Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

May 11, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.59 7.35 0.20
Bristol 5.01 1.28 3.70
Harlequins 3.82 -1.08 4.90
Sale Sharks 3.45 4.96 -1.50
Northampton Saints -0.20 -2.48 2.30
Wasps -0.81 5.66 -6.50
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Bath -2.89 2.14 -5.00
Leicester Tigers -4.08 -6.14 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.88 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -6.97 -8.05 1.10
Worcester Warriors -10.11 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 08 26 – 10 11.40 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Bristol May 09 20 – 40 -1.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors May 09 41 – 10 21.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish May 09 52 – 27 2.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 09 7 – 31 8.40 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Wasps May 10 48 – 46 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks May 15 Sale Sharks -1.80
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 16 Harlequins -3.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors May 16 Wasps 13.80
4 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 18 Bristol 10.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints May 18 Northampton Saints -2.20
6 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Exeter Chiefs -10.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

I have adjusted these predictions now because I see that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium. The home ground advantage values have been changed for all but the Warriors versus the Eels.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.30 14.53 5.80
Panthers 14.26 8.88 5.40
Roosters 12.71 10.25 2.50
Eels 9.32 1.68 7.60
Rabbitohs 6.61 7.73 -1.10
Raiders -0.53 6.98 -7.50
Warriors -1.93 -1.84 -0.10
Sea Eagles -2.37 -4.77 2.40
Dragons -2.80 -4.95 2.20
Sharks -4.41 -0.76 -3.60
Knights -4.80 -2.61 -2.20
Titans -5.92 -7.22 1.30
Wests Tigers -7.75 -3.07 -4.70
Broncos -10.30 -11.16 0.90
Cowboys -10.58 -8.05 -2.50
Bulldogs -13.82 -7.62 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 0 – 50 -2.90 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 48 – 0 16.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 31 – 18 -3.20 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 16 – 24 10.50 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 28 – 36 3.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 19 – 18 3.10 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 38 – 32 1.80 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 32 – 12 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 14 Knights -3.00
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 Sea Eagles -4.90
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 15 Raiders -13.30
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 15 Rabbitohs -11.00
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 15 Roosters 23.30
6 Warriors vs. Eels May 16 Eels -11.20
7 Storm vs. Dragons May 16 Storm 26.10
8 Titans vs. Panthers May 16 Panthers -17.20

 

May 4, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.35 3.22 3.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Racing-Metro 92 4.47 6.21 -1.70
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 1.78 3.56 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.23 -3.22 3.00
Castres Olympique -0.58 -0.47 -0.10
Brive -1.74 -3.26 1.50
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.14 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -15.08 -4.72 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 30 23 – 26 0.40 FALSE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive May 02 37 – 27 14.20 TRUE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris May 02 29 – 35 11.40 FALSE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen May 02 34 – 17 23.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 Castres Olympique 0.20
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 09 Bordeaux-Begles -3.70
3 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 09 Brive 4.00
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 09 Montpellier 0.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 09 Racing-Metro 92 3.60
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 09 Stade Toulousain -0.80
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 09 Section Paloise -6.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

By

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

Another week where there were postponed games that eluded me. I have included these forecasts for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.64 3.22 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.07 6.21 -1.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.83 -3.22 2.40
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 41 – 30 2.90 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 46 – 32 7.10 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 34 – 16 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 30 Aviron Bayonnais 0.40
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive May 02 Clermont Auvergne 14.20
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris May 02 Racing-Metro 92 11.40
4 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen May 02 RC Toulonnais 23.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.88 14.49 0.40
Blues 7.68 7.80 -0.10
Hurricanes 6.55 7.13 -0.60
Chiefs 4.27 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.19 1.47 1.70
Highlanders 3.11 2.70 0.40
Reds 2.75 1.59 1.20
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.18 -13.05 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Apr 30 41 – 22 8.10 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 01 39 – 19 8.00 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 01 21 – 9 20.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 08 Crusaders 16.10
2 Reds vs. Brumbies May 08 Reds 5.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.41 14.53 1.90
Roosters 14.12 10.25 3.90
Panthers 11.60 8.88 2.70
Rabbitohs 10.50 7.73 2.80
Eels 7.91 1.68 6.20
Raiders 1.07 6.98 -5.90
Warriors -1.53 -1.84 0.30
Sharks -1.75 -0.76 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.76 -4.77 2.00
Dragons -3.46 -4.95 1.50
Knights -6.39 -2.61 -3.80
Wests Tigers -6.76 -3.07 -3.70
Titans -6.91 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -10.36 -8.05 -2.30
Broncos -10.51 -11.16 0.60
Bulldogs -13.16 -7.62 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 20 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 40 – 14 20.10 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 36 – 28 -2.50 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 28 – 16 18.60 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 10 – 32 -17.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 4 – 38 -14.10 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 24 – 20 9.90 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 8 – 16 9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 Storm -2.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 Panthers 16.30
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 Roosters -3.20
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 Raiders 10.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 Wests Tigers 3.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 Cowboys 3.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 Sea Eagles 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 Dragons 12.70

 

April 28, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.64 3.22 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.07 6.21 -1.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.83 -3.22 2.40
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 146 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 41 – 30 2.90 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 46 – 32 7.10 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 34 – 16 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 08 Bordeaux-Begles -3.50
2 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 08 Brive 4.30
3 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 Lyon Rugby -0.00
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 08 Montpellier 0.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 08 Racing-Metro 92 3.90
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 08 Stade Toulousain -0.30
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 08 Section Paloise -6.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.88 14.49 0.40
Blues 7.24 7.80 -0.60
Hurricanes 6.14 7.13 -1.00
Chiefs 4.71 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 3.53 1.47 2.10
Highlanders 3.52 2.70 0.80
Reds 2.75 1.59 1.20
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.52 -13.05 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 23 26 – 24 4.40 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Reds Apr 23 30 – 27 -9.70 FALSE
3 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 24 25 – 36 2.00 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 29 – 6 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Apr 30 Hurricanes 8.10
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 01 Blues 8.00
3 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 01 Brumbies 20.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.03 7.35 -0.30
Harlequins 4.29 -1.08 5.40
Bristol 4.05 1.28 2.80
Sale Sharks 3.16 4.96 -1.80
Northampton Saints 1.34 -2.48 3.80
Wasps -1.28 5.66 -6.90
Bath -1.93 2.14 -4.10
Gloucester -2.56 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -3.79 -6.14 2.30
London Irish -5.84 -8.05 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -8.02 -10.00 2.00
Worcester Warriors -9.55 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 24 12 – 20 2.70 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 24 21 – 25 -5.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 25 35 – 24 9.80 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 25 18 – 23 0.00 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 25 32 – 35 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bath Apr 26 39 – 29 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol May 09 Bristol -1.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors May 09 Exeter Chiefs 21.10
3 Harlequins vs. Wasps May 09 Harlequins 10.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish May 09 Newcastle Falcons 2.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 09 Northampton Saints 8.40
6 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 09 Sale Sharks 11.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.87 14.53 1.30
Roosters 12.41 10.25 2.20
Panthers 12.19 8.88 3.30
Rabbitohs 9.67 7.73 1.90
Eels 7.46 1.68 5.80
Raiders 1.89 6.98 -5.10
Warriors -0.99 -1.84 0.90
Sharks -1.21 -0.76 -0.40
Dragons -1.96 -4.95 3.00
Sea Eagles -3.36 -4.77 1.40
Knights -4.68 -2.61 -2.10
Titans -5.98 -7.22 1.20
Wests Tigers -8.26 -3.07 -5.20
Cowboys -10.91 -8.05 -2.90
Broncos -11.44 -11.16 -0.30
Bulldogs -12.71 -7.62 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Knights Apr 22 24 – 6 20.30 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 30 – 40 -13.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 23 46 – 6 18.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 12 – 18 18.70 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 24 26 – 24 -12.30 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 6 – 40 4.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 34 – 10 15.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 42 – 20 19.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 Rabbitohs -4.80
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 Storm 20.10
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 Titans -2.50
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 Panthers 18.60
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 Eels -17.20
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 Roosters -14.10
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 Warriors 9.90
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 Dragons 9.30

 

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