Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

June 4, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.55 6.03 3.50
Roosters 7.64 8.72 -1.10
Rabbitohs 6.03 3.89 2.10
Raiders 2.37 1.81 0.60
Broncos 2.20 2.63 -0.40
Sharks 1.09 3.90 -2.80
Knights 0.88 -8.51 9.40
Cowboys -1.36 0.15 -1.50
Warriors -1.69 -0.27 -1.40
Wests Tigers -2.77 -5.57 2.80
Sea Eagles -3.24 -5.61 2.40
Eels -3.38 -6.17 2.80
Titans -4.30 -3.36 -0.90
Dragons -4.35 0.06 -4.40
Bulldogs -4.96 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.72 0.93 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 30 15 – 12 0.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 31 26 – 14 -9.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jun 01 10 – 12 -4.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 4 – 6 0.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 07 Rabbitohs 8.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 07 Raiders -2.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 08 Storm -6.70
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 08 Sharks 7.50
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 08 Cowboys 4.90
6 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 09 Broncos 9.50
7 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 09 Roosters -10.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 10 Bulldogs 2.40

 

May 28, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.19 17.67 -1.50
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Highlanders 3.49 4.01 -0.50
Jaguares 3.19 -0.26 3.50
Sharks 1.84 0.45 1.40
Lions 1.79 8.28 -6.50
Chiefs 1.51 8.56 -7.00
Stormers 1.12 -0.39 1.50
Brumbies 1.08 0.00 1.10
Blues -0.09 -3.42 3.30
Waratahs -0.36 2.00 -2.40
Bulls -0.92 -3.79 2.90
Rebels -1.89 -7.26 5.40
Reds -5.56 -8.19 2.60
Sunwolves -17.58 -16.08 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 24 19 – 13 11.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 24 22 – 10 5.20 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Rebels May 25 7 – 52 -7.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 19 – 11 21.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Jaguares May 25 15 – 23 1.60 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 25 34 – 22 0.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Lions May 25 27 – 17 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Bulls May 31 Blues 4.80
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 31 Rebels 2.00
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -14.70
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 01 Crusaders -14.70
5 Reds vs. Jaguares Jun 01 Jaguares -4.80
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 Hurricanes -1.40
7 Lions vs. Stormers Jun 01 Lions 4.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.16 11.19 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 10.40 11.13 -0.70
Northampton Saints 4.09 3.42 0.70
Bath Rugby 3.47 3.11 0.40
Gloucester Rugby 3.21 1.23 2.00
Harlequins 2.39 2.05 0.30
Wasps 1.76 8.30 -6.50
Sale Sharks 1.56 -0.81 2.40
Leicester Tigers -0.33 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -1.28 -5.18 3.90
Bristol -1.29 -5.60 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -3.55 -3.51 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 26 44 – 19 12.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 26 42 – 12 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 02 Saracens -0.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.55 6.03 3.50
Roosters 7.64 8.72 -1.10
Rabbitohs 7.53 3.89 3.60
Raiders 2.56 1.81 0.80
Broncos 2.20 2.63 -0.40
Sharks 1.09 3.90 -2.80
Knights 0.88 -8.51 9.40
Cowboys -1.53 0.15 -1.70
Warriors -1.69 -0.27 -1.40
Wests Tigers -2.77 -5.57 2.80
Sea Eagles -3.04 -5.61 2.60
Titans -4.13 -3.36 -0.80
Dragons -4.35 0.06 -4.40
Eels -4.88 -6.17 1.30
Bulldogs -5.15 -0.61 -4.50
Panthers -5.92 0.93 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers May 23 10 – 16 5.70 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 24 18 – 36 7.70 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Roosters May 24 38 – 12 -8.60 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 16 – 22 9.20 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Broncos May 25 2 – 8 1.70 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 25 32 – 16 12.90 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 26 6 – 28 -10.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks May 26 9 – 22 -0.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 30 Panthers 0.10
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 31 Rabbitohs -9.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jun 01 Raiders -4.70
4 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Titans 0.40

 

May 21, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.00 17.67 -0.70
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Highlanders 4.20 4.01 0.20
Jaguares 2.61 -0.26 2.90
Lions 2.23 8.28 -6.10
Chiefs 1.86 8.56 -6.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Stormers 0.41 -0.39 0.80
Waratahs 0.21 2.00 -1.80
Bulls -0.51 -3.79 3.30
Blues -0.90 -3.42 2.50
Rebels -4.16 -7.26 3.10
Reds -5.91 -8.19 2.30
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 20 – 28 10.80 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 23 – 8 -1.20 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 17 – 32 2.40 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 32 – 40 -1.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 38 – 29 1.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 19 – 19 -14.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 24 Chiefs 11.80
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 24 Brumbies 5.20
3 Sunwolves vs. Rebels May 25 Rebels -7.20
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 Crusaders 21.40
5 Waratahs vs. Jaguares May 25 Waratahs 1.60
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 25 Stormers 0.20
7 Sharks vs. Lions May 25 Sharks 2.70

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.55 11.19 -0.60
Exeter Chiefs 9.55 11.13 -1.60
Northampton Saints 4.94 3.42 1.50
Gloucester Rugby 3.82 1.23 2.60
Bath Rugby 3.47 3.11 0.40
Harlequins 2.39 2.05 0.30
Wasps 1.76 8.30 -6.50
Sale Sharks 1.56 -0.81 2.40
Leicester Tigers -0.33 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -1.28 -5.18 3.90
Bristol -1.29 -5.60 4.30
Newcastle Falcons -3.55 -3.51 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 18 40 – 21 9.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Rugby May 18 31 – 32 2.30 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol May 18 12 – 19 4.40 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Rugby May 18 46 – 41 2.90 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins May 18 27 – 25 5.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 18 31 – 29 -7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 26 Saracens 12.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 26 Exeter Chiefs 10.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Glasgow Warriors 9.88 8.55 1.30
Leinster 9.88 9.80 0.10
Munster 9.40 8.08 1.30
Connacht 2.67 0.01 2.70
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 1.71 2.07 -0.40
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso 0.21 -5.19 5.40
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 151 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster May 18 50 – 20 11.20 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 19 24 – 9 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster May 26 Glasgow Warriors 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.07 8.72 1.40
Storm 8.71 6.03 2.70
Rabbitohs 7.31 3.89 3.40
Raiders 3.62 1.81 1.80
Broncos 1.67 2.63 -1.00
Sharks 0.23 3.90 -3.70
Warriors -1.15 -0.27 -0.90
Sea Eagles -1.24 -5.61 4.40
Knights -1.54 -8.51 7.00
Wests Tigers -2.55 -5.57 3.00
Cowboys -2.60 0.15 -2.80
Dragons -3.49 0.06 -3.50
Eels -4.06 -6.17 2.10
Bulldogs -4.31 -0.61 -3.70
Titans -5.93 -3.36 -2.60
Panthers -6.74 0.93 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 24 – 22 16.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 10 – 30 2.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 15 – 10 -7.10 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 16 – 22 2.60 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 17 – 10 4.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 12 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 12 – 45 6.60 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 14 – 24 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers May 23 Eels 5.70
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 24 Sea Eagles 7.70
3 Knights vs. Roosters May 24 Roosters -8.60
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 Raiders 9.20
5 Warriors vs. Broncos May 25 Warriors 1.70
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 25 Rabbitohs 12.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 26 Storm -10.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks May 26 Sharks -0.70

 

May 15, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Round 9 games all being played in Brisbane caused problems for me again. I had changed the order of the teams for the Sea Eagles versus Broncos game to give them home ground advantage which then impacted my routines for webscraping results and adding them to my database. I thought I had corrected the resulting errors but missed one. Since that affected the updated ratings and the predictions for Round 10, I have updated the whole post.

Thanks to Chad James for advising me of the error.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Knights -4.31 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -4.91 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 10 – 22 1.30 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -3.60 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 2.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 6.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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May 14, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.86 17.67 0.20
Hurricanes 8.33 9.43 -1.10
Highlanders 4.68 4.01 0.70
Chiefs 2.83 8.56 -5.70
Lions 1.75 8.28 -6.50
Jaguares 1.48 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Waratahs -0.15 2.00 -2.20
Stormers -0.45 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -1.56 -3.79 2.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.11 -7.26 4.10
Reds -5.54 -8.19 2.60
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 10 12 – 22 -6.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds May 10 30 – 24 5.90 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Crusaders May 10 13 – 45 -13.20 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Jaguares May 11 32 – 27 7.50 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Sharks May 11 29 – 23 5.40 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Waratahs May 11 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 12 33 – 0 18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 Hurricanes 10.80
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 Chiefs -1.20
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 Rebels 2.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -1.90
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 Lions 1.10
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -14.30

 

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