Super 15 Predictions, Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.37 | 10.46 | -1.10 |
| Bulls | 7.19 | 4.16 | 3.00 |
| Stormers | 7.03 | 6.59 | 0.40 |
| Chiefs | 3.28 | -1.17 | 4.40 |
| Waratahs | 0.76 | 4.98 | -4.20 |
| Sharks | -0.03 | 0.87 | -0.90 |
| Blues | -0.71 | 2.87 | -3.60 |
| Hurricanes | -1.37 | -1.90 | 0.50 |
| Cheetahs | -1.90 | -1.46 | -0.40 |
| Highlanders | -2.60 | -5.69 | 3.10 |
| Brumbies | -3.09 | -6.66 | 3.60 |
| Reds | -3.20 | 5.03 | -8.20 |
| Force | -4.42 | -4.95 | 0.50 |
| Lions | -9.90 | -10.82 | 0.90 |
| Rebels | -13.72 | -15.64 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Apr 20 | 30 – 27 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Stormers | Apr 20 | 13 – 23 | -4.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Apr 21 | 14 – 42 | -2.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Apr 21 | 30 – 21 | 20.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Chiefs | Apr 21 | 12 – 18 | 2.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Brumbies | Apr 21 | 36 – 34 | 17.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Reds | Apr 27 | Blues | 7.00 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Brumbies | Apr 27 | Brumbies | -2.30 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Apr 28 | Chiefs | 9.20 |
| 4 | Force vs. Stormers | Apr 28 | Stormers | -7.00 |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Highlanders | Apr 28 | Cheetahs | 5.20 |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | Crusaders | -4.10 |