Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

May 8, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.67 9.03 -2.40
Bulls 5.83 2.55 3.30
Chiefs 5.02 6.98 -2.00
Stormers 3.98 3.34 0.60
Brumbies 3.64 -1.06 4.70
Sharks 3.16 4.57 -1.40
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Waratahs -0.11 -4.10 4.00
Reds -0.27 0.46 -0.70
Cheetahs -1.12 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.39 4.40 -6.80
Highlanders -5.41 -3.41 -2.00
Force -9.35 -9.73 0.40
Rebels -11.03 -10.64 -0.40
Kings -15.51 -10.00 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Stormers May 03 18 – 17 2.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 03 33 – 39 -13.20 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 04 25 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
4 Force vs. Reds May 04 11 – 11 -7.80 FALSE
5 Kings vs. Waratahs May 04 10 – 72 -1.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 04 48 – 14 8.10 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 05 23 – 30 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Force May 10 Chiefs 18.40
2 Reds vs. Sharks May 10 Reds 0.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Hurricanes May 10 Cheetahs 5.30
4 Blues vs. Rebels May 11 Blues 17.10
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers May 11 Stormers -0.10
6 Kings vs. Highlanders May 11 Highlanders -6.10

 

May 6, 2013

Frontiers in pie-charts

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The `pie’ in pie-chart is a metaphor — the charts are divided into slices in the way that certain kinds of pie are, and the slices add up to the whole pie.

Or, at least, that’s usually the idea.  One of StatChats’s foreign correspondents sent in this effort from the BBC

piefail

 

This kind of pie doesn’t get divided into slices — it would just fall apart.  And in this graph the slices don’t add up to anything meaningful — for those of you not up on the British sports scene: there are actually more than ten football clubs.  In the graphic we have Premier League teams such as Arsenal and Manchester City mixed in with  Albion Rovers and Brechin City from the Scottish 2nd division.

The pie price pie exemplifies a general rule, if you have to write all the data values on your graph, the graph isn’t doing its share of the work.

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May 1, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.98 9.73 0.30
Sea Eagles 7.25 4.78 2.50
Rabbitohs 6.69 5.23 1.50
Knights 4.55 0.44 4.10
Cowboys 4.21 7.05 -2.80
Roosters 4.16 -5.68 9.80
Broncos 2.76 -1.55 4.30
Bulldogs 1.61 7.33 -5.70
Dragons -2.78 -0.33 -2.50
Titans -2.90 -1.85 -1.00
Sharks -4.18 -1.78 -2.40
Panthers -4.77 -6.58 1.80
Raiders -4.81 2.03 -6.80
Wests Tigers -5.67 -3.71 -2.00
Warriors -8.31 -10.01 1.70
Eels -11.53 -8.82 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.07%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 34 – 10 8.30 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 28 – 18 25.99 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 12 – 20 8.33 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 27 30 – 12 12.40 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 10 – 20 -2.42 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 28 6 – 30 2.32 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 28 8 – 24 2.38 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Eels Apr 29 42 – 12 6.57 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs May 03 Broncos 0.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 03 Bulldogs 11.80
3 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 Storm 19.30
4 Eels vs. Cowboys May 04 Cowboys -11.20
5 Warriors vs. Titans May 05 Titans -0.90
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 05 Knights 13.20
7 Roosters vs. Panthers May 05 Roosters 13.40
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles May 06 Sea Eagles -5.50

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 5.91 9.03 -3.10
Chiefs 5.59 6.98 -1.40
Brumbies 4.40 -1.06 5.50
Sharks 3.88 4.57 -0.70
Stormers 3.87 3.34 0.50
Bulls 3.76 2.55 1.20
Blues 2.19 -3.02 5.20
Reds 0.36 0.46 -0.10
Hurricanes -0.31 4.40 -4.70
Cheetahs -1.12 -4.16 3.00
Waratahs -4.93 -4.10 -0.80
Highlanders -6.13 -3.41 -2.70
Force -9.97 -9.73 -0.20
Kings -10.69 -10.00 -0.70
Rebels -11.60 -10.64 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 26 16 – 18 0.20 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 26 12 – 11 2.40 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 27 37 – 29 5.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Force Apr 27 41 – 7 13.60 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Waratahs Apr 27 30 – 19 13.00 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings Apr 27 26 – 12 11.70 TRUE
7 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 28 30 – 26 24.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Stormers May 03 Blues 2.30
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 03 Chiefs -13.20
3 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 04 Sharks -6.00
4 Force vs. Reds May 04 Reds -7.80
5 Kings vs. Waratahs May 04 Waratahs -1.80
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 04 Bulls 8.10
7 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 05 Brumbies 2.50

 

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April 24, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.58 9.73 1.90
Sea Eagles 8.88 4.78 4.10
Rabbitohs 5.06 5.23 -0.20
Cowboys 3.66 7.05 -3.40
Roosters 2.59 -5.68 8.30
Broncos 2.01 -1.55 3.60
Knights 1.91 0.44 1.50
Bulldogs -0.23 7.33 -7.60
Titans -0.27 -1.85 1.60
Dragons -1.21 -0.33 -0.90
Sharks -2.34 -1.78 -0.60
Raiders -4.25 2.03 -6.30
Wests Tigers -4.92 -3.71 -1.20
Panthers -7.12 -6.58 -0.50
Eels -9.18 -8.82 -0.40
Warriors -9.91 -10.01 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Apr 12 12 – 10 3.06 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 38 – 0 -0.36 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 13 8 – 6 16.41 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 13 20 – 16 11.70 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Apr 13 10 – 17 -0.78 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Apr 14 25 – 18 17.91 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 12 – 13 1.25 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels Apr 14 28 – 22 15.26 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 8.30
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 26.00
3 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 Sea Eagles 8.30
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 27 Cowboys 12.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 Broncos -2.40
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 28 Titans 2.30
7 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 28 Sharks 2.40
8 Panthers vs. Eels Apr 29 Panthers 6.60

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.58 9.03 -1.40
Chiefs 5.37 6.98 -1.60
Sharks 4.10 4.57 -0.50
Bulls 3.92 2.55 1.40
Stormers 3.70 3.34 0.40
Brumbies 2.77 -1.06 3.80
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Reds 0.47 0.46 0.00
Hurricanes -0.14 4.40 -4.50
Cheetahs -1.30 -4.16 2.90
Waratahs -5.09 -4.10 -1.00
Highlanders -6.13 -3.41 -2.70
Force -8.34 -9.73 1.40
Kings -10.51 -10.00 -0.50
Rebels -13.27 -10.64 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Apr 19 22 – 16 13.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 19 25 – 20 -8.60 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 20 24 – 8 16.20 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 20 19 – 19 0.20 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 20 6 – 12 10.60 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 20 0 – 34 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 26 Hurricanes 0.20
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 26 Reds 2.40
3 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 27 Chiefs 5.30
4 Brumbies vs. Force Apr 27 Brumbies 13.60
5 Bulls vs. Waratahs Apr 27 Bulls 13.00
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings Apr 27 Cheetahs 11.70
7 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 28 Crusaders 24.80

 

April 17, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.59 9.03 -1.40
Chiefs 6.46 6.98 -0.50
Sharks 5.43 4.57 0.90
Stormers 3.70 3.34 0.40
Brumbies 2.75 -1.06 3.80
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Bulls 1.81 2.55 -0.70
Reds 0.49 0.46 0.00
Hurricanes 0.45 4.40 -3.90
Cheetahs -2.63 -4.16 1.50
Highlanders -6.15 -3.41 -2.70
Waratahs -6.18 -4.10 -2.10
Kings -8.41 -10.00 1.60
Force -8.93 -9.73 0.80
Rebels -13.27 -10.64 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 12 19 – 30 -3.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 13 23 – 31 13.40 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 28 – 6 0.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Kings Apr 13 27 – 30 -0.50 TRUE
5 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 13 16 – 14 -15.30 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Apr 13 22 – 15 -0.40 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 13 26 – 20 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Apr 19 Hurricanes 13.40
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 19 Chiefs -8.60
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 20 Crusaders 16.20
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Reds 0.20
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 20 Sharks 10.60
6 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 20 Bulls -7.70

 

April 10, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 9.73 1.20
Sea Eagles 9.97 4.78 5.20
Rabbitohs 5.68 5.23 0.40
Bulldogs 3.61 7.33 -3.70
Cowboys 3.55 7.05 -3.50
Knights 3.35 0.44 2.90
Broncos 2.11 -1.55 3.70
Titans 0.66 -1.85 2.50
Roosters -1.25 -5.68 4.40
Dragons -1.44 -0.33 -1.10
Sharks -3.43 -1.78 -1.60
Raiders -3.48 2.03 -5.50
Wests Tigers -4.69 -3.71 -1.00
Panthers -8.56 -6.58 -2.00
Eels -10.11 -8.82 -1.30
Warriors -10.68 -10.01 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 05 6 – 20 1.17 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 05 12 – 32 8.80 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 13 – 6 -4.47 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 06 30 – 0 13.26 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 07 19 – 16 -1.12 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 22 – 24 -14.32 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Apr 07 24 – 22 2.34 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Apr 08 26 – 12 21.68 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Apr 12 Broncos 3.10
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 Bulldogs -0.40
3 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 13 Knights 16.40
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 13 Raiders 11.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Apr 13 Storm -0.80
6 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Apr 14 Sea Eagles 17.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 Wests Tigers 1.20
8 Titans vs. Eels Apr 14 Titans 15.30

 

Super 15 Predictions, Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.98 9.03 -0.00
Chiefs 8.18 6.98 1.20
Sharks 6.02 4.57 1.50
Stormers 3.11 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.17 -1.06 3.20
Hurricanes 2.16 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.90 2.55 -0.60
Blues 0.37 -3.02 3.40
Reds -1.22 0.46 -1.70
Cheetahs -2.72 -4.16 1.40
Highlanders -5.57 -3.41 -2.20
Waratahs -6.18 -4.10 -2.10
Kings -8.61 -10.00 1.40
Force -10.32 -9.73 -0.60
Rebels -13.06 -10.64 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 18 8.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Kings Apr 05 28 – 28 17.60 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 05 21 – 17 0.50 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 06 41 – 29 12.40 TRUE
5 Force vs. Rebels Apr 06 23 – 30 7.60 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Apr 06 26 – 24 -4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Brumbies -3.70
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 13 Chiefs 13.40
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 Blues 0.70
4 Rebels vs. Kings Apr 13 Kings -0.50
5 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 13 Crusaders -15.30
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Apr 13 Sharks -0.40
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 13 Bulls 7.10

 

April 3, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.72 9.73 2.00
Sea Eagles 8.46 4.78 3.70
Rabbitohs 6.91 5.23 1.70
Bulldogs 5.13 7.33 -2.20
Knights 3.77 0.44 3.30
Titans 3.54 -1.85 5.40
Cowboys 1.87 7.05 -5.20
Broncos -0.77 -1.55 0.80
Roosters -1.28 -5.68 4.40
Dragons -1.85 -0.33 -1.50
Sharks -2.29 -1.78 -0.50
Raiders -3.44 2.03 -5.50
Wests Tigers -5.46 -3.71 -1.80
Panthers -6.88 -6.58 -0.30
Eels -11.25 -8.82 -2.40
Warriors -11.91 -10.01 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Mar 28 26 – 0 16.52 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Mar 29 12 – 17 4.65 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Mar 29 26 – 32 -8.49 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 30 12 – 25 8.33 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Titans Mar 31 10 – 28 -2.90 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 31 28 – 12 10.64 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 01 20 – 18 -12.11 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Eels Apr 01 50 – 0 5.59 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 05 Bulldogs 1.20
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 05 Titans 8.80
3 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 Sharks -4.50
4 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 06 Cowboys 13.30
5 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 07 Knights -1.10
6 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 Rabbitohs -14.30
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Apr 07 Raiders 2.30
8 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Apr 08 Storm 21.70

 

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