October 15, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.81 12.20 1.60
Munster 9.39 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Scarlets 5.13 3.91 1.20
Connacht 4.22 2.68 1.50
Ulster 2.13 1.89 0.20
Edinburgh 1.46 1.24 0.20
Ospreys 0.59 2.80 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.05 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.14 -3.38 3.20
Treviso -1.52 -1.33 -0.20
Dragons -9.51 -9.31 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.21 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -18.79 -16.93 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 40 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 14 – 38 -5.90 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 40 – 14 17.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 54 – 10 29.20 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 17 – 42 -8.60 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 17 – 13 14.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 24 – 20 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 Ulster 8.60
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 Glasgow Warriors -10.40
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 Treviso 19.20
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 Connacht 10.90
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 Leinster -26.10
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 Edinburgh 2.80

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 20.45 9.00 11.50
Canterbury 12.64 12.92 -0.30
Auckland 9.87 11.57 -1.70
Wellington 9.65 10.92 -1.30
Bay of Plenty 6.75 -4.82 11.60
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.30 -5.69 4.40
Otago -5.98 -1.49 -4.50
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -11.83 -11.67 -0.20
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 10 12 – 22 -27.20 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 11 11 – 35 -9.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 12 28 – 47 -17.50 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 33 – 17 -0.40 FALSE
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 12 39 – 21 9.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Otago Oct 13 40 – 10 -7.20 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 13 31 – 25 13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 Bay of Plenty 22.60
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 Tasman 14.60
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 Hawke’s Bay 8.70
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 Wellington 1.00

 

October 14, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 9.97 12.72 -2.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.15 -7.67 2.50
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 91.9%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE
35 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 19 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
36 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 35 – 13 45.00 TRUE
37 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 28 – 21 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 England 12.90
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 New Zealand 15.10
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 Wales 5.10
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 South Africa -18.90

 

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October 13, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 6

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Team Ratings 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the latest team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the competition.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 12.04 12.72 -0.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 7.43 5.44 2.00
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
USA -17.64 -16.38 -1.30
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 94.1%.
Here are the predictions for all games played.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE

 

Predictions 6

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.40
2 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 Tonga -0.80
3 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.00
4 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -7.40

 

October 8, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.03 12.20 0.80
Munster 10.34 10.73 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.85 9.66 -1.80
Scarlets 4.53 3.91 0.60
Connacht 3.53 2.68 0.80
Edinburgh 2.24 1.24 1.00
Ulster 1.49 1.89 -0.40
Ospreys 1.10 2.80 -1.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.54 -1.00
Cheetahs -1.09 -3.38 2.30
Treviso -2.02 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.82 -9.31 0.50
Southern Kings -13.57 -14.70 1.10
Zebre -18.20 -16.93 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 05 21 – 25 11.00 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Oct 05 53 – 5 16.40 TRUE
3 Southern Kings vs. Munster Oct 06 20 – 31 -18.80 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Dragons Oct 06 28 – 52 -1.30 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Oct 06 11 – 19 4.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Ulster Oct 06 63 – 26 1.70 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Treviso Oct 06 41 – 5 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 Munster -4.90
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 Connacht -5.90
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 Leinster 17.30
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 Scarlets 29.20
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 Ulster -8.60
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 Glasgow Warriors 14.80
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 Ospreys 9.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 20.31 9.00 11.30
Canterbury 13.35 12.92 0.40
Wellington 8.84 10.92 -2.10
Auckland 8.60 11.57 -3.00
Bay of Plenty 8.30 -4.82 13.10
Waikato 3.81 8.24 -4.40
North Harbour 3.55 5.30 -1.80
Hawke’s Bay -1.16 -5.69 4.50
Otago -2.63 -1.49 -1.10
Taranaki -5.26 -5.22 -0.00
Counties Manukau -8.90 -1.99 -6.90
Manawatu -13.30 -11.67 -1.60
Northland -13.84 -6.23 -7.60
Southland -22.90 -22.08 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 10 – 22 -1.90 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Wellington Oct 04 42 – 34 -3.30 FALSE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 05 46 – 10 23.30 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Southland Oct 05 64 – 7 30.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 05 25 – 35 -12.40 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Northland Oct 06 52 – 6 36.40 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 06 38 – 19 11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 10 Bay of Plenty -27.20
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 11 Auckland -9.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 12 Tasman -17.50
4 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 Counties Manukau -0.40
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 12 Wellington 9.00
6 Northland vs. Otago Oct 13 Otago -7.20
7 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 13 Canterbury 13.80

 

Rugby World Cup Predictions 5

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Team Ratings 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 19.76 18.51 1.30
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 10.50 12.12 -1.60
Australia 8.33 8.70 -0.40
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 2.33 4.15 -1.80
Fiji -6.16 -5.27 -0.90
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -13.95 -11.89 -2.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
Georgia -18.82 -17.43 -1.40
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -34.42 -36.78 2.40
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions 5

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 53.90
2 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 19.00
3 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 40.00
4 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 18.80
5 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 27.20
6 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 36.80
7 England vs. France Oct 12 England 15.60
8 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 24.40
9 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.80
10 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 0.20
11 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.60
12 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -5.50

 

October 4, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.02 12.20 -0.20
Munster 11.04 10.73 0.30
Glasgow Warriors 8.45 9.66 -1.20
Scarlets 3.93 3.91 0.00
Connacht 2.66 2.68 -0.00
Ulster 2.58 1.89 0.70
Ospreys 2.11 2.80 -0.70
Edinburgh 1.70 1.24 0.50
Cardiff Blues 0.11 0.54 -0.40
Treviso -1.15 -1.33 0.20
Cheetahs -2.18 -3.38 1.20
Dragons -9.62 -9.31 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.27 -14.70 0.40
Zebre -17.39 -16.93 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Glasgow Warriors Sep 28 48 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Sep 28 38 – 14 5.60 TRUE
3 Southern Kings vs. Cardiff Blues Sep 29 27 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Dragons Sep 29 39 – 9 26.50 TRUE
5 Treviso vs. Leinster Sep 29 27 – 32 -7.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Sep 29 18 – 10 7.70 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Sep 29 50 – 15 24.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 05 Glasgow Warriors 11.00
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Oct 05 Leinster 16.40
3 Southern Kings vs. Munster Oct 06 Munster -18.80
4 Zebre vs. Dragons Oct 06 Dragons -1.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Oct 06 Cardiff Blues 4.90
6 Cheetahs vs. Ulster Oct 06 Cheetahs 1.70
7 Connacht vs. Treviso Oct 06 Connacht 10.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.20 12.20 -0.00
Munster 10.73 10.73 0.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.66 9.66 0.00
Scarlets 3.91 3.91 0.00
Ospreys 2.80 2.80 -0.00
Connacht 2.68 2.68 -0.00
Ulster 1.89 1.89 -0.00
Edinburgh 1.24 1.24 -0.00
Cardiff Blues 0.54 0.54 0.00
Treviso -1.33 -1.33 0.00
Cheetahs -3.38 -3.38 -0.00
Dragons -9.31 -9.31 0.00
Southern Kings -14.70 -14.70 -0.00
Zebre -16.93 -16.93 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Glasgow Warriors Sep 28 Glasgow Warriors -6.50
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Sep 28 Ulster 5.60
3 Southern Kings vs. Cardiff Blues Sep 29 Cardiff Blues -8.70
4 Munster vs. Dragons Sep 29 Munster 26.50
5 Treviso vs. Leinster Sep 29 Leinster -7.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Sep 29 Scarlets 7.70
7 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Sep 29 Edinburgh 24.70

 

October 3, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 4

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Team Ratings 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.80 27.60 0.20
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.02 8.70 0.30
France 7.05 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -13.40 -11.89 -1.50
Georgia -16.37 -17.43 1.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -33.65 -35.67 2.00
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE

 

Predictions 4

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -7.80
2 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
3 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
4 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 42.70
5 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
6 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 12.90
7 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.40
8 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.10
9 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.10
10 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.20
11 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 41.10
12 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.30
13 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 25.40
14 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.50
15 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
16 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.00
17 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.40
18 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
19 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 46.30
20 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.00

 

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