Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

March 23, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.65 10.46 -2.80
Stormers 6.23 6.59 -0.40
Bulls 5.17 4.16 1.00
Reds 3.10 5.03 -1.90
Blues 2.79 2.87 -0.10
Waratahs 2.72 4.98 -2.30
Sharks 1.51 0.87 0.60
Chiefs 0.23 -1.17 1.40
Hurricanes -0.49 -1.90 1.40
Highlanders -2.41 -5.69 3.30
Cheetahs -4.21 -1.46 -2.70
Force -5.16 -4.95 -0.20
Brumbies -6.42 -6.66 0.20
Lions -9.78 -10.82 1.00
Rebels -14.22 -15.64 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 16 29 – 22 11.90 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 16 27 – 17 7.50 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 17 17 – 19 8.00 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 17 20 – 21 14.90 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 17 27 – 22 2.50 TRUE
6 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 26 – 33 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 23 Blues 7.80
2 Rebels vs. Force Mar 23 Force -4.60
3 Waratahs vs. Sharks Mar 24 Waratahs 5.70
4 Crusaders vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 Crusaders 16.40
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 24 Brumbies 0.50
6 Bulls vs. Reds Mar 24 Bulls 6.60
7 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 24 Stormers -11.50

 


March 15, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Sea Eagles 9.70 9.83
Warriors 5.68 5.28
Broncos 4.78 5.57
Storm 4.71 4.63
Wests Tigers 3.84 4.52
Dragons 2.35 4.36
Knights 1.35 0.77
Bulldogs 1.18 -1.86
Rabbitohs -0.98 0.04
Roosters -1.30 0.25
Panthers -2.06 -3.40
Cowboys -2.63 -1.32
Eels -5.64 -4.23
Raiders -6.88 -8.40
Sharks -7.43 -7.97
Titans -10.40 -11.8

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dragons Mar 01 14 – 15 0.91 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 02 6 – 18 -5.30 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 03 19 – 24 -8.53 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 03 14 – 22 2.96 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 03 0 – 18 14.98 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 04 20 – 26 -0.05 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 04 17 – 16 16.99 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 05 20 – 24 4.29 FALSE
9 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Mar 09 22 – 18 11.56 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 09 26 – 28 14.56 FALSE
11 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 10 12 – 24 3.45 FALSE
12 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 10 30 – 4 -0.99 FALSE
13 Sharks vs. Knights Mar 11 6 – 18 -2.81 TRUE
14 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 11 0 – 18 9.69 FALSE
15 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 24 – 10 9.47 TRUE
16 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 12 20 – 36 -5.07 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Dragons 3.00
2 Knights vs. Broncos Mar 16 Knights 1.10
3 Titans vs. Storm Mar 17 Storm -10.60
4 Cowboys vs. Eels Mar 17 Cowboys 7.50
5 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 18 Warriors 9.00
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 18 Roosters 10.10
7 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 Panthers 3.40
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Mar 19 Sea Eagles -12.60

Super 15 Predictions, Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 7.65 10.46
Stormers 6.03 6.59
Bulls 5.17 4.16
Waratahs 3.99 4.98
Reds 3.29 5.03
Blues 2.99 2.87
Sharks 1.31 0.87
Chiefs 0.63 -1.17
Hurricanes 0.31 -1.90
Highlanders -3.22 -5.69
Cheetahs -4.36 -1.46
Force -6.44 -4.95
Brumbies -6.82 -6.66
Lions -9.78 -10.82
Rebels -14.08 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE
8 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 02 29 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
9 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 02 19 – 35 -15.40 TRUE
10 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 02 28 – 30 -3.90 TRUE
11 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 03 27 – 24 -10.40 FALSE
12 Reds vs. Force Mar 03 25 – 20 15.10 TRUE
13 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 03 19 – 51 -1.40 TRUE
14 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 03 15 – 12 10.00 TRUE
15 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 19 – 24 14.70 FALSE
16 Force vs. Hurricanes Mar 09 19 – 46 2.50 FALSE
17 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Mar 10 24 – 23 2.20 TRUE
18 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 10 18 – 17 -3.40 FALSE
19 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 10 11 – 6 25.10 TRUE
20 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 10 32 – 20 16.30 TRUE
21 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 10 23 – 29 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Chiefs 11.90
2 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 16 Stormers 7.50
3 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 17 Hurricanes 8.00
4 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 17 Waratahs 14.90
5 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 17 Sharks 2.50
6 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 Cheetahs -5.20

 

 

March 9, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page
to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Sea Eagles 10.30 9.83
Broncos 6.10 5.57
Warriors 4.80 5.28
Dragons 4.51 4.36
Storm 4.34 4.63
Wests Tigers 3.24 4.52
Roosters 0.92 0.25
Knights 0.62 0.77
Rabbitohs -0.62 0.04
Bulldogs -0.98 -1.86
Cowboys -3.96 -1.32
Panthers -4.28 -3.40
Eels -4.77 -4.23
Sharks -6.69 -7.97
Raiders -8.12 -8.40
Titans -9.16 -11.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dragons  Mar 01 14 – 15 0.91 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Broncos  Mar 02 6 – 18 -5.30 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Storm  Mar 03 19 – 24 -8.53 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs  Mar 03 14 – 22 2.96 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans  Mar 03 0 – 18 14.98 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles  Mar 04 20 – 26 -0.05 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks  Mar 04 17 – 16 16.99 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters  Mar 05 20 – 24 4.29 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers  Mar 09 Sea Eagles 11.60
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys  Mar 09 Broncos 14.60
3 Titans vs. Raiders  Mar 10 Titans 3.50
4 Bulldogs vs. Dragons  Mar 10 Dragons -1.00
5 Sharks vs. Knights  Mar 11 Knights -2.80
6 Roosters vs. Panthers  Mar 11 Roosters 9.70
7 Storm vs. Rabbitohs  Mar 11 Storm 9.50
8 Eels vs. Warriors  Mar 12 Warriors -5.10

 

Super 15 Predictions, Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
I have created a brief description of the method I use
for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department
home page
to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 9.22 10.46
Bulls 6.38 4.16
Stormers 6.03 6.59
Reds 4.90 5.03
Waratahs 4.35 4.98
Blues 1.78 2.87
Sharks 1.66 0.87
Chiefs -0.95 -1.17
Hurricanes -2.05 -1.90
Highlanders -3.57 -5.69
Force -4.08 -4.95
Cheetahs -4.45 -1.46
Brumbies -6.72 -6.66
Lions -10.12 -10.82
Rebels -15.68 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE
8 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 02 29 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
9 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 02 19 – 35 -15.40 TRUE
10 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 02 28 – 30 -3.90 TRUE
11 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 03 27 – 24 -10.40 FALSE
12 Reds vs. Force Mar 03 25 – 20 15.10 TRUE
13 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 03 19 – 51 -1.40 TRUE
14 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 03 15 – 12 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Crusaders 14.70
2 Force vs. Hurricanes Mar 09 Force 2.50
3 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Mar 10 Brumbies 2.20
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Waratahs -3.40
5 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 10 Reds 25.10
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 10 Sharks 16.30
7 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 10 Bulls 9.10


 

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March 1, 2012

NRL Predictions, Week 1

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I will be producing predictions for the NRL this year as well as for the Super 15.

Ratings at the Beginning of the 2012 NRL Season

Here are the team ratings at the start of the NRL season.


Rating
Sea Eagles 9.83
Broncos 5.57
Warriors 5.28
Storm 4.63
Wests Tigers 4.52
Dragons 4.36
Knights 0.77
Roosters 0.25
Rabbitohs 0.04
Cowboys -1.32
Bulldogs -1.86
Panthers -3.40
Eels -4.23
Sharks -7.97
Raiders -8.40
Titans -11.80

 

Predictions for Round 1

I got caught out with the game starting tonight. I thought I had another day before producing my predictions. Anyway, here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dragons Mar 01 Knights 0.90
2 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 02 Broncos -5.30
3 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 03 Storm -8.50
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 03 Panthers 3.00
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 03 Cowboys 15.00
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 04 Sea Eagles -0.00
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 04 Wests Tigers 17.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 05 Rabbitohs 4.30

 

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Super 15 Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Interestingly for 3 teams the ratings have not changed. That is because the Rebels had a bye, and for the Stormers versus Hurricanes, I got the margin correct (rounded to 2 decimal places). My predicted margin was also very close for the Brumbies versus Force game.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 10.29 10.46
Stormers 6.59 6.59
Reds 5.71 5.03
Waratahs 4.30 4.98
Bulls 3.94 4.16
Blues 3.04 2.87
Sharks 1.10 0.87
Hurricanes -1.90 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.01 -1.46
Chiefs -2.21 -1.17
Highlanders -4.65 -5.69
Force -4.89 -4.95
Brumbies -6.72 -6.66
Lions -10.27 -10.82
Rebels -15.64 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 20 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 20 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 20 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 20 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 20 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 20 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 20 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 20 Blues -0.70
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 20 Waratahs -15.40
3 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -3.90
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 20 Crusaders -10.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 20 Reds 15.10
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 20 Bulls -1.40
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 20 Stormers 10.00

 

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February 24, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Round 1

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Super Rugby is on again and I will be giving my predictions each week.

Team Ratings for Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to week 1. Most notable is the low ranking for the Reds. They did well last year but were poor before that.

Rating
Crusaders 10.46
Stormers 6.59
Reds 5.03
Waratahs 4.98
Bulls 4.16
Blues 2.87
Sharks 0.87
Chiefs -1.17
Cheetahs -1.46
Hurricanes -1.90
Force -4.95
Highlanders -5.69
Brumbies -6.66
Lions -10.82
Rebels -15.64

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive prediction being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.  Comparing with the other tipsters in the NZ Herald this morning, I was the only one to tip the Cheetahs. That’s because the Lions have been consistently awful, while the Cheetahs actually had some reasonable results last year.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 Crusaders -3.10
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 Brumbies 2.80
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 Bulls 7.80
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 Chiefs 9.00
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 Waratahs 4.40
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Stormers 13.00
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 Cheetahs -4.90
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February 7, 2012

Superbowl statistics

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American football games, like many sporting events, start with a coin toss, in this case to decide which team is playing in which direction.   At the last 14 Superbowls, the team from the National Football Conference has won the toss (via).  In a standard test of the hypothesis that the coin was fair, the p-value would be 0.0001.  So, does this mean the NFC is cheating? Well, no.  We have overwhelmingly good reasons to believe that coin tosses are very close to fair, and a mere 1 in 8000 coincidence shouldn’t change our minds.   As Tom Stoppard put it in  Rosencrantz and Guildensten Are Dead: “A spectacular vindication of the principle that each coin, spun individually, is just as likely to come up head as tails, and should cause no surprise each individual time it does.”

The generalization of this principle to studies purporting to find small, but statistically significant, benefits of homeopathy is left as an exercise to the reader.

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December 31, 2011

Student multitasking

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Another seasonal phenomenon at this time of year is the end of US college football. For those who haven’t encountered the game, American football is not entirely unlike rugby, only with less actual kicking and more ad breaks.

Some economists in Oregon have looked at the relationship between the average male:female GPA difference  at the University of Oregon and the performance of the Ducks, the University’s football team.

So what did the economists find? While the average GPA for male students was always lower than for female students, there was a definite pattern with a larger gap in years when the Ducks did well and a smaller gap when the team did poorly. (more…)

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