Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

September 3, 2019

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.19 9.00 7.20
Canterbury 14.68 12.92 1.80
Auckland 11.51 11.57 -0.10
Wellington 6.67 10.92 -4.20
Waikato 6.12 8.24 -2.10
Bay of Plenty 3.78 -4.82 8.60
North Harbour 2.54 5.30 -2.80
Counties Manukau -0.42 -1.99 1.60
Taranaki -1.62 -5.22 3.60
Hawke’s Bay -2.27 -5.69 3.40
Otago -5.36 -1.49 -3.90
Northland -11.52 -6.23 -5.30
Manawatu -15.92 -11.67 -4.30
Southland -25.64 -22.08 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 29 29 – 22 12.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Manawatu Aug 30 37 – 20 14.00 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Aug 31 80 – 0 36.50 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 31 28 – 43 -3.10 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 20 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 01 19 – 27 5.10 FALSE
7 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 01 18 – 28 -14.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 05 Northland -0.40
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Sep 06 Hawke’s Bay 27.40
3 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 06 Tasman -12.60
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 07 North Harbour 0.40
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 07 Bay of Plenty 1.10
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 08 Auckland 0.80
7 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 08 Otago 0.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.90 7.88 -1.00
Sharks 4.93 5.56 -0.60
Cheetahs 4.47 2.68 1.80
Lions 2.92 3.35 -0.40
Blue Bulls -1.13 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.55 -10.73 2.20
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sep 01 51 – 30 15.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 01 34 – 19 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 08 Cheetahs 6.10

 

August 27, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.08 8.72 3.40
Storm 11.64 6.03 5.60
Raiders 8.01 1.81 6.20
Sea Eagles 3.32 -5.61 8.90
Rabbitohs 1.25 3.89 -2.60
Sharks 0.96 3.90 -2.90
Eels -0.54 -6.17 5.60
Broncos -0.61 2.63 -3.20
Wests Tigers -0.68 -5.57 4.90
Panthers -3.16 0.93 -4.10
Bulldogs -3.20 -0.61 -2.60
Dragons -4.58 0.06 -4.60
Knights -4.80 -8.51 3.70
Cowboys -5.31 0.15 -5.50
Warriors -5.47 -0.27 -5.20
Titans -10.91 -3.36 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 6 – 12 7.60 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Aug 23 24 – 10 -1.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 23 20 – 22 1.70 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 24 42 – 16 8.50 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 24 46 – 4 1.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 24 12 – 34 -12.30 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Titans Aug 25 24 – 8 27.10 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 14 – 18 9.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 Cowboys 0.90
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Rabbitohs -2.20
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 30 Broncos 2.90
4 Knights vs. Titans Aug 31 Knights 9.10
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 Storm -5.30
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 31 Roosters 18.20
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 01 Raiders -4.00
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 Wests Tigers -0.90

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 16.61 9.00 7.60
Auckland 11.67 11.57 0.10
Canterbury 10.77 12.92 -2.10
Wellington 7.12 10.92 -3.80
Waikato 5.97 8.24 -2.30
North Harbour 3.72 5.30 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 2.60 -4.82 7.40
Counties Manukau -0.87 -1.99 1.10
Taranaki -2.04 -5.22 3.20
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 -5.69 2.30
Otago -5.63 -1.49 -4.10
Northland -10.45 -6.23 -4.20
Manawatu -15.65 -11.67 -4.00
Southland -21.72 -22.08 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 22 29 – 21 5.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Aug 23 23 – 22 0.20 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 24 19 – 13 14.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 24 64 – 3 30.80 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 24 26 – 31 -2.40 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 25 52 – 19 7.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 25 12 – 33 -21.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 29 Wellington 12.00
2 Otago vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Otago 14.00
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Aug 31 Canterbury 36.50
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 31 Hawke’s Bay -3.10
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Auckland -1.70
6 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 01 North Harbour 5.10
7 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 01 Tasman -14.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.90 7.88 -1.00
Sharks 5.38 5.56 -0.20
Cheetahs 4.02 2.68 1.30
Lions 2.44 3.35 -0.90
Blue Bulls -1.13 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.07 -10.73 2.70
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 26 – 27 -7.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 38 – 33 1.00 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 40 – 48 -0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sep 01 Lions 15.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 01 Cheetahs 3.10

 

August 20, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.41 6.03 6.40
Roosters 11.40 8.72 2.70
Raiders 8.96 1.81 7.20
Sea Eagles 2.37 -5.61 8.00
Rabbitohs 1.00 3.89 -2.90
Eels 0.41 -6.17 6.60
Sharks -0.26 3.90 -4.20
Broncos -0.35 2.63 -3.00
Knights -1.96 -8.51 6.50
Panthers -2.09 0.93 -3.00
Wests Tigers -3.52 -5.57 2.00
Dragons -3.90 0.06 -4.00
Bulldogs -4.15 -0.61 -3.50
Warriors -4.24 -0.27 -4.00
Cowboys -6.38 0.15 -6.50
Titans -11.69 -3.36 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Aug 15 32 – 12 7.10 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Eels Aug 16 12 – 36 -6.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 16 24 – 12 3.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 17 42 – 6 2.80 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 17 18 – 22 8.20 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 6 – 14 10.80 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Aug 18 42 – 6 17.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 18 18 – 12 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 Eels 7.60
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Aug 23 Panthers -1.30
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 23 Broncos 1.70
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 24 Sharks 8.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 24 Wests Tigers 1.40
6 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 24 Roosters -12.30
7 Storm vs. Titans Aug 25 Storm 27.10
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 Raiders 9.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.89 9.00 4.90
Auckland 12.44 11.57 0.90
Canterbury 10.84 12.92 -2.10
Wellington 7.05 10.92 -3.90
Waikato 5.73 8.24 -2.50
North Harbour 3.77 5.30 -1.50
Bay of Plenty 1.83 -4.82 6.70
Counties Manukau -0.63 -1.99 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.52 -5.69 2.20
Taranaki -4.30 -5.22 0.90
Otago -5.44 -1.49 -4.00
Northland -8.19 -6.23 -2.00
Manawatu -12.93 -11.67 -1.30
Southland -21.77 -22.08 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 10 – 43 -13.00 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 25 – 39 13.30 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 27 – 27 -8.00 FALSE
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 10 – 13 -5.00 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 41 – 22 20.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 8 – 23 4.40 FALSE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 40 – 14 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 5.90
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Aug 23 Wellington 0.20
3 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 24 Auckland 14.60
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 24 Tasman 30.80
5 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 24 Waikato -2.40
6 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 25 Taranaki 7.90
7 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 25 North Harbour -21.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.22 7.88 -0.70
Sharks 4.81 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 3.70 2.68 1.00
Lions 2.92 3.35 -0.40
Blue Bulls -0.56 0.30 -0.90
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.55 -10.73 2.20
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 17 27 – 23 -12.40 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 18 37 – 46 -6.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 19 28 – 30 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 Lions -7.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 Cheetahs 1.00
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -0.90

 

August 13, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.26 6.03 7.20
Roosters 10.11 8.72 1.40
Raiders 8.11 1.81 6.30
Rabbitohs 2.31 3.89 -1.60
Sea Eagles 1.47 -5.61 7.10
Sharks -0.21 3.90 -4.10
Eels -0.81 -6.17 5.40
Broncos -0.94 2.63 -3.60
Panthers -1.49 0.93 -2.40
Wests Tigers -2.61 -5.57 3.00
Warriors -2.95 -0.27 -2.70
Dragons -3.95 0.06 -4.00
Cowboys -4.05 0.15 -4.20
Knights -4.28 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -5.47 -0.61 -4.90
Titans -10.47 -3.36 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 14 – 18 0.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 09 24 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 09 26 – 20 1.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 10 40 – 28 9.10 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Knights Aug 10 20 – 14 6.60 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 18 – 16 -0.20 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 11 18 – 22 1.80 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 11 16 – 26 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Aug 15 Sea Eagles 7.10
2 Titans vs. Eels Aug 16 Eels -6.70
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 16 Broncos 3.50
4 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 17 Knights 2.80
5 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 17 Storm 8.20
6 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 Rabbitohs 10.80
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Aug 18 Roosters 17.60
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 18 Sharks 6.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.59 12.92 -0.30
Tasman 12.14 9.00 3.10
Auckland 10.64 11.57 -0.90
Waikato 8.57 8.24 0.30
Wellington 7.78 10.92 -3.10
North Harbour 6.23 5.30 0.90
Bay of Plenty -1.01 -4.82 3.80
Counties Manukau -3.09 -1.99 -1.10
Taranaki -4.12 -5.22 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.25 -5.69 1.40
Otago -5.30 -1.49 -3.80
Northland -6.40 -6.23 -0.20
Manawatu -13.11 -11.67 -1.40
Southland -21.92 -22.08 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 17 – 27 -11.90 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 28 – 28 10.30 FALSE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 45 – 8 2.10 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 29 – 34 7.20 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 31 – 28 -0.70 FALSE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 50 – 7 0.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 13 – 31 -2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 Auckland -13.00
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 North Harbour 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 Wellington -8.00
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 Taranaki -5.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 Otago 20.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 Canterbury 4.40
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 Waikato -5.60

 

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