Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

April 9, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.56 11.13 0.40
Saracens 9.73 11.19 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 5.23 1.23 4.00
Northampton Saints 3.62 3.42 0.20
Wasps 2.51 8.30 -5.80
Harlequins 2.35 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 2.11 -0.81 2.90
Bath Rugby 2.05 3.11 -1.10
Leicester Tigers -0.34 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -2.31 -5.18 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -2.33 -3.51 1.20
Bristol -2.59 -5.60 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Bristol Apr 06 26 – 19 10.80 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 06 20 – 52 -4.20 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 06 31 – 40 5.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 06 28 – 17 4.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 06 26 – 12 18.30 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 06 28 – 16 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 Saracens -6.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 Exeter Chiefs 14.60
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 Gloucester Rugby 8.70
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 Harlequins 4.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 Newcastle Falcons 3.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Worcester Warriors 1.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.53 9.80 0.70
Munster 10.10 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.40 8.55 0.90
Connacht 3.11 0.01 3.10
Scarlets 2.36 6.39 -4.00
Edinburgh 1.13 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.86 0.24 0.60
Ulster 0.77 2.07 -1.30
Ospreys -0.15 -0.86 0.70
Treviso -0.46 -5.19 4.70
Cheetahs -2.81 -0.83 -2.00
Dragons -9.47 -8.59 -0.90
Southern Kings -10.79 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -14.04 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 14 – 31 3.40 FALSE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 30 – 7 12.20 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 27 – 27 16.80 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 45 – 21 12.80 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 12 – 20 6.90 FALSE
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 18 – 18 3.80 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 5 – 6 -13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 Cheetahs 11.20
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 Connacht 6.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 Edinburgh 4.90
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 Leinster 5.60
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 Scarlets 20.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 Ospreys -6.10
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 Munster -6.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.41 8.72 0.70
Storm 7.98 6.03 1.90
Rabbitohs 5.13 3.89 1.20
Sharks 3.65 3.90 -0.30
Raiders 3.10 1.81 1.30
Broncos 1.08 2.63 -1.50
Dragons -1.02 0.06 -1.10
Warriors -2.12 -0.27 -1.80
Bulldogs -2.20 -0.61 -1.60
Eels -2.37 -6.17 3.80
Panthers -2.53 0.93 -3.50
Sea Eagles -3.19 -5.61 2.40
Cowboys -3.23 0.15 -3.40
Wests Tigers -3.74 -5.57 1.80
Titans -5.19 -3.36 -1.80
Knights -6.75 -8.51 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 36 – 4 8.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 26 – 10 6.20 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 9 – 8 4.70 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 13 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 12 – 30 -0.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 24 – 12 -5.50 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 18 – 16 15.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 12 – 13 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 Broncos 7.80
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 Titans 0.30
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 Storm -8.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 Rabbitohs 11.80
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 Sea Eagles -0.60
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 Roosters -2.80
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Dragons 4.20
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 Raiders 8.50

 

April 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.15 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.75 9.43 -1.70
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 0.91 2.00 -1.10
Sharks 0.17 0.45 -0.30
Stormers -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Bulls -0.80 -3.79 3.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Jaguares -1.50 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.46 -7.26 3.80
Reds -6.59 -8.19 1.60
Sunwolves -12.25 -16.08 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 8 – 32 -3.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 29 – 31 19.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 24 – 9 0.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 13 – 32 3.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 16 – 19 5.50 FALSE
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 27 – 30 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Hurricanes -1.20
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 Stormers -2.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 Lions 8.40
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Crusaders 22.40
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Blues 1.20
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 Rebels 12.80
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 Bulls 4.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.89 6.03 2.90
Roosters 7.73 8.72 -1.00
Rabbitohs 5.65 3.89 1.80
Sharks 4.87 3.90 1.00
Broncos 2.76 2.63 0.10
Raiders 1.91 1.81 0.10
Dragons -0.88 0.06 -0.90
Cowboys -2.03 0.15 -2.20
Panthers -2.26 0.93 -3.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.27 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.11 -0.61 -2.50
Eels -3.60 -6.17 2.60
Sea Eagles -3.70 -5.61 1.90
Wests Tigers -4.01 -5.57 1.60
Titans -4.50 -3.36 -1.10
Knights -6.89 -8.51 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 28 24 – 25 7.90 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 29 17 – 10 12.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Mar 29 18 – 32 -7.40 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Mar 30 46 – 12 -1.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 30 16 – 42 -0.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 30 2 – 32 -4.60 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 31 8 – 22 4.70 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Mar 31 28 – 20 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 Roosters 8.00
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 Warriors 6.20
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Panthers 4.70
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 Rabbitohs -6.30
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 Raiders -0.90
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 Sharks -5.50
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 Storm 15.00
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 Dragons -3.00

 

March 26, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.92 17.67 -1.70
Hurricanes 8.98 9.43 -0.40
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.75 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 2.22 2.00 0.20
Sharks 0.68 0.45 0.20
Stormers 0.64 -0.39 1.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Bulls -1.31 -3.79 2.50
Jaguares -1.45 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -2.73 -3.42 0.70
Rebels -4.78 -7.26 2.50
Reds -5.27 -8.19 2.90
Sunwolves -13.56 -16.08 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 22 33 – 26 -3.60 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Mar 23 34 – 28 13.20 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Mar 23 20 – 12 -12.10 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Mar 23 24 – 37 -14.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 23 20 – 56 2.60 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 28 – 14 8.80 TRUE
7 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 24 36 – 14 -3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 Crusaders -3.40
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 Waratahs 19.80
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 Blues 0.60
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 Reds 3.00
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 Sharks 5.50
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 Chiefs -2.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.47 11.13 -0.70
Saracens 10.12 11.19 -1.10
Gloucester Rugby 4.57 1.23 3.30
Northampton Saints 4.28 3.42 0.90
Harlequins 2.98 2.05 0.90
Bath Rugby 2.40 3.11 -0.70
Wasps 2.33 8.30 -6.00
Sale Sharks 1.48 -0.81 2.30
Leicester Tigers 0.74 6.26 -5.50
Worcester Warriors -2.13 -5.18 3.00
Newcastle Falcons -2.72 -3.51 0.80
Bristol -2.94 -5.60 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 23 25 – 27 5.50 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby Mar 23 29 – 10 12.40 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps Mar 23 27 – 14 6.60 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 15 – 29 3.50 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 23 22 – 17 0.50 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 27 – 20 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Bristol Apr 06 Bath Rugby 10.80
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 06 Exeter Chiefs -4.20
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 06 Northampton Saints 5.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 06 Sale Sharks 4.00
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 06 Saracens 18.30
6 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 06 Wasps 10.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.20 9.80 1.40
Munster 9.61 8.08 1.50
Glasgow Warriors 8.92 8.55 0.40
Connacht 3.65 0.01 3.60
Scarlets 2.96 6.39 -3.40
Cardiff Blues 1.35 0.24 1.10
Ulster 1.24 2.07 -0.80
Edinburgh 0.53 -0.64 1.20
Ospreys -0.92 -0.86 -0.10
Treviso -1.12 -5.19 4.10
Cheetahs -2.04 -0.83 -1.20
Dragons -9.77 -8.59 -1.20
Southern Kings -10.49 -7.91 -2.60
Zebre -14.58 -10.57 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Mar 23 41 – 17 1.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Mar 23 29 – 14 8.20 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 23 28 – 11 -8.00 FALSE
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 35 – 17 15.00 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 23 31 – 12 29.60 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 23 29 – 20 14.20 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Southern Kings Mar 23 33 – 19 16.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 Cheetahs 3.40
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 Glasgow Warriors 12.20
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 Leinster 16.80
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 Munster 12.80
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 Scarlets 6.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 Southern Kings 3.80
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 Connacht -13.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.27 8.72 -1.40
Storm 7.11 6.03 1.10
Rabbitohs 6.07 3.89 2.20
Broncos 3.38 2.63 0.80
Sharks 3.07 3.90 -0.80
Raiders 2.30 1.81 0.50
Cowboys -0.23 0.15 -0.40
Warriors -0.34 -0.27 -0.10
Panthers -0.49 0.93 -1.40
Dragons -1.50 0.06 -1.60
Wests Tigers -2.69 -5.57 2.90
Eels -3.14 -6.17 3.00
Bulldogs -4.42 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.92 -3.36 -1.60
Sea Eagles -6.18 -5.61 -0.60
Knights -7.28 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 21 18 – 34 -2.70 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 22 10 – 22 -0.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 22 29 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 23 20 – 6 10.50 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 23 14 – 16 -4.10 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 23 18 – 26 -10.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 24 16 – 36 5.30 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 24 34 – 6 -2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 28 Broncos 7.90
2 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 29 Raiders 12.60
3 Eels vs. Roosters Mar 29 Roosters -7.40
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -1.30
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 30 Sharks -0.30
6 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 30 Storm -4.60
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 31 Wests Tigers 4.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Mar 31 Rabbitohs 14.00

 

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March 19, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.13 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 9.41 9.43 -0.00
Lions 5.21 8.28 -3.10
Highlanders 3.73 4.01 -0.30
Chiefs 2.44 8.56 -6.10
Bulls 1.01 -3.79 4.80
Waratahs 1.01 2.00 -1.00
Sharks 0.37 0.45 -0.10
Brumbies 0.25 0.00 0.20
Stormers 0.21 -0.39 0.60
Jaguares -1.45 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -3.37 -3.42 0.10
Rebels -4.47 -7.26 2.80
Reds -6.80 -8.19 1.40
Sunwolves -13.67 -16.08 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 23 – 23 -4.00 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 19 – 13 2.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 15 35 – 8 2.70 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Reds Mar 16 31 – 34 -2.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Rebels Mar 16 36 – 33 15.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 22 Highlanders -3.60
2 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Mar 23 Hurricanes 13.20
3 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Mar 23 Crusaders -12.10
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Mar 23 Lions -14.90
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 23 Bulls 2.60
6 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 Sharks 8.80
7 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 24 Brumbies -3.50

 

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