Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

April 20, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.63 4.80 2.80
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.97 3.22 3.80
Racing-Metro 92 5.47 6.21 -0.70
Lyon Rugby 4.37 5.61 -1.20
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -1.31 -3.22 1.90
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -2.95 -4.48 1.50
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 143 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 17 43 – 33 8.20 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 18 26 – 24 -3.80 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 18 38 – 23 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier Apr 24 Bordeaux-Begles 6.30
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 25 Aviron Bayonnais 0.40
3 Brive vs. La Rochelle Apr 25 La Rochelle -3.60
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 Lyon Rugby 2.90
5 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen Apr 25 RC Toulonnais 23.20
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 Stade Francais Paris 7.10
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 Stade Toulousain 7.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.42 14.49 -0.10
Blues 8.12 7.80 0.30
Hurricanes 6.00 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.92 4.38 0.50
Brumbies 3.41 1.47 1.90
Reds 3.20 1.59 1.60
Highlanders 3.03 2.70 0.30
Rebels -4.75 -3.51 -1.20
Waratahs -8.29 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.10 -13.05 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 16 35 – 29 -0.10 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Apr 16 20 – 26 -2.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 17 26 – 25 -4.70 FALSE
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 17 31 – 30 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 23 Chiefs 4.40
2 Western Force vs. Reds Apr 23 Reds -9.80
3 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 24 Waratahs 2.00
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 Crusaders 11.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.42 7.35 -0.90
Bristol 4.65 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 4.44 -1.08 5.50
Sale Sharks 3.52 4.96 -1.40
Northampton Saints 1.03 -2.48 3.50
Bath -1.59 2.14 -3.70
Wasps -1.62 5.66 -7.30
Gloucester -2.66 -1.02 -1.60
Leicester Tigers -3.47 -6.14 2.70
London Irish -5.99 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -7.92 -10.00 2.10
Worcester Warriors -9.91 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Apr 17 44 – 26 10.60 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Apr 17 25 – 22 11.70 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 18 43 – 13 10.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 18 50 – 26 18.10 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Apr 18 17 – 34 -6.90 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 19 21 – 20 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 24 Bristol 2.70
2 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 24 Harlequins -5.90
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 25 Gloucester 9.80
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 25 Leicester Tigers 0.00
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 25 Sale Sharks -8.90
6 Wasps vs. Bath Apr 26 Wasps 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.60 14.53 1.10
Panthers 12.43 8.88 3.60
Roosters 11.68 10.25 1.40
Rabbitohs 9.98 7.73 2.20
Eels 5.59 1.68 3.90
Raiders 3.15 6.98 -3.80
Sharks 0.90 -0.76 1.70
Warriors -0.72 -1.84 1.10
Dragons -1.23 -4.95 3.70
Knights -4.91 -2.61 -2.30
Wests Tigers -5.05 -3.07 -2.00
Titans -6.28 -7.22 0.90
Sea Eagles -6.57 -4.77 -1.80
Broncos -9.57 -11.16 1.60
Cowboys -12.16 -8.05 -4.10
Bulldogs -14.82 -7.62 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Apr 15 12 – 20 -21.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 16 26 – 22 -4.30 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 16 20 – 4 5.00 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 17 36 – 0 -3.90 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 18 – 14 21.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 17 10 – 35 5.70 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 18 14 – 20 4.30 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 18 30 – 18 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Knights Apr 22 Panthers 20.30
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 Rabbitohs -13.30
3 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 23 Eels 18.20
4 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 Sharks 18.70
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 24 Raiders -12.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Wests Tigers 4.50
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 15.90
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.30

 

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April 13, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.76 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.38 7.80 0.60
Hurricanes 6.00 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.58 4.38 0.20
Reds 3.20 1.59 1.60
Brumbies 3.19 1.47 1.70
Highlanders 2.78 2.70 0.10
Rebels -4.53 -3.51 -1.00
Waratahs -8.33 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.05 -13.05 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Western Force Apr 09 15 – 16 14.10 FALSE
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Apr 10 23 – 26 4.30 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 10 24 – 22 6.00 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 27 – 30 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 16 Blues -0.10
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Apr 16 Brumbies -2.20
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 17 Crusaders -4.70
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 17 Western Force 1.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.62 14.53 0.10
Panthers 13.60 8.88 4.70
Roosters 12.66 10.25 2.40
Rabbitohs 11.45 7.73 3.70
Raiders 5.74 6.98 -1.20
Eels 3.00 1.68 1.30
Sharks 1.64 -0.76 2.40
Dragons -0.31 -4.95 4.60
Warriors -1.64 -1.84 0.20
Titans -2.96 -7.22 4.30
Knights -5.66 -2.61 -3.10
Wests Tigers -6.53 -3.07 -3.50
Sea Eagles -9.89 -4.77 -5.10
Broncos -10.75 -11.16 0.40
Cowboys -12.86 -8.05 -4.80
Bulldogs -14.12 -7.62 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 08 35 – 6 24.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 12 – 13 10.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 09 30 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Knights Apr 10 42 – 16 1.50 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Apr 10 18 – 52 -24.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 10 26 – 18 15.30 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 11 30 – 34 12.10 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 11 12 – 26 10.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -21.30
2 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 16 Sharks -4.30
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 16 Storm 5.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 17 Titans -3.90
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 Rabbitohs 21.00
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 17 Raiders 5.70
7 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 18 Dragons 4.30
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 18 Cowboys 4.30

 

April 6, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.38 7.80 0.60
Hurricanes 5.98 7.13 -1.10
Chiefs 4.28 4.38 -0.10
Reds 3.44 1.59 1.80
Highlanders 3.07 2.70 0.40
Brumbies 2.95 1.47 1.50
Rebels -4.00 -3.51 -0.50
Waratahs -8.33 -5.02 -3.30
Western Force -12.57 -13.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 02 12 – 33 19.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 02 22 – 24 -6.30 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 03 27 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 19 – 44 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Western Force Apr 09 Rebels 14.10
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Apr 10 Highlanders 4.30
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Reds 6.00
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Crusaders -3.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.73 14.53 -0.80
Roosters 13.32 10.25 3.10
Panthers 12.62 8.88 3.70
Rabbitohs 11.02 7.73 3.30
Raiders 6.72 6.98 -0.30
Eels 5.09 1.68 3.40
Sharks 0.98 -0.76 1.70
Warriors -0.65 -1.84 1.20
Dragons -2.40 -4.95 2.60
Knights -3.57 -2.61 -1.00
Titans -5.05 -7.22 2.20
Wests Tigers -5.12 -3.07 -2.10
Broncos -10.31 -11.16 0.80
Sea Eagles -10.88 -4.77 -6.10
Bulldogs -13.22 -7.62 -5.60
Cowboys -14.26 -8.05 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 01 6 – 46 -16.50 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 02 0 – 38 -17.80 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 02 40 – 6 25.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 03 48 – 10 14.20 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 03 4 – 20 -7.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 13 – 22 4.10 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 04 32 – 12 16.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 05 22 – 36 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 08 Rabbitohs 24.30
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 Warriors 10.20
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 09 Panthers 8.90
4 Titans vs. Knights Apr 10 Titans 1.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Apr 10 Storm -24.00
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 10 Roosters 15.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 11 Wests Tigers 12.10
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 11 Eels 10.50

 

March 30, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.10 4.80 3.30
Clermont Auvergne 7.03 3.22 3.80
La Rochelle 6.35 2.32 4.00
Racing-Metro 92 5.49 6.21 -0.70
Lyon Rugby 4.95 5.61 -0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 3.43 2.83 0.60
RC Toulonnais 2.47 3.56 -1.10
Montpellier 2.17 2.30 -0.10
Stade Francais Paris -1.03 -3.22 2.20
Castres Olympique -1.28 -0.47 -0.80
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.47 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.13 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -15.49 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 28 23 – 13 -7.30 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 28 11 – 26 3.80 FALSE
3 Brive vs. SU Agen Mar 28 57 – 3 16.90 TRUE
4 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Mar 28 38 – 33 8.10 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 28 54 – 16 6.10 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 28 27 – 34 -1.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 28 16 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 18 Stade Toulousain -3.90
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 18 Clermont Auvergne 14.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 18 La Rochelle 6.90
4 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 18 Montpellier 5.20
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 18 Racing-Metro 92 12.00
6 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 17 Section Paloise 8.20
7 SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 18 Bordeaux-Begles -13.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.93 14.49 1.40
Blues 8.23 7.80 0.40
Hurricanes 6.13 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 4.28 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.20 1.47 1.70
Reds 2.67 1.59 1.10
Highlanders 1.91 2.70 -0.80
Rebels -3.22 -3.51 0.30
Waratahs -8.59 -5.02 -3.60
Western Force -12.57 -13.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 26 19 – 30 2.20 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 26 42 – 14 20.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 27 15 – 12 1.40 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 27 14 – 46 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 02 Crusaders 19.50
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 02 Brumbies -6.30
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 03 Blues 7.60
4 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 Reds -0.40

 

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