Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

November 12, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.50 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 6.09 7.99 -1.90
Northampton Saints 1.92 0.25 1.70
Sale Sharks 1.42 0.17 1.20
Gloucester 0.92 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.30 1.10 -0.80
Bristol -0.32 -2.77 2.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -2.26 -2.69 0.40
Leicester Tigers -3.48 -1.76 -1.70
London Irish -4.33 -5.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 28 – 18 6.30 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 22 – 13 2.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 12 – 21 -2.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 14 – 19 6.50 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 36 – 11 1.30 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 17 – 20 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -3.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 Exeter Chiefs 11.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 Northampton Saints 9.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 Worcester Warriors 0.80
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 Bristol 8.50
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 Harlequins 2.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.50 12.20 2.30
Munster 9.42 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.88 9.66 -1.80
Connacht 3.09 2.68 0.40
Scarlets 3.07 3.91 -0.80
Ulster 2.34 1.89 0.40
Edinburgh 2.07 1.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.44 -3.38 3.80
Cardiff Blues 0.12 0.54 -0.40
Ospreys -0.84 2.80 -3.60
Treviso -1.63 -1.33 -0.30
Dragons -8.82 -9.31 0.50
Southern Kings -13.67 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 11 – 42 -4.60 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 20 – 7 18.40 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 14 – 16 20.90 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 7 – 31 -18.40 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 30 – 17 4.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 22 – 16 13.40 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 20 – 17 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Nov 30 Munster 13.80
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 30 Ulster 5.80
3 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 01 Treviso 4.70
4 Connacht vs. Southern Kings Dec 01 Connacht 23.30
5 Dragons vs. Zebre Dec 01 Dragons 15.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cheetahs Dec 01 Ospreys 5.20
7 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Dec 01 Leinster -0.10

 

November 5, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.09 9.34 -1.20
Exeter Chiefs 6.92 7.99 -1.10
Northampton Saints 2.33 0.25 2.10
Gloucester 1.33 0.58 0.70
Sale Sharks 1.12 0.17 0.90
Bath -0.12 1.10 -1.20
Wasps -0.69 0.31 -1.00
Harlequins -0.93 -0.81 -0.10
Bristol -1.14 -2.77 1.60
Leicester Tigers -2.30 -1.76 -0.50
Worcester Warriors -2.89 -2.69 -0.20
London Irish -5.50 -5.51 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 16 – 10 1.70 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 40 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 16 – 13 0.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 16 – 13 19.90 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 30 – 22 3.30 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 20 – 24 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 Sale Sharks 6.30
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 Bath 2.00
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 Saracens -2.30
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 Harlequins 6.50
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 London Irish 1.30
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 Exeter Chiefs 12.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.62 12.20 1.40
Munster 10.09 10.73 -0.60
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Connacht 3.98 2.68 1.30
Scarlets 3.49 3.91 -0.40
Edinburgh 2.56 1.24 1.30
Ulster 1.67 1.89 -0.20
Cheetahs 1.19 -3.38 4.60
Ospreys -0.03 2.80 -2.80
Cardiff Blues -0.62 0.54 -1.20
Treviso -2.05 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -9.30 -9.31 0.00
Southern Kings -14.47 -14.70 0.20
Zebre -17.48 -16.93 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 50 – 0 26.70 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 50 – 15 28.20 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 22 – 7 26.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 17 – 13 9.90 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 10 – 20 3.60 FALSE
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 18 – 16 1.90 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 23 – 33 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 Leinster -4.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 Edinburgh 18.40
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 Ospreys 20.90
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 Glasgow Warriors -18.40
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 Cardiff Blues 4.70
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 Munster 13.40
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 Scarlets 12.00

 

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October 29, 2019

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.01 27.60 -0.60
England 23.20 19.78 3.40
South Africa 19.87 18.51 1.40
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 10.32 12.72 -2.40
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 19 – 7 -7.30 FALSE
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 16 – 19 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Wales Nov 01 New Zealand 16.70
2 England vs. South Africa Nov 02 England 3.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.98 9.34 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.04 7.99 -1.00
Northampton Saints 1.69 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.53 0.58 0.90
Sale Sharks 1.40 0.17 1.20
Bath 0.18 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -0.29 -0.81 0.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Bristol -1.42 -2.77 1.40
Leicester Tigers -2.51 -1.76 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -3.02 -2.69 -0.30
London Irish -6.39 -5.51 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 13 – 10 -3.10 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 35 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 25 – 9 5.90 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 22 – 17 5.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 7 – 41 -0.10 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 10 – 24 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 Bristol 1.70
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 Northampton Saints 6.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 Leicester Tigers 0.50
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 Saracens 19.90
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 Wasps 3.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 Exeter Chiefs -5.60

 

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Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.00 12.20 0.80
Munster 9.45 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.56 9.66 -3.10
Scarlets 4.02 3.91 0.10
Connacht 3.42 2.68 0.70
Edinburgh 2.57 1.24 1.30
Ulster 2.17 1.89 0.30
Cheetahs 0.66 -3.38 4.00
Ospreys 0.53 2.80 -2.30
Cardiff Blues 0.01 0.54 -0.50
Treviso -2.07 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.69 -9.31 0.60
Southern Kings -13.66 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 28 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 23 – 14 8.60 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 18 – 5 -10.40 FALSE
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 36 – 30 19.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 24 – 22 10.90 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 0 – 3 -26.10 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 46 – 7 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 Glasgow Warriors 26.70
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 Leinster 28.20
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 Ulster 26.60
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 Scarlets 9.90
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 Ospreys 3.60
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 Treviso 1.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 Munster -2.90

 

October 22, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this weekend’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 28.74 27.60 1.10
England 21.46 19.78 1.70
South Africa 20.59 18.51 2.10
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 9.61 12.72 -3.10
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.7%.
Here are the predictions for last weekend’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 40 – 16 12.90 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 46 – 14 15.10 TRUE
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 20 – 19 5.10 TRUE
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 3 – 26 -18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 New Zealand -7.30
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 South Africa -11.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.59 9.00 10.60
Canterbury 11.92 12.92 -1.00
Auckland 10.73 11.57 -0.80
Wellington 10.37 10.92 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 10.21 -4.82 15.00
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.09 -5.69 4.60
Otago -6.19 -1.49 -4.70
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -15.28 -11.67 -3.60
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 64 – 3 22.60 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 44 – 39 14.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 30 – 19 8.70 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 18 – 9 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Bay of Plenty 15.30
2 Tasman vs. Wellington Oct 26 Tasman 13.20

 

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