Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

January 16, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

Another update because of a rescheduled match. And what is even weirder, another match listed as a Round 12 match. Can the season get any more messed up?

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.79 16.52 1.30
Munster 10.32 9.90 0.40
Ulster 9.06 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 1.61 1.98 -0.40
Connacht 1.40 0.70 0.70
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.59 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.90 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -8.19 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 29 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 10 – 16 -3.50 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 20 – 28 0.20 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 29 – 20 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jan 25 Connacht 10.80
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Jan 17 Glasgow Warriors 4.40
3 Munster vs. Leinster Jan 24 Leinster -4.10
4 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Jan 24 Edinburgh -12.30
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 23 Scarlets 7.20

 

January 12, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.89 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.89 4.80 2.10
La Rochelle 6.36 2.32 4.00
RC Toulonnais 3.52 3.56 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 3.40 5.61 -2.20
Bordeaux-Begles 3.26 2.83 0.40
Clermont Auvergne 2.95 3.22 -0.30
Montpellier 1.77 2.30 -0.50
Stade Francais Paris 0.14 -3.22 3.40
Castres Olympique -1.89 -0.47 -1.40
Section Paloise -2.60 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.84 -3.26 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -4.84 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -11.43 -4.72 -6.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 09 31 – 9 4.10 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Jan 09 23 – 22 -0.30 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. SU Agen Jan 09 39 – 23 14.90 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 31 – 42 7.30 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 48 – 24 -1.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 31 – 9 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Jan 30 Aviron Bayonnais 12.10
2 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 30 RC Toulonnais -1.90
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 30 Clermont Auvergne 5.20
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 30 La Rochelle 5.00
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 30 Lyon Rugby 11.50
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 Montpellier 0.40
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 Stade Francais Paris 7.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.28 7.35 -0.10
Wasps 5.44 5.66 -0.20
Sale Sharks 3.37 4.96 -1.60
Bristol 3.11 1.28 1.80
Bath -0.37 2.14 -2.50
Harlequins -1.57 -1.08 -0.50
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -5.78 -6.14 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -6.08 -10.00 3.90
London Irish -6.57 -8.05 1.50
Worcester Warriors -7.20 -5.71 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Wasps Jan 09 44 – 52 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 09 20 – 13 16.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 10 7 – 20 11.10 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 10 22 – 10 -0.60 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. London Irish Jan 11 27 – 27 10.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 30 Bristol 8.00
2 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jan 31 Gloucester 4.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jan 31 Sale Sharks -4.60
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 01 London Irish 4.00
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Feb 01 Wasps 11.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 31 Exeter Chiefs -10.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.79 16.52 1.30
Munster 10.32 9.90 0.40
Ulster 9.06 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 1.61 1.98 -0.40
Connacht 1.40 0.70 0.70
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.59 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.90 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -8.19 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 29 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 10 – 16 -3.50 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 20 – 28 0.20 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 29 – 20 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Munster Jan 31 Munster -6.20
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 Connacht -2.90
3 Scarlets vs. Leinster Jan 31 Leinster -11.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Treviso Jan 10 22 – 18 -7.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 Cardiff Blues 1.40
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 Munster -3.50
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 Dragons 0.20
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 Leinster 14.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 4.93 6.16 -1.20
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.67 1.46 2.20
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.96 0.80
Pumas -5.67 -6.66 1.00
Griquas -9.50 -8.90 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 07 22 – 15 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 24 Bulls 5.80
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 24 Western Province 4.30

 

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January 9, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

Another last minute change that I just picked up. This is a postponed game from Round 9. There are now 2 postponed games from Round 11. I can see the logic that both these teams are now free to play and are both in Italy; it is just a nightmare to keep up with all the changes. I don’t need to modify my predictions for the other Round 11 games, they are as before but I will do a forecast after the result of this game to report the result of my forecast.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.15 -3.50 -1.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.82 -15.37 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 15 – 24 17.50 FALSE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 3 – 17 7.90 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 10 – 7 5.60 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 24 – 35 23.80 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 20 – 3 14.30 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 15 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Treviso Jan 10 Treviso -7.50

 

January 7, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

As I previously foreshadowed, here are my updated predictions for Round 14 after the Lyon versus Montpellier game. Montpellier actually did better than predicted against Lyon so improved their ranking and that changed the prediction for their game against Brive. Note that my forecast doesn’t take into account the fact that Montpellier is having to play three games in a bit over a week. Likewise Lyon.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.50 6.21 1.30
Stade Toulousain 6.48 4.80 1.70
La Rochelle 5.74 2.32 3.40
Lyon Rugby 4.00 5.61 -1.60
Clermont Auvergne 3.75 3.22 0.50
RC Toulonnais 3.52 3.56 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 2.65 2.83 -0.20
Montpellier 1.86 2.30 -0.40
Stade Francais Paris 0.55 -3.22 3.80
Castres Olympique -1.97 -0.47 -1.50
Section Paloise -3.40 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.93 -3.26 -0.70
Aviron Bayonnais -4.84 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -11.36 -4.72 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier Jan 07 24 – 20 9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 09 Bordeaux-Begles 4.10
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Jan 09 Montpellier -0.30
3 Castres Olympique vs. SU Agen Jan 09 Castres Olympique 14.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 Racing-Metro 92 7.30
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 09 RC Toulonnais 13.90
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 Clermont Auvergne -1.60
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 Stade Toulousain 11.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

OK, this is getting really frustrating. So I now see that the postponed game Bulls versus Lions was played today: I can’t keep up with these crazy schedules. I haven’t posted my prediction for that game but you can see the results below. It does mean I need to update my Round 7 predictions though, so here they are.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.48 6.16 1.30
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.67 1.46 2.20
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.96 0.70
Pumas -8.23 -6.66 -1.60
Griquas -9.37 -8.90 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 17 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 07 22 – 15 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 08 Bulls -11.20
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jan 09 Cheetahs -2.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 09 Western Province 4.30

 

January 5, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that because Lyon is to play Montpellier midweek, there will be a change to those two teams ratings. The changes are likely to be small, but given the closeness of the Brive versus Montpellier match could easily affect that prediction. To deal with this unusual situation, I will post an updated forecast after the Lyon versus Montpellier game, prior to the weekend games.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.50 6.21 1.30
Stade Toulousain 6.47 4.80 1.70
La Rochelle 5.74 2.32 3.40
Lyon Rugby 4.29 5.61 -1.30
Clermont Auvergne 3.74 3.22 0.50
RC Toulonnais 3.52 3.56 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 2.63 2.83 -0.20
Montpellier 1.57 2.30 -0.70
Stade Francais Paris 0.56 -3.22 3.80
Castres Olympique -1.96 -0.47 -1.50
Section Paloise -3.40 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.90 -3.26 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -11.33 -4.72 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 83 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 02 31 – 18 3.90 TRUE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 02 22 – 24 2.30 FALSE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Jan 02 14 – 15 12.70 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 9 – 16 1.30 FALSE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jan 02 51 – 21 8.60 TRUE
6 SU Agen vs. La Rochelle Jan 02 13 – 43 -10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 09 Bordeaux-Begles 3.80
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Jan 09 Brive 0.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. SU Agen Jan 09 Castres Olympique 14.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 Racing-Metro 92 7.30
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 09 RC Toulonnais 13.90
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 Clermont Auvergne -1.60
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 Stade Toulousain 11.40

 

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