Posts filed under General (3152)

September 12, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 20.07 14.78 5.30
Taranaki 5.49 7.04 -1.50
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Otago 4.60 -0.34 4.90
Tasman 4.24 9.54 -5.30
Counties Manukau 3.29 5.70 -2.40
Wellington 3.14 -1.62 4.80
Waikato -0.79 -0.26 -0.50
Auckland -1.87 6.11 -8.00
Manawatu -3.81 -3.59 -0.20
Bay of Plenty -3.83 -3.98 0.10
Northland -4.06 -12.37 8.30
Hawke’s Bay -13.28 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -21.09 -16.50 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 40 – 27 17.70 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 18 – 27 4.40 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 78 – 20 42.30 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 17 – 20 5.60 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 38 – 49 -1.70 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 37 – 7 -5.70 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 37 – 35 5.40 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 21 – 64 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 Canterbury 20.80
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 North Harbour -5.40
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 Auckland -15.20
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 Taranaki 13.30
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 Waikato 7.00
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 Otago 4.40
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 Counties Manukau 20.60
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Canterbury -12.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.36 2.15 2.20
Western Province 4.04 3.30 0.70
Lions 3.41 7.41 -4.00
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -7.60 -10.63 3.00
Griquas -10.29 -11.62 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 17 – 34 -8.50 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 57 – 14 3.20 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 25 – 27 -8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 Western Province -7.10
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 Sharks -10.10
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 Lions 7.80

 

September 6, 2017

Threshold and discards

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There have been a few discussions on Twitter about what happens to votes for parties who don’t make the threshold of 5% or one electorate. I’m going to try to make it clearer than is feasible in 140 characters, but without mentioning quotients.

If you voted for a party that gets less than 5% of the party vote and does not win any electorate, your party vote is not used in determining the list seats.  It doesn’t get reassigned, reweighted, or re-anything. It just isn’t used — exactly as if those people hadn’t cast a Party vote. (Electoral Act, section 191 (4)). Last time, about 150,000 votes were set aside at this point.

The votes for the parties that are left (2.3 million, last time) are now used to allocate 120 seats.  Complicated procedures are used to work out a number of votes per seat, call it N.  The total for each party is divided by N, and rounded to the nearest whole  number, so you need at least ½N to get one seat, 1½N to get two seats and so on. (That’s not how the Electoral Act describes it; this is the equivalent ‘Webster’ method rather than the ‘Sainte-Laguë’ method).

So what are the implications?

I don’t like the term ‘wasted’ vote — if you’re voting for, say, Ban 1080 or Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis, it’s presumably not in the expectation of getting representation in Parliament, but more as a way of making your views known.  However, if your intent is to increase representation in Parliament of people whose views you support, this is the basic guideline

  • If the opinion polls show a party is nowhere near the 5%/one electorate threshold, the expected impact of increased votes for that party  on the composition of Parliament is very small (compared to a major party)
  • If the opinion polls show a party is close to the 5% threshold (in either direction) and isn’t certain to get an electorate, the expected impact of increased votes for that party  on the composition of Parliament is relatively large (compared to a major party)
  • If a party is reasonably certain to get an electorate or to get over the 5% threshold, he expected impact of increased votes for that party  on the composition of Parliament is about the same as for a major party.
September 5, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.68 8.49 7.20
Broncos 6.96 4.36 2.60
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Sharks 2.98 5.84 -2.90
Cowboys 2.25 6.90 -4.70
Panthers 2.00 6.08 -4.10
Eels 1.26 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.93 -1.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -0.33 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 10 – 20 0.50 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 22 – 16 9.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 20 – 16 15.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 28 – 12 -1.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 32 – 6 13.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 0 – 18 -7.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 20 – 26 8.40 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 28 – 16 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 Broncos -2.50
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 Storm 17.90
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 Panthers -2.30
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 4.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.88 2.15 2.70
Cheetahs 4.29 4.33 -0.00
Lions 3.05 7.41 -4.40
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.12 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -9.93 -11.62 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 44 – 42 15.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 45 – 15 3.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 29 – 28 16.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 Lions -8.50
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 Western Province 3.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 Sharks -8.50

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.66 14.78 3.90
Taranaki 4.65 7.04 -2.40
Tasman 4.59 9.54 -5.00
Counties Manukau 4.49 5.70 -1.20
North Harbour 4.09 -1.27 5.40
Wellington 3.23 -1.62 4.80
Waikato 2.42 -0.26 2.70
Otago 1.40 -0.34 1.70
Auckland -1.03 6.11 -7.10
Manawatu -3.04 -3.59 0.50
Bay of Plenty -4.60 -3.98 -0.60
Northland -7.27 -12.37 5.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.51 -5.85 -4.70
Southland -19.68 -16.50 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 27 – 35 7.00 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 10 – 31 -0.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 10 – 53 -21.20 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 40 – 30 8.10 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 13 – 44 -3.50 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 30 – 27 4.40 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 29 – 31 1.30 FALSE
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 57 – 10 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 Wellington 17.70
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Counties Manukau 4.40
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 Canterbury 42.30
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Manawatu 5.60
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 Taranaki -1.70
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 Waikato -5.70
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 Tasman 5.40
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 Otago -7.90

 

August 29, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.65 8.49 6.20
Broncos 6.13 4.36 1.80
Raiders 5.10 9.94 -4.80
Panthers 3.37 6.08 -2.70
Cowboys 3.08 6.90 -3.80
Sharks 2.13 5.84 -3.70
Roosters 1.83 -1.17 3.00
Eels 1.54 -0.81 2.30
Dragons 0.20 -7.74 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.70 -2.98 1.30
Rabbitohs -4.12 -1.82 -2.30
Wests Tigers -4.17 -3.89 -0.30
Bulldogs -4.69 -1.34 -3.40
Warriors -6.79 -6.02 -0.80
Knights -8.68 -16.94 8.30
Titans -9.92 -0.98 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 24 34 – 52 12.70 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 25 46 – 28 17.10 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 25 14 – 22 -2.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 14 – 26 0.20 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 26 64 – 6 16.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 14 – 16 4.90 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 21 – 22 -1.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Dragons Aug 27 14 – 16 8.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 Cowboys 0.50
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 Eels 9.20
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 Roosters 15.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 Storm 13.10
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 Sharks -7.30
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 Dragons 8.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 Wests Tigers 6.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.70 14.78 1.90
Taranaki 4.78 7.04 -2.30
Auckland 4.47 6.11 -1.60
Counties Manukau 4.36 5.70 -1.30
Tasman 4.16 9.54 -5.40
Waikato 1.50 -0.26 1.80
Wellington 1.34 -1.62 3.00
Otago 1.23 -0.34 1.60
North Harbour -0.07 -1.27 1.20
Bay of Plenty -2.72 -3.98 1.30
Manawatu -2.87 -3.59 0.70
Hawke’s Bay -8.55 -5.85 -2.70
Northland -9.75 -12.37 2.60
Southland -17.20 -16.50 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 20 – 45 -10.50 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 46 – 17 5.60 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 33 – 21 -1.30 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 42 – 26 -2.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 10 – 8 21.80 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 35 – 20 -7.00 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 30 – 24 22.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 7.00
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 Wellington -0.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -21.20
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 Otago 8.10
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 Northland -3.50
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 4.40
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 Waikato 1.30
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 4.09 2.15 1.90
Lions 3.60 7.41 -3.80
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.58 2.32 -1.70
Pumas -8.67 -10.63 2.00
Griquas -10.42 -11.62 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 51 – 15 -7.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 26 30 – 24 6.00 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 26 20 – 21 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 Blue Bulls 15.50
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 Sharks 3.50
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 Lions 16.80

 

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FDA doesn’t make vaccine approvals impossible

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There’s a trial of a herpes vaccine being conducted on the Caribbean island of St Kitts, because it can be done there without any ethical or regulatory oversight.  This is not a good precedent.

One of the investors involved a well-known NZ not-precisely-immigrant, Peter Thiel. He has said in the past  “you would not be able to invent the polio vaccine today.” Perhaps he should talk to the people who think there are far too many new vaccines nowadays.  They’re both wrong.

Because this is the sort of factoid that gets passed around, I thought a list of some recently approved vaccines  might be helpful.  They’re taken from this list:

20-30 years ago: Hepatitis A vaccine (PDF). Hemophilus influenzae Type B vaccine (PDF)

10-20 years ago: Intranasal quadrivalent flu vaccine (PDF).  Meningococcal Group A, C, Y, W (PDF). Shingles (PDF)

less than 10 years ago: Human papilloma virus (PDF). Injected quadrivalent flu vaccine (PDF). Japanese encephalitis vaccine (PDF) Live-bacteria cholera vaccine (PDF). Meningococcal Group B (PDF). Rotavirus (PDF)

 

And, polio vaccine? If you look at the consultation procedures used in designing the polio vaccine trial, back when randomised trials were new and controversial, you’d be glad to just deal with an ethics committee and an FDA advisory panel.

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