.32 2.20
RC Toulonnais 3.31 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 3.30 2.83 0.50
Montpellier 1.73 2.30 -0.60
Stade Francais Paris -0.08 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.57 -0.47 -2.10
Section Paloise -3.00 -4.48 1.50
Brive -4.34 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.93 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -9.86 -4.72 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 14 – 40 -0.60 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 36 – 22 14.50 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 20 – 19 11.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 22 – 23 4.70 FALSE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 43 – 17 15.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 18 – 13 12.90 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 63 – 18 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Stade Toulousain -5.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 2.60
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 8.80
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 6.40
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 Section Paloise 5.10
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Stade Francais Paris 2.10
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 Brive -0.00

 

November 24, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.16 6.16 -0.00
Sharks 5.63 5.63 -0.00
Western Province 5.26 5.26 -0.00
Lions 1.46 1.46 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -6.66 -6.66 0.00
Griquas -8.90 -8.90 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 Sharks 16.80
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 Lions -5.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 Western Province 3.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

So this year it is a constant battle to keep up with changes to schedules and I lost a skirmish last week with details of the postponed games. The predictions for last week are what I would have given if I had the match details correct.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.90 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.80 6.21 -0.40
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.58 2.32 2.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.27 3.22 1.10
RC Toulonnais 3.87 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.90 2.83 0.10
Montpellier 2.13 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.50 -3.22 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.78 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.56 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.37 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.53 -4.13 -0.40
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 22 26 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 9 – 6 0.80 TRUE
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 35 – 29 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -0.60
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 La Rochelle 14.50
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Lyon Rugby 11.90
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Montpellier 4.70
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 15.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 12.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 19.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.62 7.35 1.30
Wasps 5.30 5.66 -0.40
Sale Sharks 4.73 4.96 -0.20
Bristol 1.65 1.28 0.40
Bath 0.96 2.14 -1.20
Gloucester -2.20 -1.02 -1.20
Northampton Saints -2.25 -2.48 0.20
Harlequins -2.36 -1.08 -1.30
Leicester Tigers -4.96 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -6.07 -5.71 -0.40
London Irish -7.69 -8.05 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -8.82 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 3 – 33 -3.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 32 – 23 11.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 12 – 19 16.60 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 38 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 11 – 10 6.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 23 – 20 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Sale Sharks -9.00
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 Bristol 12.20
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 Exeter Chiefs 12.20
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 Wasps -3.00
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 London Irish 1.80

 

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