Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

March 2, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.01 7.35 -1.30
Bristol 3.75 1.28 2.50
Sale Sharks 3.27 4.96 -1.70
Harlequins 1.51 -1.08 2.60
Wasps 0.48 5.66 -5.20
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Bath -1.85 2.14 -4.00
Gloucester -2.86 -1.02 -1.80
Leicester Tigers -4.58 -6.14 1.60
London Irish -5.03 -8.05 3.00
Newcastle Falcons -5.78 -10.00 4.20
Worcester Warriors -7.27 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 28 17 – 3 12.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 28 22 – 14 9.10 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Feb 28 25 – 22 -3.60 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 01 22 – 23 6.50 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 25 – 20 1.20 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Feb 28 10 – 16 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 07 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Mar 08 Harlequins 6.80
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 06 Leicester Tigers 4.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 06 Sale Sharks 13.60
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 Wasps 7.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Mar 07 Bristol -6.50

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.78 16.52 0.30
Munster 10.45 9.90 0.50
Ulster 9.30 4.58 4.70
Edinburgh 3.98 5.49 -1.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.32 5.66 -2.30
Connacht 2.67 0.70 2.00
Scarlets 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.55 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -1.56 -2.82 1.30
Treviso -6.53 -3.50 -3.00
Dragons -8.55 -7.85 -0.70
Zebre -14.67 -15.37 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Connacht Feb 27 11 – 20 -1.30 TRUE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Feb 27 25 – 27 -5.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Ospreys Feb 27 21 – 7 18.10 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 40 – 21 8.80 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Dragons Feb 28 26 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 01 17 – 19 21.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Connacht Mar 06 Munster 12.80
2 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 07 Glasgow Warriors -11.50
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 07 Ospreys 12.00
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 07 Leinster -2.50
5 Edinburgh vs. Treviso Mar 08 Edinburgh 17.00

 

February 23, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.13 4.80 3.30
La Rochelle 6.71 2.32 4.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.26 6.21 0.00
Clermont Auvergne 6.24 3.22 3.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.58 2.83 1.80
RC Toulonnais 3.74 3.56 0.20
Lyon Rugby 3.67 5.61 -1.90
Montpellier 1.03 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.66 -3.22 2.60
Castres Olympique -1.60 -0.47 -1.10
Brive -2.78 -3.26 0.50
Section Paloise -4.19 -4.48 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -7.43 -4.13 -3.30
SU Agen -13.13 -4.72 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 22 25 – 23 -2.50 FALSE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 21 73 – 3 14.80 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 21 16 – 11 12.90 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 22 31 – 23 0.90 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 20 23 – 20 13.70 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 21 29 – 33 -1.20 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Montpellier Feb 21 19 – 39 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 27 RC Toulonnais 14.90
2 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 28 La Rochelle 4.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 2.30 1.59 0.70
Brumbies 1.76 1.47 0.30
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.73 -5.02 -0.70
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 41 – 7 12.10 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 11 – 27 -9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 Crusaders -6.30
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 Reds 11.30
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 Hurricanes 4.80
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 Brumbies 13.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

I was a bit unsure as to how to deal with Super Rugby this year but will treat it as one competition not separate Australian and New Zealand competitions followed by a joint competition. I will give predictions each week rather than by the designated rounds. Predictions are based on all games played last year in either the initial Super Rugby competition and then the separate country competitions. I am not sure how that will work for the combined competition due to start in May.

This forecast is obviously after the fact but I decided to publish it for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.49 14.49 0.00
Blues 7.80 7.80 0.00
Hurricanes 7.13 7.13 0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Highlanders 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Reds 1.59 1.59 -0.00
Brumbies 1.47 1.47 -0.00
Rebels -3.51 -3.51 0.00
Waratahs -5.02 -5.02 0.00
Western Force -13.05 -13.05 -0.00

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 19 Reds 12.10
2 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 19 Brumbies -9.00

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.31 7.35 -1.00
Bristol 3.64 1.28 2.40
Sale Sharks 2.97 4.96 -2.00
Harlequins 1.90 -1.08 3.00
Wasps 1.40 5.66 -4.30
Northampton Saints -0.30 -2.48 2.20
Bath -2.30 2.14 -4.40
Gloucester -2.77 -1.02 -1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.47 -6.14 1.70
London Irish -5.95 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 16 – 14 5.50 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 12 – 13 12.60 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 24 – 12 2.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 27 – 8 -3.60 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 34 – 34 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 28 Bristol 12.60
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 28 Gloucester 9.10
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Feb 28 Harlequins -3.60
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 01 Northampton Saints 6.50
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 27 Sale Sharks 1.20
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Feb 28 Wasps 11.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.60 16.52 1.10
Munster 10.72 9.90 0.80
Ulster 9.67 4.58 5.10
Edinburgh 3.52 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 2.50 5.66 -3.20
Connacht 1.98 0.70 1.30
Scarlets 1.21 1.98 -0.80
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.83 0.08 -0.90
Ospreys -1.93 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.84 -3.50 -2.30
Dragons -8.05 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.17 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 29 – 35 -20.30 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 13 – 19 0.50 FALSE
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 41 – 17 12.60 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 10 – 0 20.70 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 32 – 17 8.10 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 10 – 22 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Connacht Feb 27 Connacht -1.30
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Feb 27 Munster -5.00
3 Ulster vs. Ospreys Feb 27 Ulster 18.10
4 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 Edinburgh 8.80
5 Zebre vs. Dragons Feb 28 Dragons -0.60
6 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 01 Leinster 21.60

 

February 16, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.62 4.80 3.80
La Rochelle 7.28 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.67 6.21 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 4.90 2.83 2.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 3.22 1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.53 3.56 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 3.18 5.61 -2.40
Montpellier 0.55 2.30 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -1.20 -3.22 2.00
Castres Olympique -2.04 -0.47 -1.60
Brive -3.08 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -4.00 -4.48 0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -6.03 -4.13 -1.90
SU Agen -12.65 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Feb 15 26 – 23 3.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 14 44 – 6 9.00 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Feb 14 48 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 14 34 – 26 10.00 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Feb 15 11 – 29 3.30 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 31 – 9 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 22 Bordeaux-Begles -2.50
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 21 Clermont Auvergne 14.80
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 21 La Rochelle 12.90
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 22 Lyon Rugby 0.90
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 20 Racing-Metro 92 13.70
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 21 RC Toulonnais -1.20
7 SU Agen vs. Montpellier Feb 21 Montpellier -6.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.05 7.35 -0.30
Bristol 4.00 1.28 2.70
Sale Sharks 3.52 4.96 -1.40
Wasps 2.54 5.66 -3.10
Harlequins 1.35 -1.08 2.40
Northampton Saints -1.04 -2.48 1.40
Bath -2.01 2.14 -4.10
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -5.61 -6.14 0.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
London Irish -6.31 -8.05 1.70
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Feb 14 26 – 3 17.10 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Feb 13 17 – 18 -2.80 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 14 37 – 24 11.20 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Feb 13 22 – 27 11.80 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Feb 15 13 – 17 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 Bath 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 Exeter Chiefs 12.60
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 Harlequins 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 Wasps -3.60
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 Bristol -5.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 21 Worcester Warriors 3.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

More weird stuff this week. A game that was previously listed as Round 12 is now listed as Round 14. Also because the game scheduled for last week was not played, my last week results refer to the previous week for which I have already published the result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 0.71 1.98 -1.30
Cardiff Blues -0.20 0.08 -0.30
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 Leinster -20.30
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 Glasgow Warriors 0.50
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 Scarlets 12.60
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 Ospreys 20.70
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 Connacht 8.10
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 Edinburgh 0.30

 

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