Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

May 21, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.07 8.72 1.40
Storm 8.71 6.03 2.70
Rabbitohs 7.31 3.89 3.40
Raiders 3.62 1.81 1.80
Broncos 1.67 2.63 -1.00
Sharks 0.23 3.90 -3.70
Warriors -1.15 -0.27 -0.90
Sea Eagles -1.24 -5.61 4.40
Knights -1.54 -8.51 7.00
Wests Tigers -2.55 -5.57 3.00
Cowboys -2.60 0.15 -2.80
Dragons -3.49 0.06 -3.50
Eels -4.06 -6.17 2.10
Bulldogs -4.31 -0.61 -3.70
Titans -5.93 -3.36 -2.60
Panthers -6.74 0.93 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 24 – 22 16.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 10 – 30 2.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 15 – 10 -7.10 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 16 – 22 2.60 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 17 – 10 4.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 12 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 12 – 45 6.60 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 14 – 24 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers May 23 Eels 5.70
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 24 Sea Eagles 7.70
3 Knights vs. Roosters May 24 Roosters -8.60
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 Raiders 9.20
5 Warriors vs. Broncos May 25 Warriors 1.70
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 25 Rabbitohs 12.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 26 Storm -10.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks May 26 Sharks -0.70

 

May 15, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Round 9 games all being played in Brisbane caused problems for me again. I had changed the order of the teams for the Sea Eagles versus Broncos game to give them home ground advantage which then impacted my routines for webscraping results and adding them to my database. I thought I had corrected the resulting errors but missed one. Since that affected the updated ratings and the predictions for Round 10, I have updated the whole post.

Thanks to Chad James for advising me of the error.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Knights -4.31 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -4.91 -0.61 -4.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 10 – 22 1.30 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -3.60 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 2.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 6.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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May 14, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.86 17.67 0.20
Hurricanes 8.33 9.43 -1.10
Highlanders 4.68 4.01 0.70
Chiefs 2.83 8.56 -5.70
Lions 1.75 8.28 -6.50
Jaguares 1.48 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Waratahs -0.15 2.00 -2.20
Stormers -0.45 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -1.56 -3.79 2.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.11 -7.26 4.10
Reds -5.54 -8.19 2.60
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 10 12 – 22 -6.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds May 10 30 – 24 5.90 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Crusaders May 10 13 – 45 -13.20 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Jaguares May 11 32 – 27 7.50 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Sharks May 11 29 – 23 5.40 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Waratahs May 11 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 12 33 – 0 18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 Hurricanes 10.80
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 Chiefs -1.20
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 Rebels 2.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 Waratahs -1.90
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 Lions 1.10
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 Crusaders -14.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Bulldogs -2.95 -0.61 -2.30
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00
Knights -6.27 -8.51 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 32 – 16 1.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -5.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 0.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 8.50
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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May 9, 2019

Updated NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

This is an unusual round in that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium which is the home ground of the Brisbane Broncos. Hence they have been assigned home ground advantage. All other games are treated as being played at a neutral ground. The exception is the Warriors versus the Dragons where I have penalised the Warriors because they are playing overseas.

Thanks to Ben Frank for alerting me to this unusual situation.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.00 8.72 2.30
Rabbitohs 6.54 3.89 2.70
Storm 6.42 6.03 0.40
Raiders 3.81 1.81 2.00
Sharks 1.30 3.90 -2.60
Dragons 0.09 0.06 0.00
Broncos 0.03 2.63 -2.60
Eels -0.56 -6.17 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.62 -5.61 4.00
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Panthers -3.21 0.93 -4.10
Warriors -3.50 -0.27 -3.20
Bulldogs -3.98 -0.61 -3.40
Titans -5.22 -3.36 -1.90
Knights -5.24 -8.51 3.30
Wests Tigers -5.53 -5.57 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 28 – 14 4.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 20 – 18 -2.80 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 30 – 12 8.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 10 4.90 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 42 – 12 17.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 18 – 36 10.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 32 – 18 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -6.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 Panthers -2.30
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 Broncos 4.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 Bulldogs 1.30
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 Dragons -5.10
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 Storm 7.00
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 Roosters 7.20
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 Rabbitohs 8.80

 

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May 7, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.73 17.67 -0.90
Hurricanes 8.10 9.43 -1.30
Highlanders 4.83 4.01 0.80
Chiefs 2.79 8.56 -5.80
Lions 2.08 8.28 -6.20
Sharks 1.44 0.45 1.00
Jaguares 1.33 -0.26 1.60
Brumbies -0.21 0.00 -0.20
Bulls -0.43 -3.79 3.40
Stormers -0.45 -0.39 -0.10
Waratahs -0.49 2.00 -2.50
Blues -1.65 -3.42 1.80
Rebels -3.12 -7.26 4.10
Reds -5.53 -8.19 2.70
Sunwolves -14.43 -16.08 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 03 21 – 21 21.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 03 32 – 26 13.80 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 04 29 – 19 15.90 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 04 31 – 31 6.30 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 04 26 – 21 5.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Waratahs May 04 28 – 21 3.70 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers May 04 30 – 25 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 10 Hurricanes -6.20
2 Rebels vs. Reds May 10 Rebels 5.90
3 Bulls vs. Crusaders May 10 Crusaders -13.20
4 Highlanders vs. Jaguares May 11 Highlanders 7.50
5 Chiefs vs. Sharks May 11 Chiefs 5.40
6 Lions vs. Waratahs May 11 Lions 6.60
7 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 12 Brumbies 18.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.03 11.19 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs 9.05 11.13 -2.10
Northampton Saints 5.44 3.42 2.00
Gloucester Rugby 4.01 1.23 2.80
Bath Rugby 3.18 3.11 0.10
Wasps 2.08 8.30 -6.20
Harlequins 2.07 2.05 0.00
Sale Sharks 1.37 -0.81 2.20
Leicester Tigers -0.03 6.26 -6.30
Worcester Warriors -1.76 -5.18 3.40
Bristol -1.85 -5.60 3.80
Newcastle Falcons -3.00 -3.51 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Wasps May 04 29 – 17 5.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks May 04 20 – 20 2.80 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons May 04 28 – 19 13.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers May 04 23 – 19 8.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 04 38 – 10 11.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs May 04 38 – 7 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 18 Exeter Chiefs 9.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Rugby May 18 Leicester Tigers 2.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol May 18 Newcastle Falcons 4.40
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Rugby May 18 Sale Sharks 2.90
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins May 18 Wasps 5.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 18 Saracens -7.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.00 8.72 2.30
Rabbitohs 6.54 3.89 2.70
Storm 6.42 6.03 0.40
Raiders 3.81 1.81 2.00
Sharks 1.30 3.90 -2.60
Dragons 0.09 0.06 0.00
Broncos 0.03 2.63 -2.60
Eels -0.56 -6.17 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.62 -5.61 4.00
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Panthers -3.21 0.93 -4.10
Warriors -3.50 -0.27 -3.20
Bulldogs -3.98 -0.61 -3.40
Titans -5.22 -3.36 -1.90
Knights -5.24 -8.51 3.30
Wests Tigers -5.53 -5.57 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 28 – 14 4.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 20 – 18 -2.80 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 30 – 12 8.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 10 4.90 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 42 – 12 17.80 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 18 – 36 10.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 32 – 18 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -3.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 Wests Tigers 0.70
3 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 10 Sea Eagles 1.40
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 Bulldogs 4.30
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 Warriors 0.90
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 Storm 10.00
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 Roosters 10.20
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 Rabbitohs 11.80

 

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Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 9.89 8.08 1.80
Leinster 9.40 9.80 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 9.16 8.55 0.60
Connacht 2.67 0.01 2.70
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 2.43 2.07 0.40
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso 0.21 -5.19 5.40
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 149 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Treviso May 05 15 – 13 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Connacht May 05 21 – 13 3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster May 18 Glasgow Warriors 11.20
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 19 Leinster 4.00

 

April 30, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.04 17.67 0.40
Hurricanes 8.46 9.43 -1.00
Highlanders 5.20 4.01 1.20
Chiefs 2.41 8.56 -6.10
Lions 2.08 8.28 -6.20
Jaguares 1.39 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 0.12 0.45 -0.30
Brumbies -0.18 0.00 -0.20
Waratahs -0.29 2.00 -2.30
Stormers -0.50 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -0.63 -3.79 3.20
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -14.90 -16.08 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 36 – 10 19.10 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 0 – 52 -11.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 47 – 19 7.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 15 – 23 5.20 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 24 – 23 4.00 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 20 – 15 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 03 Crusaders 21.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 03 Reds 13.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 04 Hurricanes 15.90
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 04 Highlanders 6.30
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 04 Brumbies 5.50
6 Bulls vs. Waratahs May 04 Bulls 3.70
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers May 04 Jaguares 5.90

 

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