Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

April 28, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.92 10.30 2.60
Leicester Tigers 10.24 5.55 4.70
Saracens 9.21 5.03 4.20
Northampton Saints 6.86 -1.47 8.30
Bristol 5.51 3.66 1.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.10 -4.58 7.70
Sale Sharks -0.83 6.70 -7.50
Gloucester -5.88 4.13 -10.00
Harlequins -10.66 -3.02 -7.60
Newcastle Red Bulls -22.62 -18.45 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bristol Apr 25 19 – 52 -19.00 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 26 33 – 52 0.00 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Apr 26 41 – 38 0.40 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 26 19 – 15 6.50 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 27 34 – 31 -3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks May 09 Gloucester 2.00
2 Bristol vs. Saracens May 10 Bristol 3.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints May 10 Leicester Tigers 10.40
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath May 11 Bath -2.80
5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Harlequins May 11 Harlequins -5.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.83 11.56 2.30
Montpellier 5.15 -0.21 5.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.07 4.78 0.30
Section Paloise 4.38 2.21 2.20
Stade Rochelais 3.57 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.51 1.88 1.60
Stade Francais 2.97 -2.17 5.10
Racing 92 2.83 1.88 0.90
Toulon 0.41 3.49 -3.10
Lyon 0.05 -0.45 0.50
Castres Olympique -1.05 0.59 -1.60
Bayonne -2.86 1.48 -4.30
USA Perpignan -4.59 -3.37 -1.20
Montauban -20.38 -10.00 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Apr 26 21 – 23 7.10 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Apr 26 26 – 21 8.00 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Racing 92 Apr 26 10 – 59 -14.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Apr 26 34 – 32 5.50 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Bayonne Apr 26 52 – 26 8.60 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 26 29 – 31 -1.60 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Apr 27 24 – 27 18.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles May 10 Bordeaux Begles -1.40
2 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 10 Clermont 14.60
3 Montpellier vs. Montauban May 10 Montpellier 32.00
4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique May 10 Section Paloise 11.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 10 Stade Francais 9.40
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 10 Stade Toulousain -6.90
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 Racing 92 5.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.07 8.77 6.30
Roosters 7.58 9.50 -1.90
Broncos 5.58 7.06 -1.50
Sharks 4.40 7.25 -2.80
Sea Eagles 2.45 0.21 2.20
Warriors 2.32 -1.18 3.50
Rabbitohs 0.83 -5.05 5.90
Storm 0.29 6.96 -6.70
Dolphins 0.12 1.85 -1.70
Wests Tigers -0.31 -7.26 6.90
Bulldogs -0.94 2.13 -3.10
Cowboys -1.92 -2.69 0.80
Raiders -2.80 1.62 -4.40
Eels -5.15 -0.37 -4.80
Titans -5.40 -8.02 2.60
Knights -9.30 -14.06 4.80
Dragons -12.81 -6.72 -6.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 23 33 – 14 4.30 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Apr 24 46 – 34 -4.70 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 32 – 12 8.80 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 16 – 62 -21.00 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dolphins Apr 25 20 – 18 7.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 6 – 48 9.80 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 26 12 – 44 -18.30 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 33 – 18 10.60 TRUE

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys May 01 Bulldogs 5.00
2 Dolphins vs. Storm May 01 Dolphins 3.80
3 Titans vs. Raiders May 02 Titans 1.40
4 Eels vs. Warriors May 02 Warriors -3.50
5 Roosters vs. Broncos May 02 Roosters 6.00
6 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 03 Rabbitohs -6.10
7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 03 Sharks 8.70
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 03 Panthers 16.60

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.87 8.86 0.00
Leinster 8.00 13.41 -5.40
Stormers 6.62 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 5.37 6.18 -0.80
Lions 3.93 -1.19 5.10
Munster 3.51 3.65 -0.10
Connacht 0.65 -1.39 2.00
Ulster 0.27 -3.24 3.50
Sharks 0.10 1.29 -1.20
Cardiff Rugby -1.69 -2.74 1.00
Scarlets -2.47 -0.54 -1.90
Ospreys -2.65 -2.15 -0.50
Edinburgh -2.82 2.67 -5.50
Benetton -5.38 -2.32 -3.10
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -12.71 -11.02 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Apr 25 24 – 21 2.90 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Apr 25 33 – 28 3.80 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Dragons Apr 25 18 – 19 5.30 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Glasgow Apr 25 48 – 12 5.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 26 33 – 21 9.80 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Ulster Apr 26 41 – 14 2.80 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Leinster Apr 26 29 – 26 -7.70 FALSE
8 Scarlets vs. Bulls Apr 26 21 – 23 -5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby May 09 Glasgow 14.10
2 Ulster vs. Stormers May 09 Ulster 0.70
3 Bulls vs. Zebre May 09 Bulls 28.60
4 Sharks vs. Benetton May 10 Sharks 12.50
5 Leinster vs. Lions May 10 Leinster 11.10
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 10 Ospreys 1.80
7 Connacht vs. Munster May 10 Munster -0.90
8 Dragons vs. Edinburgh May 10 Dragons 0.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 12.70 8.29 4.40
Chiefs 12.04 12.36 -0.30
Blues 8.35 8.91 -0.60
Crusaders 7.53 8.41 -0.90
Brumbies 4.01 5.59 -1.60
Reds 0.81 1.74 -0.90
Highlanders -2.45 -3.06 0.60
Western Force -4.01 -6.29 2.30
Waratahs -4.74 -5.84 1.10
Fijian Drua -7.65 -7.64 -0.00
Moana Pasifika -12.00 -7.88 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Apr 24 35 – 20 15.90 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 25 45 – 12 10.50 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Reds Apr 25 36 – 33 11.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 26 27 – 17 9.50 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 42 – 22 23.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders May 01 Hurricanes 10.20
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force May 01 Waratahs 4.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders May 02 Highlanders -1.70
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues May 02 Blues -15.40
5 Reds vs. Brumbies May 02 Reds 1.80

 

April 21, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 25.06 26.75 -1.70
Brisbane Lions 22.02 26.20 -4.20
Western Bulldogs 20.59 26.06 -5.50
Hawthorn Hawks 20.25 22.83 -2.60
Sydney Swans 19.33 0.56 18.80
Fremantle Dockers 12.95 6.56 6.40
Adelaide Crows 12.56 15.32 -2.80
Gold Coast Suns 9.73 10.24 -0.50
Collingwood 7.16 11.76 -4.60
GWS Giants 4.07 9.54 -5.50
Melbourne Demons -1.46 1.64 -3.10
St Kilda Saints -2.87 -7.63 4.80
Carlton Blues -10.18 -4.77 -5.40
Port Adelaide Power -12.27 -14.65 2.40
North Melbourne -13.45 -21.71 8.30
Essendon Bombers -21.38 -27.89 6.50
Richmond Tigers -40.01 -29.44 -10.60
West Coast Eagles -40.10 -39.36 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood Apr 16 83 – 88 -19.70 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 17 131 – 56 5.30 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Apr 17 107 – 66 23.50 TRUE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 18 119 – 110 48.00 TRUE
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 18 89 – 86 50.60 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 18 103 – 102 31.00 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 19 130 – 55 18.20 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 19 104 – 102 -15.20 FALSE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 19 41 – 97 -52.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans Apr 23 Western Bulldogs 12.30
2 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 Melbourne Demons -33.60
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 25 Hawthorn Hawks 21.50
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 Collingwood -23.50
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Apr 25 Geelong Cats -26.30
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues Apr 25 Fremantle Dockers 34.10
7 St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 26 St Kilda Saints 48.20
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 26 Brisbane Lions 20.50
9 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Apr 26 GWS Giants 28.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.05 8.77 5.30
Roosters 5.88 9.50 -3.60
Sharks 5.60 7.25 -1.60
Broncos 4.72 7.06 -2.30
Storm 3.44 6.96 -3.50
Warriors 2.91 -1.18 4.10
Sea Eagles 1.97 0.21 1.80
Bulldogs -0.08 2.13 -2.20
Dolphins -0.47 1.85 -2.30
Wests Tigers -1.39 -7.26 5.90
Raiders -1.72 1.62 -3.30
Rabbitohs -2.32 -5.05 2.70
Cowboys -3.12 -2.69 -0.40
Eels -4.67 -0.37 -4.30
Titans -5.40 -8.02 2.60
Knights -8.29 -14.06 5.80
Dragons -11.11 -6.72 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Apr 16 6 – 38 3.50 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 17 26 – 22 -2.60 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 17 22 – 23 -12.20 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 18 28 – 20 13.50 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 18 30 – 12 11.30 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 18 20 – 21 -2.40 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Knights Apr 19 38 – 24 19.30 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 19 38 – 20 -3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 23 Wests Tigers 4.30
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Apr 24 Sharks -4.70
3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 Broncos 8.80
4 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -21.00
5 Warriors vs. Dolphins Apr 25 Warriors 7.40
6 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 Storm 9.80
7 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 26 Panthers -18.30
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 Sea Eagles 10.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.23 12.36 -0.10
Hurricanes 11.85 8.29 3.60
Blues 8.75 8.91 -0.20
Crusaders 7.59 8.41 -0.80
Brumbies 4.86 5.59 -0.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -2.49 -3.06 0.60
Western Force -4.01 -6.29 2.30
Waratahs -4.81 -5.84 1.00
Fijian Drua -7.84 -7.64 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -11.97 -7.88 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 17 47 – 40 17.10 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 17 29 – 14 10.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 18 22 – 17 5.40 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 18 28 – 33 19.50 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 18 31 – 26 -9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Apr 24 Crusaders 15.90
2 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 25 Hurricanes 10.50
3 Blues vs. Reds Apr 25 Blues 11.80
4 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 26 Highlanders 14.50
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 Chiefs 23.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.18 10.30 2.90
Leicester Tigers 9.99 5.55 4.40
Saracens 9.45 5.03 4.40
Northampton Saints 6.61 -1.47 8.10
Bristol 4.44 3.66 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.73 -4.58 8.30
Sale Sharks -2.25 6.70 -9.00
Gloucester -6.50 4.13 -10.60
Harlequins -9.25 -3.02 -6.20
Newcastle Red Bulls -21.55 -18.45 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 18 53 – 12 14.10 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Apr 19 48 – 15 28.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 28 – 35 6.20 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Apr 19 62 – 3 35.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 20 19 – 85 4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bristol Apr 25 Bristol -19.00
2 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 26 Harlequins 0.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Apr 26 Northampton Saints 0.40
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 26 Saracens 6.50
5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 27 Exeter Chiefs -3.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.52 11.56 3.00
Bordeaux Begles 5.42 4.78 0.60
Montpellier 4.79 -0.21 5.00
Section Paloise 4.17 2.21 2.00
Stade Rochelais 3.55 1.22 2.30
Stade Francais 3.18 -2.17 5.40
Clermont 2.82 1.88 0.90
Racing 92 1.82 1.88 -0.10
Lyon 0.23 -0.45 0.70
Toulon -0.18 3.49 -3.70
Castres Olympique -1.23 0.59 -1.80
Bayonne -2.27 1.48 -3.70
USA Perpignan -4.56 -3.37 -1.20
Montauban -19.36 -10.00 -9.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 19 22 – 54 2.10 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 19 25 – 42 -8.20 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 19 41 – 23 8.40 TRUE
4 Montauban vs. Toulon Apr 19 22 – 47 -11.70 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 19 42 – 31 16.50 TRUE
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 19 45 – 15 2.90 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 20 47 – 20 3.60 TRUE

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Apr 26 Bordeaux Begles 7.10
2 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Apr 26 Lyon 8.00
3 Montauban vs. Racing 92 Apr 26 Racing 92 -14.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Apr 26 Stade Francais 5.50
5 Toulon vs. Bayonne Apr 26 Toulon 8.60
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 26 Stade Rochelais -1.60
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Apr 27 Stade Toulousain 18.20
« Later posts
Earlier posts »