Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
My automatic updating of scores failed, sorry. Correct results now I hope.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 14.76 | 14.49 | 0.30 |
Blues | 8.45 | 7.80 | 0.70 |
Hurricanes | 6.47 | 7.13 | -0.70 |
Chiefs | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 |
Brumbies | 2.86 | 1.47 | 1.40 |
Highlanders | 2.43 | 2.70 | -0.30 |
Reds | 1.94 | 1.59 | 0.30 |
Rebels | -3.16 | -3.51 | 0.40 |
Waratahs | -6.83 | -5.02 | -1.80 |
Western Force | -13.33 | -13.05 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Feb 26 | 13 – 26 | -6.30 | TRUE |
2 | Reds vs. Rebels | Feb 26 | 23 – 21 | 11.30 | TRUE |
3 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Feb 27 | 16 – 31 | 4.80 | FALSE |
4 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Feb 27 | 61 – 10 | 13.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Mar 05 | Chiefs | 7.50 |
2 | Waratahs vs. Western Force | Mar 05 | Waratahs | 12.00 |
3 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Mar 06 | Crusaders | 13.80 |
4 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Mar 06 | Brumbies | -0.50 |
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