June 6, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.24 12.99 -0.80
Rabbitohs 9.09 9.35 -0.30
Eels 4.45 6.78 -2.30
Storm 4.31 11.21 -6.90
Sharks 2.60 4.50 -1.90
Broncos 1.69 -5.92 7.60
Raiders 0.36 1.98 -1.60
Roosters 0.29 7.64 -7.40
Cowboys -0.12 6.23 -6.30
Dragons -2.82 -2.73 -0.10
Sea Eagles -4.59 -5.26 0.70
Warriors -4.81 -11.12 6.30
Dolphins -4.90 -10.00 5.10
Wests Tigers -6.42 -13.52 7.10
Titans -6.79 -6.32 -0.50
Bulldogs -8.08 -8.29 0.20
Knights -8.48 -9.53 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 02 19 – 20 -4.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Jun 03 30 – 8 3.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 03 28 – 46 -11.90 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 03 12 – 20 5.70 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 04 25 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Jun 04 45 – 20 -4.80 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 04 26 – 18 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Titans 2.60
2 Raiders vs. Warriors Jun 09 Raiders 11.20
3 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Jun 09 Sea Eagles 3.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 Rabbitohs -8.90
5 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 10 Broncos 13.20
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 10 Panthers -9.00
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 11 Storm 4.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 12 Eels -9.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.36 6.34 1.00
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.23 5.27 -0.00
Racing 92 5.02 4.86 0.20
Toulon 3.84 4.09 -0.30
Lyon 3.44 3.10 0.30
Stade Francais 2.76 -1.05 3.80
Montpellier 2.67 4.18 -1.50
Clermont 2.03 4.05 -2.00
Castres Olympique 0.04 2.87 -2.80
Section Paloise -0.21 -2.12 1.90
Aviron Bayonnais -1.41 -4.26 2.80
USA Perpignan -3.60 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.85 -4.20 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Jun 03 20 – 33 5.40 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 05 25 – 32 5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Jun 10 Stade Toulousain 2.30
2 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 11 La Rochelle 1.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.01 17.95 -0.90
Chiefs 13.48 8.81 4.70
Blues 12.81 12.34 0.50
Hurricanes 10.19 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 6.35 6.64 -0.30
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.51 1.89 -2.40
Waratahs -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.77 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 16 – 9 15.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 33 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 41 – 17 -6.90 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 27 – 26 -3.80 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 24 – 33 16.50 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 19 – 43 -13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jun 09 Blues 20.00
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 10 Chiefs 19.50
3 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Jun 10 Crusaders 31.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 Brumbies 1.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.40 4.67 -0.30
Sharks 4.06 -1.30 5.40
Pumas 2.80 2.84 -0.00
Bulls 1.29 3.43 -2.10
Griquas -1.46 1.39 -2.90
Western Province -1.96 -3.24 1.30
Lions -2.64 -7.79 5.20
Griffons -16.50 -10.00 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Jun 03 38 – 29 3.70 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Jun 03 64 – 33 20.30 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Jun 04 14 – 29 5.10 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 04 29 – 21 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jun 09 Pumas -0.30
2 Lions vs. Griffons Jun 10 Lions 17.90
3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 11 Bulls 0.90
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 11 Sharks -2.00

 

May 31, 2023

Recycling

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From Newshub: New study into therapeutic cannabis finds 96pct of participants report benefits in medical conditions.

This is deeply unsurprising, as I pointed out when similar results came out in 2017.  People who keep on using cannabis therapeutically are likely to think it works, because otherwise they wouldn’t.

 

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May 30, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.03 12.99 0.00
Rabbitohs 8.62 9.35 -0.70
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 4.45 6.78 -2.30
Sharks 3.49 4.50 -1.00
Roosters 1.09 7.64 -6.60
Broncos 0.79 -5.92 6.70
Raiders 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cowboys -1.78 6.23 -8.00
Dragons -3.60 -2.73 -0.90
Dolphins -3.78 -10.00 6.20
Sea Eagles -4.59 -5.26 0.70
Warriors -5.93 -11.12 5.20
Titans -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Wests Tigers -6.81 -13.52 6.70
Knights -8.48 -9.53 1.00
Bulldogs -8.89 -8.29 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Dragons May 25 26 – 12 1.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys May 26 24 – 16 9.60 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 22 – 26 0.20 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 27 26 – 33 13.30 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 28 28 – 18 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 02 Raiders -4.60
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Jun 03 Warriors 3.90
3 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 03 Rabbitohs -11.90
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 03 Sharks 5.70
5 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 04 Roosters 13.00
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Jun 04 Storm -4.80
7 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 04 Panthers 19.60

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.36 6.34 1.00
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 5.27 -0.50
Racing 92 4.43 4.86 -0.40
Lyon 3.87 3.10 0.80
Toulon 3.84 4.09 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.36 -1.05 4.40
Montpellier 2.67 4.18 -1.50
Clermont 2.03 4.05 -2.00
Castres Olympique 0.04 2.87 -2.80
Section Paloise -0.21 -2.12 1.90
Aviron Bayonnais -1.41 -4.26 2.80
USA Perpignan -3.60 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.85 -4.20 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 29 26 – 16 10.20 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 May 29 32 – 25 3.80 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais May 29 14 – 10 10.70 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 29 53 – 19 10.30 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier May 29 35 – 10 2.20 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive May 29 54 – 10 19.20 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles May 29 35 – 19 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Jun 03 Stade Francais 5.40
2 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 05 Lyon 5.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.26 17.95 -0.70
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 13.01 8.81 4.20
Hurricanes 9.95 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.23 6.64 -0.40
Highlanders 0.90 5.04 -4.10
Reds 0.58 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -0.74 -2.50 1.80
Rebels -4.49 -6.19 1.70
Western Force -5.68 -5.54 -0.10
Fijian Drua -9.86 -10.50 0.60
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 26 35 – 30 6.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force May 26 52 – 14 2.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 27 47 – 46 8.00 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 27 42 – 18 23.40 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 27 36 – 25 6.30 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Chiefs May 27 21 – 31 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 Blues 15.80
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 Brumbies 14.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 Reds -6.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 Crusaders -3.80
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 Waratahs 16.50
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 Chiefs -13.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.32 -1.30 5.60
Pumas 4.14 2.84 1.30
Cheetahs 3.06 4.67 -1.60
Bulls 0.53 3.43 -2.90
Western Province -1.55 -3.24 1.70
Griquas -1.86 1.39 -3.30
Lions -2.90 -7.79 4.90
Griffons -15.74 -10.00 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Sharks May 27 9 – 35 -14.40 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Lions May 27 12 – 32 9.10 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas May 28 29 – 29 10.40 FALSE
4 Pumas vs. Bulls May 28 17 – 24 9.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Jun 03 Griquas 3.70
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Jun 03 Bulls 20.30
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Jun 04 Pumas 5.10
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 04 Sharks 11.20

 

May 23, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.03 12.99 0.00
Rabbitohs 9.85 9.35 0.50
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 4.63 6.78 -2.10
Sharks 3.49 4.50 -1.00
Roosters 1.09 7.64 -6.60
Broncos 0.33 -5.92 6.30
Raiders -0.48 1.98 -2.50
Cowboys -1.96 6.23 -8.20
Dragons -2.75 -2.73 -0.00
Sea Eagles -3.75 -5.26 1.50
Dolphins -4.63 -10.00 5.40
Warriors -5.46 -11.12 5.70
Titans -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Wests Tigers -6.81 -13.52 6.70
Bulldogs -8.89 -8.29 -0.60
Knights -9.31 -9.53 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 18 4 – 15 -9.30 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Roosters May 19 24 – 22 -1.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 19 16 – 36 11.70 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Knights May 20 26 – 6 14.60 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 20 66 – 18 -7.30 FALSE
6 Dolphins vs. Storm May 20 16 – 24 -7.50 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 21 20 – 18 -0.00 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 21 14 – 42 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Dragons May 25 Dolphins 1.10
2 Eels vs. Cowboys May 26 Eels 9.60
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 Warriors 0.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 27 Rabbitohs 13.30
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 28 Sea Eagles -2.60

 

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