Posts filed under General (3148)

April 30, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.14 8.72 1.40
Storm 6.75 6.03 0.70
Rabbitohs 4.71 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.16 1.81 1.40
Broncos 1.86 2.63 -0.80
Dragons 1.04 0.06 1.00
Sharks 0.97 3.90 -2.90
Eels -1.51 -6.17 4.70
Warriors -1.53 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -1.84 -5.61 3.80
Panthers -2.57 0.93 -3.50
Cowboys -2.96 0.15 -3.10
Bulldogs -3.77 -0.61 -3.20
Titans -4.56 -3.36 -1.20
Wests Tigers -4.67 -5.57 0.90
Knights -7.21 -8.51 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 20 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 13 – 12 14.70 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 24 – 12 0.60 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 18 – 22 -4.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 30 – 14 0.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 24 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 28 – 14 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 Rabbitohs 5.80
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 Cowboys 4.60
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 Storm -2.80
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 Raiders 8.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 Sea Eagles 4.90
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Roosters 17.80
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 Warriors 10.20
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 Eels 0.50

 

April 22, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Chiefs 3.67 8.56 -4.90
Highlanders 2.76 4.01 -1.20
Lions 2.50 8.28 -5.80
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.50 2.00 -1.50
Brumbies -0.22 0.00 -0.20
Stormers -0.32 -0.39 0.10
Sharks -0.67 0.45 -1.10
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -12.45 -16.08 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 17 – 23 6.70 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 14 – 21 10.50 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 23 – 29 -17.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 24 – 12 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 23 – 20 8.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 17 – 19 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 Crusaders 19.10
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 Highlanders -11.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 Hurricanes 7.00
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 Waratahs 5.20
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 Stormers 4.00
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 Jaguares 5.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.31 8.72 1.60
Storm 7.71 6.03 1.70
Rabbitohs 4.73 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.65 1.81 1.80
Sharks 2.53 3.90 -1.40
Dragons 0.87 0.06 0.80
Broncos 0.30 2.63 -2.30
Eels -0.15 -6.17 6.00
Cowboys -2.16 0.15 -2.30
Sea Eagles -2.33 -5.61 3.30
Warriors -2.49 -0.27 -2.20
Panthers -2.59 0.93 -3.50
Titans -3.50 -3.36 -0.10
Bulldogs -4.57 -0.61 -4.00
Wests Tigers -5.74 -5.57 -0.20
Knights -8.57 -8.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 24 – 20 8.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 20 – 21 0.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 10 – 17 6.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 12 – 10 6.90 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 38 – 14 5.50 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 26 – 22 6.70 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 51 – 6 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 12.40
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 14.70
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 Bulldogs 0.60
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 Rabbitohs -4.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 Wests Tigers 0.80
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 Broncos 0.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 Raiders -3.00
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 Eels -5.40

 

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April 19, 2019

In mice

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A few years ago I briefly ran a Twitter account that retweeted science news stories with, as it might be, “In mice”, “In rats”, “In cell cultures”.

Now someone else has a new (and hopefully longer-lasting) effort: @justsaysinmice. For example

and

The point isn’t that there’s something wrong with mouse research. These types of basic science can be enormously valuable. The problem is the headlines (and ledes and first few paragraphs and…) which make much stronger claims about health than the research supports.

Someone seeing “Reused cooking oil ups risk of metastases in breast cancer patients” should be able to assume that that’s what the study found — or even without the causal language, that the study involved metastases in breast cancer patients, rather than  tumours injected into mice.

Scientists should be objecting when their work is mischaracterised that way, but they mostly don’t. Some of them even encourage it.  Readers should also object, but again, they don’t and many of them encourage it.

Briefly

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April 16, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.86 9.43 -1.60
Chiefs 4.44 8.56 -4.10
Highlanders 2.48 4.01 -1.50
Lions 1.73 8.28 -6.60
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.81 2.00 -1.20
Sharks 0.38 0.45 -0.10
Stormers 0.08 -0.39 0.50
Brumbies -0.62 0.00 -0.60
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.40 -3.42 2.00
Rebels -3.78 -7.26 3.50
Reds -6.11 -8.19 2.10
Sunwolves -13.11 -16.08 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 12 43 – 17 17.60 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Stormers Apr 12 24 – 41 2.50 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 13 33 – 29 10.10 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Lions Apr 13 31 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 13 17 – 51 8.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 13 32 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 Chiefs 6.70
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 Sharks 10.50
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 Hurricanes -17.00
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 Highlanders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 Waratahs 8.10
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Stormers 4.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.66 11.13 -0.50
Saracens 9.27 11.19 -1.90
Gloucester Rugby 4.81 1.23 3.60
Northampton Saints 4.09 3.42 0.70
Wasps 3.41 8.30 -4.90
Bath Rugby 2.47 3.11 -0.60
Harlequins 1.88 2.05 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.23 -0.81 2.00
Leicester Tigers 0.10 6.26 -6.20
Worcester Warriors -1.43 -5.18 3.70
Bristol -2.13 -5.60 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -2.78 -3.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 23 – 21 -6.80 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 19 – 26 14.60 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 27 – 23 8.70 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 19 – 20 4.20 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 22 – 27 3.50 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 39 – 17 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 Exeter Chiefs 14.30
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 7.70
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 Northampton Saints -1.40
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 Sale Sharks 4.30
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 Saracens -0.40
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 Gloucester Rugby -0.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.34 8.08 2.30
Glasgow Warriors 10.17 8.55 1.60
Leinster 9.76 9.80 -0.00
Scarlets 3.14 6.39 -3.30
Connacht 3.13 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.71 2.07 -0.40
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.84 0.24 0.60
Edinburgh 0.19 -0.64 0.80
Treviso -0.69 -5.19 4.50
Cheetahs -2.24 -0.83 -1.40
Dragons -10.04 -8.59 -1.40
Southern Kings -11.81 -7.91 -3.90
Zebre -14.83 -10.57 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 38 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 29 – 22 6.70 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 7 – 29 4.90 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 24 – 39 5.60 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 42 – 0 20.90 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 7 – 43 -6.10 TRUE
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 28 – 37 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Apr 27 Cardiff Blues 4.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Apr 27 Cheetahs 14.10
3 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 27 Scarlets -8.70
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 27 Glasgow Warriors -5.50
5 Munster vs. Connacht Apr 27 Munster 11.70
6 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 27 Leinster -3.50
7 Zebre vs. Treviso Apr 27 Treviso -9.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.20 8.72 1.50
Storm 7.82 6.03 1.80
Rabbitohs 4.59 3.89 0.70
Raiders 3.84 1.81 2.00
Sharks 2.86 3.90 -1.00
Dragons 1.21 0.06 1.20
Broncos 0.11 2.63 -2.50
Warriors -1.58 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -2.67 -5.61 2.90
Wests Tigers -2.78 -5.57 2.80
Panthers -2.92 0.93 -3.80
Cowboys -3.07 0.15 -3.20
Eels -3.11 -6.17 3.10
Bulldogs -4.43 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.79 -3.36 -1.40
Knights -7.27 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 16 – 22 7.80 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 12 – 18 -8.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 28 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 18 – 26 -0.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 16 – 30 -2.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 40 – 4 4.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 19 – 0 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 Sharks 8.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 Rabbitohs -6.00
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 Storm 0.60
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 Warriors 6.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Dragons 6.90
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 Titans 5.50
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 Raiders 6.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 Eels 2.70

 

April 15, 2019

Graphic of the week

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From 1News, via Richard Hills on Twitter, a graphic accompanying their latest opinion poll results.

 

If the picture of Parliament isn’t supposed to have some quantitative relationship to the opinion figures, it shouldn’t be in party colours.

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