Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

July 6, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Sea Eagles 10.37 -4.77 15.10
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 7.99 7.73 0.30
Roosters 3.83 10.25 -6.40
Sharks -3.07 -0.76 -2.30
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Raiders -6.34 6.98 -13.30
Cowboys -12.09 -8.05 -4.00
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -14.48 -7.62 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 0 – 46 -11.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 18 – 19 -2.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 13 – 12 8.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 0 – 66 -13.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 6 – 44 8.50 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 38 – 0 4.30 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 26 – 18 -10.60 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 22 – 38 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 Sea Eagles 19.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 Rabbitohs 23.10
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 Roosters -15.30
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 Sharks 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Western Province 3.91 3.28 0.60
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.56 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -8.52 -9.50 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 26 – 22 7.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 32 – 31 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 Western Province 15.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 10 Sharks 5.50

 

June 29, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 3.96 3.28 0.70
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.23 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -8.84 -9.50 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 38 – 32 1.40 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 32 – 27 11.80 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 31 – 10 -4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 01 Bulls -3.90
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 Pumas 7.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 Western Province 1.60

 

June 22, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.84 2.32 5.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.93 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.71 4.80 1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 5.27 2.83 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 19 – 6 5.30 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 24 – 21 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 26 Stade Toulousain 4.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.78 7.35 2.40
Sale Sharks 5.77 4.96 0.80
Bristol 4.72 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 3.43 -1.08 4.50
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 36 – 43 7.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 40 – 30 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 4.22 3.28 0.90
Bulls 4.19 5.14 -0.90
Lions 2.65 3.74 -1.10
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -4.58 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -9.71 -9.50 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 39 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 16 – 30 -11.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 24 – 48 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 Lions 1.40
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 Bulls 11.80
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 Cheetahs -4.50

 

June 19, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.19 5.19 0.00
Bulls 5.14 5.14 0.00
Lions 3.74 3.74 -0.00
Western Province 3.28 3.28 0.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -5.67 -5.67 -0.00
Griquas -9.50 -9.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 Lions -6.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 Sharks -11.70
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 Bulls 4.90

 

June 15, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.47 6.21 1.30
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.95 2.83 2.10
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 38 – 21 11.00 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 25 – 16 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 La Rochelle 5.30
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 7.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.79 14.49 0.30
Blues 9.30 7.80 1.50
Hurricanes 8.02 7.13 0.90
Highlanders 5.41 2.70 2.70
Chiefs 5.31 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 2.02 1.47 0.50
Reds 0.53 1.59 -1.10
Rebels -6.39 -3.51 -2.90
Western Force -10.06 -13.05 3.00
Waratahs -10.96 -5.02 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 43 – 14 12.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 12 – 33 4.70 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 26 – 52 -20.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 31 – 21 27.00 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 7 – 40 -8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 19 Blues 9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.63 7.35 2.30
Sale Sharks 5.91 4.96 0.90
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Harlequins 2.66 -1.08 3.70
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 30 – 24 1.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 20 – 19 9.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 54 – 26 14.80 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 31 – 38 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 Bristol 7.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 Exeter Chiefs 8.20

 

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