Posts filed under General (1257)

October 3, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.89 2.15 3.70
Western Province 3.98 3.30 0.70
Lions 2.44 7.41 -5.00
Cheetahs 1.59 4.33 -2.70
Blue Bulls 0.01 2.32 -2.30
Pumas -6.51 -10.63 4.10
Griquas -10.15 -11.62 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 29 24 – 10 6.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sep 30 59 – 24 -9.50 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 01 45 – 46 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. They have another such game this weekend causing problems with prediction. After 4 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 27 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 25 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being 6.1 below, it might be -19 and a win to the Blue Bulls.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 06 Cheetahs 6.10
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 07 Griquas 0.90
3 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 08 Lions 3.00

 

September 27, 2017

Briefly

  • “This 30-point shift could be because attitudes changed rapidly. Villasenor’s study was immediately after Charlottesville, for example, and students might be more primed to think about Nazi’s marching on their campus…It could also be because of differences in survey methods. Surveying college students is really hard.
  • From the Ottawa CitizenIn six high-profile cases documented by the Citizen, searching the name of a young offender or victim online pointed to media coverage of their court cases, even though their names do not appear anywhere in the news articles themselves.
September 26, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.31 2.15 3.20
Western Province 3.84 3.30 0.50
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Cheetahs 2.73 4.33 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.16 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -6.51 -10.63 4.10
Griquas -11.29 -11.62 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 18 – 5 9.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 55 – 27 18.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 33 – 32 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. With little experience so far it is difficult to estimate the difference in expected points this might make. After 3 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 23 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 21 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being -9.50 below, it might be 11.5 and a win to Griquas.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 29 Sharks 6.80
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sep 30 Cheetahs -9.50
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 01 Blue Bulls 0.80

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.36 14.78 4.60
Wellington 10.36 -1.62 12.00
Taranaki 7.63 7.04 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Tasman 4.84 9.54 -4.70
Otago 3.81 -0.34 4.20
Counties Manukau -0.79 5.70 -6.50
Manawatu -1.32 -3.59 2.30
Bay of Plenty -1.63 -3.98 2.30
Auckland -2.13 6.11 -8.20
Waikato -4.08 -0.26 -3.80
Northland -5.07 -12.37 7.30
Hawke’s Bay -14.93 -5.85 -9.10
Southland -23.97 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 57 – 0 20.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 34 – 26 10.40 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 39 – 25 6.40 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 28 – 41 -9.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 10 – 34 -7.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 17 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 31 – 31 0.50 FALSE
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 50 – 17 29.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 Otago -4.90
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 Taranaki 6.80
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 North Harbour 24.20
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 Manawatu -18.60
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 Auckland 3.50
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 Canterbury 27.40
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 Wellington 10.50
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 Counties Manukau 8.30

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.88 8.49 7.40
Broncos 5.08 4.36 0.70
Cowboys 4.71 6.90 -2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Panthers 2.80 6.08 -3.30
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.60 -0.81 2.40
Roosters 0.21 -1.17 1.40
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 120 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 22 30 – 0 11.40 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 23 16 – 29 1.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Oct 01 Storm 11.20

 

September 19, 2017

Briefly

  • During the Cold War, there were a few occasions where a nuclear war could easily have started if one person hadn’t got in the way. One of those people was Stanislav Petrov. He died this week.
  • I saw a pharmacy in Ponsonby advertising “Ultrasound bone density screening for all ages”. There’s no way screening for osteoporosis makes sense ‘for all ages’, even if it was free (which it isn’t).
  • As I’ve mentioned a few times, the UK has an independent Statistics Authority whose chair is supposed to monitor and rebuke misuses of official statistics. The chair, Sir David Norgrove, criticised Boris Johnson over the £350m “savings” from Brexit he has kept repeating. We don’t have anything similar, sadly.
  • If you’re interested in the history of data journalism, you could do worse than reading Alberto Cairo’s PhD thesis. Dr Cairo is a former data journalist, current professor of visual journalism at the University of Miami, and one of next year’s Ihaka Lecture speakers here in Auckland.
  • Janelle Shane has a blog with examples of neural networks generalising from a wide range of inputs (recipes, hamster names, craft beers). Her current post is on D&D spell names, and shows the importance of a large input set for these networks: would you prefer your character to cast “Plonting Cloud” or “Wall of Storm”?
  • Kieran Healy, of Duke University, has an online book Data Visualization for Social Science. Yes, if you think you recognise the name, it’s him.
  • The American Statistical Association and the New York Times are partnering in a new monthly feature, “What’s Going On in This Graph?”

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.43 8.49 5.90
Broncos 6.53 4.36 2.20
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Cowboys 3.58 6.90 -3.30
Panthers 2.80 6.08 -3.30
Sharks 2.55 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.60 -0.81 2.40
Roosters 1.34 -1.17 2.50
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Sea Eagles -1.11 -2.98 1.90
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 15 13 – 6 7.30 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Sep 16 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 22 Storm 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 23 Roosters 1.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.04 14.78 4.30
Wellington 8.87 -1.62 10.50
Taranaki 6.27 7.04 -0.80
North Harbour 5.62 -1.27 6.90
Tasman 4.82 9.54 -4.70
Otago 4.03 -0.34 4.40
Counties Manukau -1.13 5.70 -6.80
Manawatu -2.01 -3.59 1.60
Auckland -2.34 6.11 -8.40
Waikato -2.59 -0.26 -2.30
Northland -4.38 -12.37 8.00
Bay of Plenty -4.61 -3.98 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay -13.56 -5.85 -7.70
Southland -20.62 -16.50 -4.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 13 78 – 5 20.80 TRUE
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 14 22 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 27 -15.20 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 15 29 – 7 13.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 16 10 – 23 7.00 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 16 27 – 29 4.40 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 17 33 – 14 20.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 17 60 – 14 -12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 Bay of Plenty 20.00
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 Otago 10.40
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 Manawatu 6.40
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 Canterbury -9.40
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -7.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 Taranaki -15.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 Bay of Plenty 0.50
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 Tasman 29.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.99 2.15 2.80
Western Province 3.46 3.30 0.20
Cheetahs 3.23 4.33 -1.10
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Blue Bulls 0.47 2.32 -1.90
Pumas -7.01 -10.63 3.60
Griquas -10.91 -11.62 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 15 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 16 22 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 16 36 – 33 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 Sharks 9.00
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 Western Province 18.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 Cheetahs 14.70

 

September 18, 2017

But probably not

Q: Did you see icecream for breakfast may improve mental performance?

icecream

A: Pigs may fly

Q: But it’s a STUDY

A: That’s actually one of the questions left unresolved.

Q: Just follow the link. The International Business Times links to their source.

A: That link is to a Japanese news site. And it’s 404.

Q: Already? The tweet was just from this weekend.

A: The story is from November last year.

Q: But there’s a professor! Isn’t he real? Can’t you look at his publications.

A: Yes, he’s real. And he has publications. And they aren’t about icecream for breakfast.

Q: Back to the icecream. It could still be true, even if the data aren’t published, right?

A: Sure. In fact there’s a fair chance that, compared to no breakfast, icecream could improve mental performance.

Q: The comparison was to not eating anything?

A: It was compared to a glass of cold water.

Q: So, what does this tell us?

A: 2017 must be a slow news year.