Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

October 3, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 4

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Team Ratings 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.80 27.60 0.20
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.02 8.70 0.30
France 7.05 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -13.40 -11.89 -1.50
Georgia -16.37 -17.43 1.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -33.65 -35.67 2.00
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE

 

Predictions 4

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -7.80
2 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
3 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
4 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 42.70
5 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
6 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 12.90
7 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.40
8 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.10
9 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.10
10 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.20
11 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 41.10
12 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.30
13 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 25.40
14 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.50
15 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
16 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.00
17 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.40
18 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
19 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 46.30
20 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.00

 

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October 1, 2019

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.73 6.03 6.70
Roosters 12.42 8.72 3.70
Raiders 6.88 1.81 5.10
Rabbitohs 2.85 3.89 -1.00
Eels 2.80 -6.17 9.00
Sharks 1.81 3.90 -2.10
Sea Eagles 1.05 -5.61 6.70
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Broncos -5.53 2.63 -8.20
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Sep 27 16 – 10 7.20 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 28 14 – 6 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 06 Roosters 8.50

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.45 9.00 10.50
Canterbury 13.56 12.92 0.60
Wellington 9.86 10.92 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 7.15 -4.82 12.00
Auckland 6.24 11.57 -5.30
Waikato 3.15 8.24 -5.10
North Harbour 2.53 5.30 -2.80
Hawke’s Bay -2.07 -5.69 3.60
Otago -2.85 -1.49 -1.40
Taranaki -4.61 -5.22 0.60
Counties Manukau -7.99 -1.99 -6.00
Manawatu -12.16 -11.67 -0.50
Northland -12.98 -6.23 -6.70
Southland -20.54 -22.08 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 26 19 – 0 20.10 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 27 40 – 0 12.20 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 28 51 – 24 10.20 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Northland Sep 28 57 – 36 28.10 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 28 38 – 5 23.90 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 29 45 – 35 -4.60 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 29 16 – 29 -10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 Hawke’s Bay -1.90
2 North Harbour vs. Wellington Oct 04 Wellington -3.30
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 05 Bay of Plenty 23.30
4 Auckland vs. Southland Oct 05 Auckland 30.80
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 05 Canterbury -12.40
6 Tasman vs. Northland Oct 06 Tasman 36.40
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Waikato 11.80

 

September 29, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 3

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Team Ratings 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.68 27.60 0.10
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.62 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.06 8.70 0.40
France 7.02 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 3.88 5.44 -1.60
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -11.75 -11.89 0.10
USA -16.61 -16.38 -0.20
Georgia -17.32 -17.43 0.10
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -32.69 -35.67 3.00
Canada -34.06 -32.45 -1.60
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.
Here are the predictions for games played so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE

 

Predictions 3

Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 Georgia 15.40
2 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 Wales -3.60
3 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 Scotland 15.60
4 France vs. USA Oct 02 France 23.60
5 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 New Zealand 61.70
6 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -8.70
7 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
8 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
9 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 41.80
10 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
11 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 11.30
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.20
13 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.00
14 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.00
15 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.10
16 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 39.40
17 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.20
18 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 26.40
19 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.40
20 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
21 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 23.30
22 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.50
23 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
24 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.30
25 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -4.40

 

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September 24, 2019

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.17 6.03 7.10
Roosters 11.99 8.72 3.30
Raiders 6.97 1.81 5.20
Eels 2.80 -6.17 9.00
Rabbitohs 2.76 3.89 -1.10
Sharks 1.81 3.90 -2.10
Sea Eagles 1.05 -5.61 6.70
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Broncos -5.53 2.63 -8.20
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 20 34 – 26 4.20 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 21 32 – 0 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Sep 27 Raiders 7.20
2 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 28 Roosters 1.80

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.95 9.00 8.00
Canterbury 12.74 12.92 -0.20
Wellington 10.50 10.92 -0.40
Auckland 8.74 11.57 -2.80
Bay of Plenty 5.64 -4.82 10.50
Waikato 4.47 8.24 -3.80
North Harbour 2.28 5.30 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay -0.56 -5.69 5.10
Otago -4.16 -1.49 -2.70
Taranaki -4.51 -5.22 0.70
Counties Manukau -7.17 -1.99 -5.20
Manawatu -11.91 -11.67 -0.20
Northland -13.62 -6.23 -7.40
Southland -20.64 -22.08 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 19 29 – 32 35.60 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 35 – 17 5.70 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 21 26 – 35 -8.40 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 42 – 14 -17.70 FALSE
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 21 15 – 21 14.10 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 22 15 – 34 6.90 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 22 – 46 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 26 Taranaki 20.10
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 27 Tasman 12.20
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 10.20
4 Wellington vs. Northland Sep 28 Wellington 28.10
5 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 28 Canterbury 23.90
6 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 29 Waikato -4.60
7 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 29 North Harbour -10.20

 

Rugby World Cup Predictions 2

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I was hoping to be able to release predictions in batches of 8 matches, but some matches which could be predicted already would then not have a prediction. Instead I have decided to predict all future games, and update as required to ensure that before a team plays, my predictions will take into account all previous games.

Observe below that means for example that I will provide updated predictions before the Georgia vs. Uruguay game to take into account the game played by Uruguay against Fiji.

Team Ratings 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.68 27.60 0.10
England 19.04 19.78 -0.70
South Africa 18.42 18.51 -0.10
Ireland 13.68 12.12 1.60
Wales 12.62 12.72 -0.10
Australia 9.06 8.70 0.40
France 7.02 7.11 -0.10
Argentina 4.23 4.15 0.10
Scotland 3.88 5.44 -1.60
Fiji -5.64 -5.27 -0.40
Japan -9.08 -7.67 -1.40
Italy -9.31 -8.57 -0.70
Samoa -11.89 -11.89 -0.00
USA -16.38 -16.38 -0.00
Georgia -17.32 -17.43 0.10
Tonga -19.72 -20.46 0.70
Canada -32.45 -32.45 0.00
Russia -35.38 -36.78 1.40
Uruguay -35.67 -35.67 -0.00
Namibia -41.06 -41.80 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for the previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE

 

Predictions 2

Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 Samoa -23.50
2 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 Fiji 30.00
3 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 Italy 23.10
4 England vs. USA Sep 26 England 35.40
5 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 Argentina 24.00
6 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 Ireland -16.30
7 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 South Africa 59.50
8 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 Georgia 18.30
9 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 Wales -3.60
10 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 Scotland 15.80
11 France vs. USA Oct 02 France 23.40
12 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 New Zealand 60.10
13 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -11.70
14 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 49.10
15 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 27.70
16 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 44.70
17 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 14.80
18 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 9.30
19 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.70
20 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.70
21 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 50.90
22 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.60
23 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 39.30
24 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 18.30
25 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 26.40
26 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 37.00
27 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.00
28 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.60
29 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -8.60
30 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 3.30
31 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 48.30
32 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.50

 

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September 17, 2019

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.99 8.72 3.30
Storm 11.65 6.03 5.60
Raiders 6.97 1.81 5.20
Eels 4.32 -6.17 10.50
Rabbitohs 2.49 3.89 -1.40
Sharks 1.81 3.90 -2.10
Sea Eagles 1.32 -5.61 6.90
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Broncos -5.53 2.63 -8.20
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 30 – 6 10.60 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 14 10 – 12 9.30 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 14 28 – 16 1.00 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 15 58 – 0 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 20 Rabbitohs 4.20
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 21 Storm 10.30

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.89 9.00 7.90
Canterbury 16.22 12.92 3.30
Auckland 11.07 11.57 -0.50
Wellington 8.17 10.92 -2.70
Bay of Plenty 4.68 -4.82 9.50
Waikato 4.53 8.24 -3.70
North Harbour 4.09 5.30 -1.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.66 -5.69 4.00
Counties Manukau -3.06 -1.99 -1.10
Taranaki -3.40 -5.22 1.80
Otago -5.97 -1.49 -4.50
Northland -12.66 -6.23 -6.40
Manawatu -15.38 -11.67 -3.70
Southland -24.75 -22.08 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 12 24 – 27 13.10 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 12 – 42 -23.80 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 14 17 – 31 -1.90 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 26 – 31 -5.50 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Sep 14 13 – 28 -9.10 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 15 54 – 24 15.50 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 15 21 – 17 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 19 Canterbury 35.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 5.70
3 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 21 Tasman -8.40
4 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 Counties Manukau -17.70
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 21 North Harbour 14.10
6 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 22 Auckland 6.90
7 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 Bay of Plenty -13.30

 

September 13, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.60 27.60 -0.00
England 19.78 19.78 0.00
South Africa 18.51 18.51 0.00
Wales 12.72 12.72 0.00
Ireland 12.12 12.12 -0.00
Australia 8.70 8.70 -0.00
France 7.11 7.11 0.00
Scotland 5.44 5.44 -0.00
Argentina 4.15 4.15 0.00
Fiji -5.27 -5.27 0.00
Japan -7.67 -7.67 0.00
Italy -8.57 -8.57 -0.00
Samoa -11.89 -11.89 -0.00
USA -16.38 -16.38 -0.00
Georgia -17.43 -17.43 -0.00
Tonga -20.46 -20.46 -0.00
Canada -32.45 -32.45 0.00
Uruguay -35.67 -35.67 -0.00
Russia -36.78 -36.78 0.00
Namibia -41.80 -41.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 Japan 35.60
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 Australia 14.00
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 France 3.00
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 New Zealand 9.10
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 Italy 33.20
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 Ireland 6.70
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 England 40.20
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 Wales 30.10

 

Publication Schedule

I aim to publish RWC predictions on a schedule which ensures that team ratings have been calculated using all prior results. With 5 teams per pool and 4 pools, only 8 games can be played without the necessity for a team to play twice and that is how the pool games schedule appears to have been arranged. I thus intend to publish new predictions after each group of 8 games. There may be some variations in when I publish because I am currently on a cycling holiday in Europe.

For the NRL and Mitre 10 Cup predictions, I aim to publish on a Tuesday each week as usual.

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