Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

February 18, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.01 17.10 -1.10
Chiefs 8.18 5.91 2.30
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 7.41 7.23 0.20
Highlanders 2.96 4.53 -1.60
Stormers 2.37 -0.71 3.10
Sharks 1.36 -0.87 2.20
Brumbies 0.68 2.01 -1.30
Blues 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Reds -4.65 -5.86 1.20
Rebels -7.63 -7.84 0.20
Sunwolves -18.13 -18.45 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 8 – 25 -9.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 24 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 17 – 43 -19.10 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 38 – 22 11.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 22 – 23 4.80 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 30 – 33 1.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 43 – 27 18.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 Crusaders 17.50
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 Sharks -3.00
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Chiefs 13.50
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 Reds 19.50
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 Stormers 1.00
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 Bulls 5.70

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.13 9.34 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 8.06 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 3.60 0.17 3.40
Northampton Saints 0.91 0.25 0.70
Gloucester 0.84 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.19 1.10 -0.90
Bristol -1.24 -2.77 1.50
Harlequins -2.20 -0.81 -1.40
Wasps -2.34 0.31 -2.70
Leicester Tigers -2.65 -1.76 -0.90
London Irish -4.11 -5.51 1.40
Worcester Warriors -4.97 -2.69 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 15 – 26 -1.70 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 15 – 29 8.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 18 – 9 3.50 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 14 – 20 8.20 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 36 – 22 10.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 21 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 Bath 6.90
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 Bristol 8.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 Exeter Chiefs 11.70
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 Gloucester -0.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 Sale Sharks 10.70
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 Saracens -8.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.23 12.20 4.00
Munster 8.93 10.73 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.08 9.66 -2.60
Edinburgh 5.28 1.24 4.00
Ulster 4.71 1.89 2.80
Scarlets 3.01 3.91 -0.90
Connacht 1.25 2.68 -1.40
Cheetahs -0.16 -3.38 3.20
Cardiff Blues -0.39 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Zebre -14.89 -16.93 2.00
Southern Kings -15.35 -14.70 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Feb 15 56 – 24 27.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 15 68 – 3 28.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Feb 16 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 16 9 – 14 5.10 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 26 – 24 -2.20 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 16 29 – 0 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 Leinster -13.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 Edinburgh 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 Munster -17.30
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 Glasgow Warriors 22.00
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 Ulster 11.40
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 Cardiff Blues 10.20
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 Scarlets 24.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

I missed posting predictions for this round thinking that there was a longer break between games. Because I use an algorithm and code and no subjective analysis, these predictions are exactly what I would have posted and I am posting them now for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -14.24 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings 45 – 0 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Glasgow Warriors 27.70
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Munster 28.50
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Leinster 22.60
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Scarlets 5.10
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Ulster -2.20
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Connacht 6.50

 

February 11, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.36 17.10 -1.70
Jaguares 7.64 7.23 0.40
Hurricanes 7.59 8.79 -1.20
Chiefs 7.56 5.91 1.70
Highlanders 2.44 4.53 -2.10
Stormers 1.97 -0.71 2.70
Sharks 1.73 -0.87 2.60
Brumbies 1.19 2.01 -0.80
Blues 0.99 -0.04 1.00
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.08 0.39 -1.50
Waratahs -3.42 -2.48 -0.90
Reds -4.88 -5.86 1.00
Rebels -8.64 -7.84 -0.80
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 20 – 42 10.90 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 39 – 26 14.60 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 25 – 15 -5.40 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 12 – 32 4.80 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 27 – 20 10.40 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 13 – 0 5.00 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 23 – 26 7.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 Crusaders -9.90
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 Waratahs -0.70
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 Chiefs -19.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 Hurricanes 11.90
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 Brumbies 4.80
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 Lions 1.50
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 Jaguares 18.50

 

February 4, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.42 17.10 -0.70
Jaguares 8.39 7.23 1.20
Hurricanes 6.84 8.79 -2.00
Chiefs 6.50 5.91 0.60
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 1.34 2.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.24 -0.71 1.90
Bulls 0.77 1.28 -0.50
Sharks -0.36 -0.87 0.50
Blues -0.63 -0.04 -0.60
Lions -0.77 0.39 -1.20
Waratahs -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Reds -5.19 -5.86 0.70
Rebels -8.79 -7.84 -0.90
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 29 – 37 -1.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 27 – 24 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 23 – 15 2.40 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 36 – 27 -4.60 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 43 – 25 25.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 27 – 0 -3.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 38 – 8 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 Highlanders 10.90
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 Brumbies 14.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 Crusaders -5.40
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 Waratahs 4.80
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 Lions 10.40
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 Stormers 5.00
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 Jaguares 7.50

 

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January 29, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 9 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.95 -3.38 2.40
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -13.32 -14.70 1.40
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 26 30 – 31 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 02 Cheetahs 17.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.84 9.34 0.50
Exeter Chiefs 7.53 7.99 -0.50
Sale Sharks 3.88 0.17 3.70
Northampton Saints 1.67 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.37 0.58 0.80
Bath 0.16 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -1.06 -0.81 -0.30
Bristol -2.00 -2.77 0.80
Wasps -2.00 0.31 -2.30
Leicester Tigers -2.99 -1.76 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -4.94 -2.69 -2.30
London Irish -5.24 -5.51 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 13 – 10 8.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 34 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 19 – 22 9.50 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 41 – 14 -9.80 FALSE
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 16 – 20 13.20 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 26 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 Exeter Chiefs -1.70
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 Harlequins 8.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 Leicester Tigers 3.50
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 Northampton Saints 8.20
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 Saracens 10.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 Bath -0.60

 

January 21, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.10 17.10 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.79 8.79 -0.00
Jaguares 7.23 7.23 0.00
Chiefs 5.91 5.91 0.00
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 2.01 2.01 -0.00
Bulls 1.28 1.28 0.00
Lions 0.39 0.39 -0.00
Blues -0.04 -0.04 -0.00
Stormers -0.71 -0.71 -0.00
Sharks -0.87 -0.87 -0.00
Waratahs -2.48 -2.48 -0.00
Reds -5.86 -5.86 0.00
Rebels -7.84 -7.84 0.00
Sunwolves -18.45 -18.45 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 Chiefs -1.40
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 Brumbies 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 Sharks 2.40
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 Rebels -4.60
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 Crusaders 25.60
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 Hurricanes -3.50
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 Jaguares 12.80

 

January 7, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.56 9.34 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 8.22 7.99 0.20
Sale Sharks 3.19 0.17 3.00
Northampton Saints 2.57 0.25 2.30
Gloucester 2.34 0.58 1.80
Bath 0.49 1.10 -0.60
Wasps -2.38 0.31 -2.70
Harlequins -2.78 -0.81 -2.00
Bristol -2.97 -2.77 -0.20
Leicester Tigers -3.32 -1.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -4.55 -2.69 -1.90
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 48 – 10 7.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 29 – 15 5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 31 – 18 3.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 62 – 5 16.90 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 28 – 45 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 31 – 35 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 Gloucester -0.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 9.50
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 Saracens -9.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 Northampton Saints 13.20
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 Worcester Warriors 2.30

 

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