Posts filed under Sports statistics (1768)

March 5, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.75 26.75 0.00
Brisbane Lions 26.20 26.20 0.00
Western Bulldogs 26.06 26.06 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 22.83 22.83 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 15.32 15.32 0.00
Collingwood 11.76 11.76 0.00
Gold Coast Suns 10.24 10.24 0.00
GWS Giants 9.54 9.54 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 6.56 0.00
Melbourne Demons 1.64 1.64 0.00
Sydney Swans 0.56 0.56 0.00
Carlton Blues -4.77 -4.77 -0.00
St Kilda Saints -7.63 -7.63 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power -14.65 -14.65 -0.00
North Melbourne -21.71 -21.71 0.00
Essendon Bombers -27.89 -27.89 0.00
Richmond Tigers -29.44 -29.44 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -39.36 -39.36 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues Mar 05 Sydney Swans 16.30
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Geelong Cats -5.50
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Hawthorn Hawks -2.30
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 07 Brisbane Lions 11.10
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 08 Collingwood -19.40

 

March 3, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Not sure how I missed posting this one, but here it is for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.20 11.56 2.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.70 4.78 0.90
Montpellier 4.13 -0.21 4.30
Clermont 3.69 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.97 2.21 0.80
Stade Rochelais 2.19 1.22 1.00
Stade Francais 1.55 -2.17 3.70
Lyon 1.09 -0.45 1.50
Racing 92 0.92 1.88 -1.00
Toulon 0.18 3.49 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.59 -0.70
Bayonne -2.01 1.48 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.63 -3.37 -1.30
Montauban -17.01 -10.00 -7.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Feb 15 57 – 32 11.30 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Feb 15 36 – 41 4.30 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montauban Feb 15 73 – 12 22.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 15 33 – 43 5.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 15 40 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Feb 15 14 – 34 4.50 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 16 9 – 13 -6.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 Castres Olympique 4.20
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 Clermont 12.20
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 Lyon 7.40
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 Montpellier 9.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 Stade Francais 12.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 Stade Toulousain 37.70
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Section Paloise 3.80
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Bulls 8.56 8.86 -0.30
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Stormers 5.72 4.17 1.60
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Edinburgh 1.22 2.67 -1.50
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Ulster 0.61 -3.24 3.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Connacht -1.19 -1.39 0.20
Scarlets -1.82 -0.54 -1.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Feb 28 8 – 7 -5.60 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 24 – 19 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 01 24 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 01 41 – 12 9.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Mar 01 15 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Benetton Mar 01 15 – 15 2.50 FALSE
7 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 01 21 – 7 22.00 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Mar 01 21 – 10 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 Edinburgh 7.60
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 Connacht 7.60
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 Bulls 4.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.79 11.56 3.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.09 4.78 0.30
Montpellier 4.63 -0.21 4.80
Clermont 4.09 1.88 2.20
Section Paloise 3.58 2.21 1.40
Stade Rochelais 2.55 1.22 1.30
Stade Francais 2.05 -2.17 4.20
Lyon 0.64 -0.45 1.10
Toulon 0.63 3.49 -2.90
Racing 92 0.41 1.88 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.45 0.59 -1.00
Bayonne -2.41 1.48 -3.90
USA Perpignan -5.13 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -17.59 -10.00 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 26 – 31 4.20 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 38 – 15 12.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 13 – 13 7.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 41 – 17 9.70 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 42 – 21 12.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 68 – 13 37.70 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 39 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 Clermont 6.00
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 Bayonne -8.70
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 Racing 92 7.40
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 Stade Rochelais 5.50
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 Toulon 5.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 USA Perpignan 0.70
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 Stade Toulousain -3.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.51 12.36 -0.80
Blues 8.44 8.91 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.35 8.29 0.10
Crusaders 7.72 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 7.63 5.59 2.00
Reds 1.23 1.74 -0.50
Highlanders -2.78 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -6.33 -6.29 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.72 -7.88 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 19 – 35 2.60 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 31 – 14 6.60 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 25 – 20 -14.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 33 – 43 10.40 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 30 – 27 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 Chiefs 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Hurricanes -9.10
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 Highlanders 7.00
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 Blues 5.70
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 Brumbies 11.40

 

February 24, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.50 9.50 -0.00
Panthers 8.77 8.77 -0.00
Sharks 7.25 7.25 0.00
Broncos 7.06 7.06 0.00
Storm 6.96 6.96 0.00
Bulldogs 2.13 2.13 0.00
Dolphins 1.85 1.85 -0.00
Raiders 1.62 1.62 0.00
Sea Eagles 0.21 0.21 -0.00
Eels -0.37 -0.37 0.00
Warriors -1.18 -1.18 -0.00
Cowboys -2.69 -2.69 -0.00
Rabbitohs -5.05 -5.05 0.00
Dragons -6.72 -6.72 -0.00
Wests Tigers -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Titans -8.02 -8.02 -0.00
Knights -14.06 -14.06 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Cowboys Mar 01 Cowboys -11.40
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 01 Bulldogs 8.80
3 Storm vs. Eels Mar 05 Storm 11.30
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 06 Roosters -6.70
5 Broncos vs. Panthers Mar 06 Broncos 2.30
6 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 07 Sharks 19.30
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 07 Sea Eagles 2.60
8 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 08 Dolphins 10.90

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.29 12.36 -0.10
Hurricanes 9.11 8.29 0.80
Blues 8.47 8.91 -0.40
Brumbies 7.60 5.59 2.00
Crusaders 6.94 8.41 -1.50
Reds 0.77 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -2.33 -3.06 0.70
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -7.05 -6.29 -0.80
Moana Pasifika -7.99 -7.88 -0.10
Fijian Drua -8.94 -7.64 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 20 52 – 10 20.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 20 36 – 13 8.50 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 23 – 26 -10.30 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Blues Feb 21 32 – 42 -12.30 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 22 24 – 50 5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 Moana Pasifika 2.60
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 Reds 6.60
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 Hurricanes -14.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 Chiefs 10.40
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 Brumbies 2.60

 

February 17, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.63 12.36 0.30
Blues 8.63 8.91 -0.30
Hurricanes 8.29 8.29 -0.00
Crusaders 8.03 8.41 -0.40
Brumbies 6.51 5.59 0.90
Reds 0.77 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -2.67 -3.06 0.40
Waratahs -4.88 -5.84 1.00
Moana Pasifika -7.18 -7.88 0.70
Western Force -7.21 -6.29 -0.90
Fijian Drua -8.34 -7.64 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 20%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 13 25 – 23 -6.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 13 36 – 12 -2.60 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 14 26 – 40 3.70 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 14 15 – 19 1.60 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 14 24 – 56 -6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 20 Hurricanes 20.50
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 20 Waratahs 8.50
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 Chiefs -10.30
4 Western Force vs. Blues Feb 21 Blues -12.30
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Crusaders 5.00

 

February 11, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.36 12.36 0.00
Blues 8.91 8.91 0.00
Crusaders 8.41 8.41 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.29 8.29 -0.00
Brumbies 5.59 5.59 0.00
Reds 1.74 1.74 0.00
Highlanders -3.06 -3.06 -0.00
Waratahs -5.84 -5.84 0.00
Western Force -6.29 -6.29 0.00
Fijian Drua -7.64 -7.64 0.00
Moana Pasifika -7.88 -7.88 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 13 Crusaders -6.50
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 13 Reds -2.60
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 14 Fijian Drua 3.70
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 14 Blues 1.60
5 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 14 Brumbies -6.90

 

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February 3, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.88 13.41 -3.50
Glasgow 8.15 6.18 2.00
Bulls 7.54 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 6.72 4.17 2.60
Munster 2.43 3.65 -1.20
Edinburgh 1.93 2.67 -0.70
Ulster 1.14 -3.24 4.40
Sharks 0.65 1.29 -0.60
Lions -0.93 -1.19 0.30
Connacht -1.71 -1.39 -0.30
Scarlets -2.53 -0.54 -2.00
Cardiff Rugby -2.73 -2.74 0.00
Ospreys -2.99 -2.15 -0.80
Benetton -5.21 -2.32 -2.90
Dragons -9.74 -15.66 5.90
Zebre -12.61 -11.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Scarlets Jan 31 20 – 20 5.50 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Jan 31 31 – 22 13.80 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 01 17 – 52 -3.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 01 36 – 24 -6.00 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 01 15 – 31 -2.30 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Feb 01 28 – 20 16.00 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Dragons Feb 01 19 – 13 9.50 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 01 21 – 14 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 22 Lions 0.40

 

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