Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

February 19, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.73 17.67 -0.90
Hurricanes 9.28 9.43 -0.10
Lions 8.55 8.28 0.30
Chiefs 7.89 8.56 -0.70
Highlanders 4.67 4.01 0.70
Waratahs 2.15 2.00 0.10
Sharks 1.80 0.45 1.40
Jaguares -0.53 -0.26 -0.30
Brumbies -1.06 0.00 -1.10
Bulls -1.58 -3.79 2.20
Blues -2.48 -3.42 0.90
Stormers -2.61 -0.39 -2.20
Rebels -6.19 -7.26 1.10
Reds -8.19 -8.19 -0.00
Sunwolves -17.43 -16.08 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 15 27 – 30 8.00 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 15 27 – 34 10.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 16 22 – 24 -17.60 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Feb 16 19 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks Feb 16 10 – 45 -12.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 16 40 – 3 0.10 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 16 16 – 25 -4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 22 Highlanders 16.90
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Feb 23 Waratahs -15.60
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Crusaders 11.00
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Feb 23 Chiefs -5.00
5 Sharks vs. Blues Feb 23 Sharks 8.30
6 Stormers vs. Lions Feb 23 Lions -7.70
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls Feb 23 Jaguares 5.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.41 11.19 0.20
Exeter Chiefs 10.26 11.13 -0.90
Northampton Saints 4.98 3.42 1.60
Wasps 4.31 8.30 -4.00
Harlequins 3.31 2.05 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 2.94 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.78 6.26 -3.50
Bath Rugby 2.40 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.48 -0.81 1.30
Worcester Warriors -2.96 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.97 -5.60 1.60
Newcastle Falcons -4.36 -3.51 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 30 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 22 – 29 -1.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 24 – 17 -2.80 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 47 – 33 11.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 67 – 17 7.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 33 – 10 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 23 Exeter Chiefs 20.10
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Saracens Feb 23 Saracens -3.00
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol Feb 23 Harlequins 12.80
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Rugby Feb 23 Northampton Saints 8.10
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Feb 23 Wasps 9.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 23 Leicester Tigers -0.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.16 9.80 2.40
Munster 10.59 8.08 2.50
Glasgow Warriors 7.44 8.55 -1.10
Scarlets 2.70 6.39 -3.70
Connacht 2.61 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.70 -0.86 1.60
Edinburgh 0.51 -0.64 1.10
Cardiff Blues 0.43 0.24 0.20
Ulster -0.10 2.07 -2.20
Cheetahs -1.86 -0.83 -1.00
Treviso -2.18 -5.19 3.00
Dragons -8.37 -8.59 0.20
Southern Kings -10.60 -7.91 -2.70
Zebre -13.48 -10.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 0 – 8 6.50 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Feb 16 34 – 17 12.70 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 16 43 – 0 24.20 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Leinster Feb 17 24 – 40 -22.10 TRUE
5 Treviso vs. Scarlets Feb 17 25 – 19 -1.60 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Feb 17 25 – 17 9.20 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 17 34 – 38 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Connacht Feb 23 Glasgow Warriors 9.30
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Feb 23 Munster -5.40
3 Leinster vs. Southern Kings Feb 23 Leinster 27.30
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Feb 24 Treviso 10.70
5 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 24 Edinburgh 4.60
6 Ulster vs. Zebre Feb 24 Ulster 17.90
7 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 Scarlets 9.10

 

February 8, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.67 17.67 0.00
Hurricanes 9.43 9.43 0.00
Chiefs 8.56 8.56 0.00
Lions 8.28 8.28 -0.00
Highlanders 4.01 4.01 0.00
Waratahs 2.00 2.00 -0.00
Sharks 0.45 0.45 0.00
Brumbies 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Jaguares -0.26 -0.26 0.00
Stormers -0.39 -0.39 0.00
Blues -3.42 -3.42 0.00
Bulls -3.79 -3.79 0.00
Rebels -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Reds -8.19 -8.19 -0.00
Sunwolves -16.08 -16.08 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 15 Chiefs 8.00
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 15 Brumbies 10.80
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 16 Crusaders -17.60
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Feb 16 Hurricanes -3.40
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks Feb 16 Sharks -12.50
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 16 Bulls 0.10
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 16 Lions -4.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.90 11.19 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 10.76 11.13 -0.40
Wasps 3.85 8.30 -4.40
Northampton Saints 3.46 3.42 0.00
Leicester Tigers 3.28 6.26 -3.00
Harlequins 3.07 2.05 1.00
Gloucester Rugby 2.44 1.23 1.20
Sale Sharks 2.00 -0.81 2.80
Bath Rugby 1.88 3.11 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -5.18 2.50
Bristol -3.51 -5.60 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -3.83 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Jan 04 24 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 05 14 – 9 21.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby Jan 05 34 – 16 5.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 05 17 – 38 0.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby Jan 05 21 – 19 0.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 27 – 16 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 Bath Rugby 11.20
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 Wasps -1.90
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 Exeter Chiefs -2.80
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 Harlequins 11.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 Northampton Saints 7.00
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 Saracens 13.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.96 -0.83 -1.10
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -9.87 -7.91 -2.00
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 40 – 36 13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 Ospreys 6.50
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Feb 16 Edinburgh 12.70
3 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 16 Munster 24.20
4 Zebre vs. Leinster Feb 17 Leinster -22.10
5 Treviso vs. Scarlets Feb 17 Scarlets -1.60
6 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Feb 17 Connacht 9.20
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 17 Glasgow Warriors -2.20

 

January 29, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 12 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.53 -0.83 -0.70
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -10.30 -7.91 -2.40
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Jan 26 9 – 3 11.40 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jan 26 22 – 17 14.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Treviso Jan 26 17 – 17 7.80 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Zebre Jan 27 61 – 28 15.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 27 7 – 8 -14.50 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Jan 27 25 – 21 -6.90 FALSE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Jan 27 8 – 7 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 Cheetahs 13.30

 

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January 24, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.09 9.80 3.30
Munster 10.43 8.08 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.73 8.55 -0.80
Scarlets 2.87 6.39 -3.50
Connacht 2.57 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.70 0.24 0.50
Edinburgh 0.65 -0.64 1.30
Ulster -0.07 2.07 -2.10
Cheetahs -2.21 -0.83 -1.40
Treviso -3.42 -5.19 1.80
Dragons -8.59 -8.59 0.00
Southern Kings -10.78 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -13.28 -10.57 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 20 17 – 24 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Jan 26 Glasgow Warriors 11.40
2 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jan 26 Leinster 14.70
3 Ulster vs. Treviso Jan 26 Ulster 7.80
4 Cheetahs vs. Zebre Jan 27 Cheetahs 15.60
5 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 27 Munster -14.50
6 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Jan 27 Edinburgh -6.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Jan 27 Cardiff Blues 2.60

 

January 9, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 11 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.09 9.80 3.30
Munster 10.43 8.08 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.73 8.55 -0.80
Scarlets 2.87 6.39 -3.50
Connacht 2.57 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.70 0.24 0.50
Edinburgh 0.65 -0.64 1.30
Ulster -0.07 2.07 -2.10
Cheetahs -2.49 -0.83 -1.70
Treviso -3.42 -5.19 1.80
Dragons -8.59 -8.59 0.00
Southern Kings -10.50 -7.91 -2.60
Zebre -13.28 -10.57 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 05 20 – 11 3.80 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 06 20 – 17 -7.60 FALSE
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 06 40 – 7 16.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 06 22 – 13 17.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 06 24 – 31 -2.70 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 06 38 – 0 13.90 TRUE
7 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 07 12 – 27 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 20 Cheetahs -3.50

 

December 31, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.49 11.13 0.40
Saracens 11.43 11.19 0.20
Northampton Saints 4.03 3.42 0.60
Wasps 3.28 8.30 -5.00
Gloucester Rugby 3.05 1.23 1.80
Leicester Tigers 2.67 6.26 -3.60
Harlequins 2.17 2.05 0.10
Bath Rugby 2.00 3.11 -1.10
Sale Sharks 1.47 -0.81 2.30
Worcester Warriors -2.83 -5.18 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -2.94 -3.51 0.60
Bristol -4.23 -5.60 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 28 31 – 28 -3.10 FALSE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 15 – 30 9.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Wasps Dec 29 20 – 13 3.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 29 25 – 17 21.00 TRUE
5 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 30 23 – 16 4.40 TRUE
6 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 30 35 – 28 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Jan 04 Saracens -4.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 05 Exeter Chiefs 21.20
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 5.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 05 Newcastle Falcons 0.40
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby Jan 05 Worcester Warriors 0.70
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 Wasps 4.80

 

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