March 23, 2019

The breakthough narrative

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Clinical science stories are the opposite of most current events coverage: the good news is dramatic and has an army of publicists; the bad is slow and boring.

In September 2016 there was a flurry of news articles about a new candidate treatment for Alzheimer’s

In the Herald (from the Telegraph)

(from the Washington Post)

  • A glimmer of hope for an Alzheimer’s drug. An initial trial of an antibody therapy that targets Alzheimer’s disease has shown promising results and could signal a long-awaited breakthrough in treating the devastating brain disorder that affects millions.

Stuff (from the Telegraph)

TVNZ

Radio NZ

Now, in 2019, two large clinical trials were just stopped because the treatment didn’t work.  This sort of thing happens a lot; drug development is hard, especially when we don’t actually understand the disease very well.

The coverage of Alzheimer’s treatment candidates has two big problems, though. First, promising initial results are almost always oversold. Second, the failures usually aren’t covered, except perhaps in the business pages.

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March 19, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.13 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 9.41 9.43 -0.00
Lions 5.21 8.28 -3.10
Highlanders 3.73 4.01 -0.30
Chiefs 2.44 8.56 -6.10
Bulls 1.01 -3.79 4.80
Waratahs 1.01 2.00 -1.00
Sharks 0.37 0.45 -0.10
Brumbies 0.25 0.00 0.20
Stormers 0.21 -0.39 0.60
Jaguares -1.45 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -3.37 -3.42 0.10
Rebels -4.47 -7.26 2.80
Reds -6.80 -8.19 1.40
Sunwolves -13.67 -16.08 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 23 – 23 -4.00 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 19 – 13 2.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 15 35 – 8 2.70 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Reds Mar 16 31 – 34 -2.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Rebels Mar 16 36 – 33 15.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 22 Highlanders -3.60
2 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Mar 23 Hurricanes 13.20
3 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Mar 23 Crusaders -12.10
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Mar 23 Lions -14.90
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 23 Bulls 2.60
6 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 Sharks 8.80
7 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 24 Brumbies -3.50

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.47 8.72 -1.20
Storm 6.28 6.03 0.20
Rabbitohs 5.13 3.89 1.20
Raiders 3.13 1.81 1.30
Sharks 2.83 3.90 -1.10
Broncos 2.37 2.63 -0.30
Warriors 1.77 -0.27 2.00
Cowboys 0.77 0.15 0.60
Panthers -0.34 0.93 -1.30
Dragons -0.57 0.06 -0.60
Bulldogs -2.65 -0.61 -2.00
Titans -4.68 -3.36 -1.30
Wests Tigers -4.80 -5.57 0.80
Eels -4.90 -6.17 1.30
Sea Eagles -6.38 -5.61 -0.80
Knights -7.43 -8.51 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 14 22 – 12 6.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Mar 15 14 – 8 -9.40 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 16 – 26 7.80 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 40 – 6 4.80 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 16 20 – 6 3.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 16 24 – 12 3.10 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 17 12 – 20 10.10 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 17 0 – 21 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 21 Rabbitohs -2.70
2 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 22 Storm -0.20
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 22 Broncos 4.60
4 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 23 Sharks 10.50
5 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 23 Panthers -4.10
6 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 23 Roosters -10.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 24 Bulldogs 5.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 24 Warriors -2.10

 

March 12, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.13 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 9.65 9.43 0.20
Lions 5.94 8.28 -2.30
Highlanders 3.73 4.01 -0.30
Chiefs 2.20 8.56 -6.40
Waratahs 1.24 2.00 -0.80
Bulls 1.01 -3.79 4.80
Sharks 0.37 0.45 -0.10
Brumbies 0.02 0.00 0.00
Jaguares 0.01 -0.26 0.30
Stormers -1.25 -0.39 -0.90
Blues -3.37 -3.42 0.10
Rebels -5.20 -7.26 2.10
Reds -6.81 -8.19 1.40
Sunwolves -13.67 -16.08 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 08 25 – 22 10.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 08 29 – 26 -2.40 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 57 – 28 17.00 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Sunwolves Mar 09 28 – 20 15.20 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 09 28 – 17 11.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Mar 09 47 – 39 10.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 09 37 – 14 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Hurricanes -4.00
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 2.30
3 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 15 Stormers 2.70
4 Sunwolves vs. Reds Mar 16 Reds -2.90
5 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 16 Crusaders -9.90
6 Lions vs. Rebels Mar 16 Lions 15.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.74 11.19 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 9.88 11.13 -1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.00 1.23 2.80
Northampton Saints 3.51 3.42 0.10
Bath Rugby 2.99 3.11 -0.10
Wasps 2.90 8.30 -5.40
Harlequins 2.36 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 1.89 -0.81 2.70
Leicester Tigers 1.51 6.26 -4.70
Bristol -2.53 -5.60 3.10
Worcester Warriors -2.54 -5.18 2.60
Newcastle Falcons -3.13 -3.51 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 18 – 9 -3.40 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 7 – 29 6.10 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 24 – 26 12.90 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 32 – 5 4.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 19 – 20 12.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 30 – 33 -7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 23 Bristol 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby Mar 23 Exeter Chiefs 12.40
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps Mar 23 Gloucester Rugby 6.60
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 3.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 23 Newcastle Falcons 0.50
6 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 13.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.72 8.72 0.00
Storm 6.03 6.03 -0.00
Sharks 3.90 3.90 -0.00
Rabbitohs 3.89 3.89 0.00
Broncos 2.63 2.63 0.00
Raiders 1.81 1.81 0.00
Panthers 0.93 0.93 0.00
Cowboys 0.15 0.15 -0.00
Dragons 0.06 0.06 0.00
Warriors -0.27 -0.27 0.00
Bulldogs -0.61 -0.61 0.00
Titans -3.36 -3.36 0.00
Wests Tigers -5.57 -5.57 -0.00
Sea Eagles -5.61 -5.61 -0.00
Eels -6.17 -6.17 0.00
Knights -8.51 -8.51 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 14 Storm 6.40
2 Knights vs. Sharks Mar 15 Sharks -9.40
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Roosters 7.80
4 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 Warriors 4.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 16 Wests Tigers 3.00
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Mar 16 Cowboys 3.10
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 17 Panthers 10.10
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 17 Raiders -2.20

 

March 5, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.41 17.67 -1.30
Hurricanes 10.09 9.43 0.70
Lions 6.07 8.28 -2.20
Highlanders 3.29 4.01 -0.70
Chiefs 2.92 8.56 -5.60
Sharks 1.66 0.45 1.20
Waratahs 1.27 2.00 -0.70
Brumbies 0.34 0.00 0.30
Jaguares -0.13 -0.26 0.10
Bulls -0.28 -3.79 3.50
Stormers -1.25 -0.39 -0.90
Blues -2.94 -3.42 0.50
Rebels -5.52 -7.26 1.70
Reds -6.85 -8.19 1.30
Sunwolves -14.10 -16.08 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 01 43 – 13 11.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 01 24 – 19 -6.20 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Sunwolves Mar 02 15 – 30 25.90 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 02 12 – 22 -20.50 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 02 12 – 30 13.60 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 11 – 16 8.00 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Blues Mar 02 23 – 19 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Hurricanes 10.30
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 08 Brumbies -2.40
3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Crusaders 17.00
4 Blues vs. Sunwolves Mar 09 Blues 15.20
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 09 Waratahs 11.60
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Mar 09 Lions 10.20
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 09 Bulls 1.60

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.33 11.19 0.10
Exeter Chiefs 10.31 11.13 -0.80
Northampton Saints 4.19 3.42 0.80
Wasps 3.55 8.30 -4.70
Harlequins 3.46 2.05 1.40
Gloucester Rugby 2.90 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.46 6.26 -3.80
Bath Rugby 2.39 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.95 -0.81 1.80
Worcester Warriors -2.97 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.21 -5.60 2.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.77 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Harlequins Mar 02 29 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 02 28 – 24 -1.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Mar 02 19 – 14 4.30 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 02 17 – 6 3.90 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 02 14 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 02 36 – 17 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 Saracens -3.40
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 Harlequins 6.10
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 Northampton Saints 12.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 Sale Sharks 4.00
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 Wasps 12.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 Exeter Chiefs -7.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.09 9.80 2.30
Munster 10.08 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 8.68 8.55 0.10
Scarlets 3.80 6.39 -2.60
Connacht 3.10 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.46 2.07 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.52 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh -0.37 -0.64 0.30
Ospreys -0.50 -0.86 0.40
Treviso -0.57 -5.19 4.60
Cheetahs -1.80 -0.83 -1.00
Dragons -10.19 -8.59 -1.60
Southern Kings -10.70 -7.91 -2.80
Zebre -15.06 -10.57 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 19 – 7 19.60 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 03 46 – 5 5.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Mar 03 18 – 10 3.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Mar 03 10 – 6 -2.90 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 03 10 – 42 -18.10 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Southern Kings Mar 03 26 – 19 16.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 04 15 – 28 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 1.20
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Mar 23 Connacht 8.20
3 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -8.00
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 Glasgow Warriors 15.00
5 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 23 Munster 29.60
6 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 23 Ospreys 14.20
7 Ulster vs. Southern Kings Mar 23 Ulster 16.70

 

February 26, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.04 17.67 -0.60
Hurricanes 8.98 9.43 -0.40
Lions 7.97 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 5.38 8.56 -3.20
Highlanders 3.96 4.01 -0.00
Sharks 2.44 0.45 2.00
Brumbies 1.45 0.00 1.40
Waratahs 1.27 2.00 -0.70
Jaguares 0.07 -0.26 0.30
Stormers -2.03 -0.39 -1.60
Bulls -2.18 -3.79 1.60
Blues -3.13 -3.42 0.30
Rebels -6.19 -7.26 1.10
Reds -7.48 -8.19 0.70
Sunwolves -16.55 -16.08 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 22 36 – 31 16.90 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Feb 23 30 – 31 -15.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 38 – 22 11.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Feb 23 54 – 17 -5.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Blues Feb 23 26 – 7 8.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Feb 23 19 – 17 -7.70 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls Feb 23 27 – 12 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Hurricanes 11.50
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 01 Highlanders -6.20
3 Chiefs vs. Sunwolves Mar 02 Chiefs 25.90
4 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 02 Crusaders -20.50
5 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 02 Lions 13.60
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 Sharks 8.00
7 Jaguares vs. Blues Mar 02 Jaguares 7.20

 

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