Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

August 28, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.95 15.32 -1.40
Wellington 12.23 12.18 0.10
Taranaki 5.23 6.58 -1.40
North Harbour 4.93 6.42 -1.50
Tasman 3.07 2.62 0.50
Bay of Plenty 3.03 0.27 2.80
Auckland 1.33 -0.50 1.80
Counties Manukau 0.88 1.84 -1.00
Otago -1.83 0.33 -2.20
Waikato -3.10 -3.24 0.10
Northland -3.91 -3.45 -0.50
Manawatu -4.83 -4.36 -0.50
Hawke’s Bay -9.71 -13.00 3.30
Southland -23.46 -23.17 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 23 17 – 22 3.40 FALSE
2 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 24 25 – 31 15.80 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Aug 24 41 – 21 12.70 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 25 27 – 20 5.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 25 28 – 29 -4.70 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 26 45 – 24 32.60 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 26 12 – 28 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 29 Taranaki -0.30
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 8.40
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 31 Wellington 39.70
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -6.90
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 01 Manawatu 1.00
6 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 01 North Harbour 5.90
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Counties Manukau -6.60
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 02 Taranaki -5.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.44 4.66 0.80
Sharks 4.56 4.18 0.40
Lions 3.46 3.23 0.20
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 1.42 0.94 0.50
Pumas -7.77 -8.36 0.60
Griquas -10.60 -9.78 -0.80
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Aug 24 62 – 41 18.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 26 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 25 32 – 0 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Aug 31 Western Province -8.70
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 01 Blue Bulls 2.50
3 Cheetahs2 vs. Sharks Sep 01 Sharks -30.10

 

August 21, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.54 16.73 -7.20
Roosters 6.10 0.13 6.00
Sharks 4.16 2.20 2.00
Broncos 2.79 4.78 -2.00
Rabbitohs 2.33 -3.90 6.20
Raiders 1.26 3.50 -2.20
Panthers -0.35 2.64 -3.00
Dragons -0.83 -0.45 -0.40
Warriors -1.25 -6.97 5.70
Eels -1.47 1.51 -3.00
Cowboys -2.62 2.97 -5.60
Wests Tigers -2.94 -3.63 0.70
Bulldogs -3.16 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.18 -1.07 -3.10
Titans -4.47 -8.91 4.40
Knights -7.22 -8.43 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 16 38 – 18 0.80 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Aug 17 34 – 42 5.10 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Eels Aug 17 20 – 4 13.70 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 18 12 – 20 12.80 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 18 10 – 20 2.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 18 28 – 16 9.40 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 19 27 – 26 2.90 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 19 14 – 12 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 23 Wests Tigers 4.20
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 24 Warriors 3.60
3 Cowboys vs. Eels Aug 24 Cowboys 1.80
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Aug 25 Raiders 1.90
5 Titans vs. Storm Aug 25 Storm -11.00
6 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 25 Roosters 6.30
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 26 Sharks 14.40
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 Dragons 5.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.81 15.32 -1.50
Wellington 12.37 12.18 0.20
North Harbour 5.26 6.42 -1.20
Taranaki 4.57 6.58 -2.00
Tasman 4.12 2.62 1.50
Bay of Plenty 2.27 0.27 2.00
Counties Manukau 1.63 1.84 -0.20
Otago 0.13 0.33 -0.20
Auckland -0.29 -0.50 0.20
Northland -2.29 -3.45 1.20
Waikato -3.43 -3.24 -0.20
Manawatu -4.17 -4.36 0.20
Hawke’s Bay -11.67 -13.00 1.30
Southland -24.51 -23.17 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Northland Aug 16 21 – 20 13.90 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 25 – 17 -8.70 FALSE
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 18 24 – 19 2.90 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 23 – 19 1.70 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 18 30 – 10 -2.30 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 19 34 – 16 15.80 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 19 10 – 31 -6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 23 Counties Manukau 3.40
2 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 24 Otago 15.80
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Aug 24 Taranaki 12.70
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 25 Canterbury 5.40
5 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 25 North Harbour -4.70
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 26 Tasman 32.60
7 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 26 Northland 2.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.66 4.66 -0.00
Sharks 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Lions 3.23 3.23 -0.00
Cheetahs 3.01 3.86 -0.80
Blue Bulls 1.79 0.94 0.90
Pumas -7.77 -8.36 0.60
Griquas -10.37 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 17 12 – 34 7.40 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 18 42 – 19 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Aug 24 Lions 18.10
2 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 Sharks 6.90
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 25 Western Province 6.20

 

August 16, 2018

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.66 4.66 -0.00
Sharks 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Cheetahs 3.86 3.86 0.00
Lions 3.23 3.23 -0.00
Blue Bulls 0.94 0.94 0.00
Pumas -8.36 -8.36 -0.00
Griquas -9.78 -9.78 0.00
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 17 Cheetahs 7.40
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 18 Pumas 5.90

 

August 14, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.38 16.73 -7.40
Roosters 6.41 0.13 6.30
Sharks 3.98 2.20 1.80
Rabbitohs 3.67 -3.90 7.60
Broncos 1.45 4.78 -3.30
Panthers 1.11 2.64 -1.50
Raiders 0.95 3.50 -2.60
Eels -1.31 1.51 -2.80
Warriors -1.38 -6.97 5.60
Dragons -1.72 -0.45 -1.30
Wests Tigers -2.06 -3.63 1.60
Cowboys -2.44 2.97 -5.40
Bulldogs -3.03 -3.43 0.40
Sea Eagles -3.26 -1.07 -2.20
Titans -5.39 -8.91 3.50
Knights -8.68 -8.43 -0.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 34 – 30 -1.70 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 10 20 – 4 11.10 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Aug 10 14 – 18 0.90 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 11 16 – 17 -3.90 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 11 18 – 6 1.30 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 11 40 – 4 -1.90 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 12 20 – 22 7.30 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 12 14 – 17 10.30 FALSE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 16 Broncos 0.80
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Aug 17 Sea Eagles 5.10
3 Storm vs. Eels Aug 17 Storm 13.70
4 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 18 Panthers 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 18 Wests Tigers 2.70
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 18 Sharks 9.40
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 19 Bulldogs 2.90
8 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 19 Roosters -2.50

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.32 15.32 0.00
Wellington 12.18 12.18 0.00
Taranaki 6.58 6.58 0.00
North Harbour 6.42 6.42 0.00
Tasman 2.62 2.62 0.00
Counties Manukau 1.84 1.84 0.00
Otago 0.33 0.33 0.00
Bay of Plenty 0.27 0.27 0.00
Auckland -0.50 -0.50 0.00
Waikato -3.24 -3.24 0.00
Northland -3.45 -3.45 0.00
Manawatu -4.36 -4.36 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.00 -13.00 0.00
Southland -23.17 -23.17 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Northland Aug 16 North Harbour 13.90
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 Canterbury -8.70
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 18 Manawatu 2.90
4 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 Auckland 1.70
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 18 Taranaki -2.30
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 19 Wellington 15.80
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 19 Hawke’s Bay -6.20

 

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August 7, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.30 16.73 -6.40
Roosters 6.07 0.13 5.90
Rabbitohs 4.02 -3.90 7.90
Sharks 3.05 2.20 0.80
Broncos 1.84 4.78 -2.90
Raiders 1.60 3.50 -1.90
Panthers 1.31 2.64 -1.30
Dragons 0.93 -0.45 1.40
Warriors -1.72 -6.97 5.30
Bulldogs -2.27 -3.43 1.20
Wests Tigers -2.71 -3.63 0.90
Cowboys -2.84 2.97 -5.80
Eels -3.96 1.51 -5.50
Sea Eagles -4.01 -1.07 -2.90
Titans -5.59 -8.91 3.30
Knights -8.34 -8.43 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 02 36 – 22 -3.60 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 03 16 – 25 -1.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 03 30 – 20 -5.40 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 04 12 – 18 9.30 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Titans Aug 04 28 – 12 2.80 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 04 26 – 20 12.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 32 – 33 11.90 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 05 40 – 31 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 Broncos -1.70
2 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 10 Warriors 11.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Aug 10 Rabbitohs 0.90
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 11 Panthers -3.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 11 Sea Eagles 1.30
6 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 11 Dragons -1.90
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 12 Raiders 7.30
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 12 Storm 10.30

 

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July 31, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.10 15.23 2.90
Hurricanes 10.29 16.18 -5.90
Lions 9.23 13.81 -4.60
Chiefs 9.12 9.29 -0.20
Highlanders 4.58 10.29 -5.70
Waratahs 1.88 -3.92 5.80
Sharks 0.58 1.02 -0.40
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Jaguares -0.22 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 28 30 – 12 10.40 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Waratahs Jul 29 44 – 26 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Aug 04 Crusaders 12.90

 

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