September 10, 2019

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.44 6.03 6.40
Roosters 11.06 8.72 2.30
Raiders 6.18 1.81 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.43 3.89 -0.50
Sharks 2.58 3.90 -1.30
Eels 0.64 -6.17 6.80
Sea Eagles 0.54 -5.61 6.10
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Broncos -1.86 2.63 -4.50
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 05 16 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 32 – 16 1.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 06 24 – 16 21.20 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 07 20 – 24 19.10 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sep 07 30 – 14 0.10 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Sep 07 16 – 24 -3.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 08 8 – 25 3.00 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 08 54 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 Roosters 10.60
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 14 Storm 9.30
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 14 Sea Eagles 1.00
4 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 15 Eels 5.50

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 18.30 9.00 9.30
Canterbury 15.66 12.92 2.70
Auckland 10.54 11.57 -1.00
Wellington 6.86 10.92 -4.10
Waikato 5.98 8.24 -2.30
Bay of Plenty 3.59 -4.82 8.40
North Harbour 2.68 5.30 -2.60
Taranaki -2.32 -5.22 2.90
Counties Manukau -2.53 -1.99 -0.50
Hawke’s Bay -3.11 -5.69 2.60
Otago -4.67 -1.49 -3.20
Northland -12.10 -6.23 -5.90
Manawatu -15.34 -11.67 -3.70
Southland -24.80 -22.08 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 05 31 – 25 -0.40 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Sep 06 41 – 23 27.40 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 06 0 – 36 -12.60 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 07 38 – 36 0.40 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 07 15 – 16 1.10 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 08 22 – 32 0.80 FALSE
7 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 08 35 – 27 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 12 Waikato 13.10
2 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 Canterbury -23.80
3 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 14 Bay of Plenty -1.90
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 Manawatu -5.50
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Sep 14 Auckland -9.10
6 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 15 Wellington 15.50
7 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 15 Tasman 19.60

 

September 9, 2019

Briefly

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  • An actual evaluation: ‘Kentucky lawmakers thought requiring that judges consult an algorithm when deciding whether to hold a defendant in jail before trial would make the state’s justice system cheaper and fairer by setting more people free. That’s not how it turned out.’ Ars Technica
  • From the CEO of Palantir, in the Washington Post “Companies and innovators in Silicon Valley have immense, almost monopolistic power. Many have lucrative contracts with the government. But under scrutiny from employees and activists, they are being pressured to avoid controversy by picking and choosing which contracts to accept and which to abandon. “ He thinks that’s a bad thing.
  • The winners of MonoCarto 2019 (formerly known as the Monochrome Mapping Competition)
  • We’re about to have another bit of democracy.  To prepare, places.figure.nz gives you information about your local government areas. The Spinoff’s “Policy Local” is asking all local government candidates a set of questions and putting the answers in an app
  • Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean.  Albert Cairo in the NYT.
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The Art of Statistics

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Kim Hill on Radio NZ had a long interview with David Spiegelhalter, who is Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, at Cambridge.   He has a new book, “The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data”

September 3, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.36 6.03 7.30
Roosters 11.92 8.72 3.20
Raiders 7.79 1.81 6.00
Rabbitohs 2.57 3.89 -1.30
Sea Eagles 1.59 -5.61 7.20
Wests Tigers 1.22 -5.57 6.80
Sharks 1.18 3.90 -2.70
Eels -0.41 -6.17 5.80
Broncos -0.74 2.63 -3.40
Panthers -3.00 0.93 -3.90
Knights -3.06 -8.51 5.40
Bulldogs -3.63 -0.61 -3.00
Cowboys -4.88 0.15 -5.00
Dragons -6.47 0.06 -6.50
Warriors -6.78 -0.27 -6.50
Titans -12.65 -3.36 -9.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 15 – 8 0.90 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 10 – 31 -2.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 30 17 – 16 2.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Aug 31 38 – 4 9.10 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 6 – 36 -5.30 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 31 22 – 6 18.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 01 14 – 15 -4.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 14 – 42 -0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -6.40
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Eels 1.00
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 06 Storm 21.20
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 07 Raiders 19.10
5 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sep 07 Bulldogs 0.10
6 Titans vs. Dragons Sep 07 Dragons -3.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 08 Wests Tigers 3.00
8 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 08 Panthers 3.10

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.19 9.00 7.20
Canterbury 14.68 12.92 1.80
Auckland 11.51 11.57 -0.10
Wellington 6.67 10.92 -4.20
Waikato 6.12 8.24 -2.10
Bay of Plenty 3.78 -4.82 8.60
North Harbour 2.54 5.30 -2.80
Counties Manukau -0.42 -1.99 1.60
Taranaki -1.62 -5.22 3.60
Hawke’s Bay -2.27 -5.69 3.40
Otago -5.36 -1.49 -3.90
Northland -11.52 -6.23 -5.30
Manawatu -15.92 -11.67 -4.30
Southland -25.64 -22.08 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 29 29 – 22 12.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Manawatu Aug 30 37 – 20 14.00 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Aug 31 80 – 0 36.50 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 31 28 – 43 -3.10 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 20 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 01 19 – 27 5.10 FALSE
7 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 01 18 – 28 -14.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 05 Northland -0.40
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Sep 06 Hawke’s Bay 27.40
3 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 06 Tasman -12.60
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 07 North Harbour 0.40
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 07 Bay of Plenty 1.10
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 08 Auckland 0.80
7 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 08 Otago 0.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.90 7.88 -1.00
Sharks 4.93 5.56 -0.60
Cheetahs 4.47 2.68 1.80
Lions 2.92 3.35 -0.40
Blue Bulls -1.13 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.55 -10.73 2.20
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sep 01 51 – 30 15.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 01 34 – 19 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 08 Cheetahs 6.10

 

August 27, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.08 8.72 3.40
Storm 11.64 6.03 5.60
Raiders 8.01 1.81 6.20
Sea Eagles 3.32 -5.61 8.90
Rabbitohs 1.25 3.89 -2.60
Sharks 0.96 3.90 -2.90
Eels -0.54 -6.17 5.60
Broncos -0.61 2.63 -3.20
Wests Tigers -0.68 -5.57 4.90
Panthers -3.16 0.93 -4.10
Bulldogs -3.20 -0.61 -2.60
Dragons -4.58 0.06 -4.60
Knights -4.80 -8.51 3.70
Cowboys -5.31 0.15 -5.50
Warriors -5.47 -0.27 -5.20
Titans -10.91 -3.36 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 6 – 12 7.60 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Aug 23 24 – 10 -1.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 23 20 – 22 1.70 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 24 42 – 16 8.50 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 24 46 – 4 1.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 24 12 – 34 -12.30 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Titans Aug 25 24 – 8 27.10 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 14 – 18 9.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 Cowboys 0.90
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Rabbitohs -2.20
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 30 Broncos 2.90
4 Knights vs. Titans Aug 31 Knights 9.10
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 Storm -5.30
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 31 Roosters 18.20
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 01 Raiders -4.00
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 Wests Tigers -0.90

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.61 9.00 7.60
Auckland 11.67 11.57 0.10
Canterbury 10.77 12.92 -2.10
Wellington 7.12 10.92 -3.80
Waikato 5.97 8.24 -2.30
North Harbour 3.72 5.30 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 2.60 -4.82 7.40
Counties Manukau -0.87 -1.99 1.10
Taranaki -2.04 -5.22 3.20
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 -5.69 2.30
Otago -5.63 -1.49 -4.10
Northland -10.45 -6.23 -4.20
Manawatu -15.65 -11.67 -4.00
Southland -21.72 -22.08 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 22 29 – 21 5.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Aug 23 23 – 22 0.20 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 24 19 – 13 14.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 24 64 – 3 30.80 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 24 26 – 31 -2.40 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 25 52 – 19 7.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 25 12 – 33 -21.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 29 Wellington 12.00
2 Otago vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Otago 14.00
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Aug 31 Canterbury 36.50
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 31 Hawke’s Bay -3.10
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Auckland -1.70
6 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 01 North Harbour 5.10
7 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 01 Tasman -14.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.90 7.88 -1.00
Sharks 5.38 5.56 -0.20
Cheetahs 4.02 2.68 1.30
Lions 2.44 3.35 -0.90
Blue Bulls -1.13 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.07 -10.73 2.70
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 26 – 27 -7.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 38 – 33 1.00 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 40 – 48 -0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sep 01 Lions 15.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 01 Cheetahs 3.10

 

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