November 8, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.34 6.34 2.00
La Rochelle 5.75 6.88 -1.10
Racing 92 4.47 4.86 -0.40
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.82 4.09 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.59 5.27 -1.70
Clermont 3.46 4.05 -0.60
Castres Olympique 2.70 2.87 -0.20
Stade Francais 2.30 -1.05 3.40
Lyon 2.14 3.10 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.82 -2.12 1.30
Aviron Bayonnais -2.08 -4.26 2.20
USA Perpignan -4.65 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -5.99 -4.20 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Nov 06 17 – 19 -5.60 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 06 20 – 25 13.20 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 06 26 – 20 5.90 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Nov 06 44 – 20 14.70 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 06 16 – 16 13.50 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 07 33 – 7 0.50 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Montpellier Nov 07 16 – 26 7.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Nov 27 La Rochelle 9.60
2 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 27 Montpellier 12.80
3 Section Paloise vs. Brive Nov 27 Section Paloise 11.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 27 Stade Francais 5.00
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 27 Bordeaux Begles -1.70
6 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 28 Lyon 0.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Nov 28 Racing 92 7.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.23 7.93 -1.70
Sale Sharks 4.96 4.14 0.80
Gloucester 4.47 5.92 -1.40
Harlequins 3.62 3.92 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 3.61 3.67 -0.10
Northampton Saints 2.07 3.99 -1.90
Saracens 0.89 -5.00 5.90
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
London Irish -1.57 -1.65 0.10
Bristol -4.85 -2.43 -2.40
Bath -6.82 -9.15 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -9.68 -8.76 -0.90
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 05 26 – 19 2.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 05 27 – 17 4.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Nov 06 10 – 17 2.70 FALSE
4 Bristol vs. Saracens Nov 06 10 – 25 0.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 12 Leicester Tigers -8.50
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 13 Gloucester 18.70
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Nov 13 Exeter Chiefs 9.70
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Nov 14 Saracens 3.30

 

November 5, 2022

Winston First?

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An ongoing theme of StatsChat is that single political polls aren’t a great source of information, and that you need to combine them. A case in point: this piece at Stuff describing a new Horizon poll.  The headline is Winston Peters returns to kingmaker position in new political poll, and the poll has NZ First on 6.75%.  My second-favourite NZ poll aggregator, Wikipedia, shows other recent polls, where the public results from Curia, Roy Morgan, and Kantar were 2.1%, 1%, and 3% and a leaked result from Talbot Mills was 4%.  It’s possible that this shows a real and massive jump over the past couple of weeks. Stranger things do happen in politics — but not much stranger and not all that often. It’s quite likely that it’s just some sort of blip and doesn’t mean much.

Stuff does add “The poll had a margin of error of 3.2%, meaning NZ First’s crossing the 5% threshold was within the margin of error,”  but that’s the wrong caveat.   The 3.2% margin of error is more strictly called the ‘maximum margin of error’, because it’s the margin of error for proportions near 50%, which is larger than at, say, 5%.  I’ve written before about calculating the corresponding margin of error for minor parties.

In this case, under the pure mathematical sampling approximations used to get 3.2%, a 95% uncertainty interval for NZ First’s true support would go from 5.2% to 8.5%. If we only worried about sampling error, NZ First would be fairly clearly above the 5% threshold.  The problem is that the mathematical sampling error  is typically an underestimate of total survey error — and when you get a very surprising result, it’s sensible to consider that you might possibly be out on the fringes of the total survey error.  Or not. We will find out soon.

 

 

 

 

 

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November 1, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.43 16.79 0.60
Ulster 10.22 9.27 1.00
Bulls 7.52 7.84 -0.30
Stormers 7.40 7.14 0.30
Munster 7.04 9.78 -2.70
Sharks 5.64 6.95 -1.30
Edinburgh 5.52 3.58 1.90
Glasgow 0.39 -0.00 0.40
Connacht 0.04 -1.60 1.60
Lions -0.81 -1.74 0.90
Ospreys -1.90 -0.83 -1.10
Scarlets -4.08 -1.23 -2.80
Benetton -5.42 -3.68 -1.70
Cardiff Rugby -6.20 -7.42 1.20
Dragons -10.19 -11.81 1.60
Zebre -16.57 -16.99 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Oct 29 37 – 0 8.20 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Oct 29 5 – 35 -15.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 30 22 – 31 -3.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 30 47 – 7 8.70 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Ulster Oct 30 14 – 15 1.30 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Connacht Oct 30 19 – 22 3.90 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 31 40 – 27 5.00 TRUE
8 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Oct 31 17 – 25 -7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Scarlets Nov 26 Stormers 16.00
2 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 26 Ulster 31.30
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 Edinburgh -6.40
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Nov 26 Bulls 13.90
5 Leinster vs. Glasgow Nov 27 Leinster 21.50
6 Munster vs. Connacht Nov 27 Munster 11.00
7 Lions vs. Dragons Nov 28 Lions 13.90
8 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 28 Sharks 16.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.80 6.34 2.50
La Rochelle 5.93 6.88 -0.90
Bordeaux Begles 4.38 5.27 -0.90
Toulon 4.38 4.09 0.30
Clermont 4.05 4.05 -0.00
Racing 92 4.00 4.86 -0.90
Montpellier 3.66 4.18 -0.50
Castres Olympique 2.70 2.87 -0.20
Lyon 2.14 3.10 -1.00
Stade Francais 1.85 -1.05 2.90
Section Paloise -1.61 -2.12 0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -2.67 -4.26 1.60
USA Perpignan -4.18 -2.75 -1.40
Brive -6.17 -4.20 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 30 26 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Racing 92 Oct 30 38 – 43 -3.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Oct 30 26 – 22 5.30 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Oct 30 21 – 38 16.00 FALSE
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Oct 30 23 – 19 8.80 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 30 28 – 21 -0.60 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Oct 31 27 – 26 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Nov 06 La Rochelle -5.60
2 Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 06 Clermont 13.20
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 06 Lyon 5.90
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Nov 06 Racing 92 14.70
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 06 Stade Toulousain 13.50
6 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 07 Section Paloise 0.50
7 Toulon vs. Montpellier Nov 07 Toulon 7.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.23 7.93 -1.70
Gloucester 4.83 5.92 -1.10
Sale Sharks 4.61 4.14 0.50
Exeter Chiefs 3.91 3.67 0.20
Harlequins 3.62 3.92 -0.30
Northampton Saints 1.78 3.99 -2.20
Saracens 0.07 -5.00 5.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
London Irish -1.57 -1.65 0.10
Bristol -4.03 -2.43 -1.60
Bath -7.37 -9.15 1.80
Newcastle Falcons -9.12 -8.76 -0.40
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 29 38 – 22 4.10 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Oct 30 26 – 24 10.70 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 30 45 – 31 9.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 33 – 22 -1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 05 Northampton Saints 2.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 05 Sale Sharks 4.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Nov 06 Newcastle Falcons 2.70
4 Bristol vs. Saracens Nov 06 Bristol 0.40

 

October 25, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Ulster 9.99 9.27 0.70
Munster 7.27 9.78 -2.50
Bulls 7.10 7.84 -0.70
Stormers 6.80 7.14 -0.30
Sharks 6.07 6.95 -0.90
Edinburgh 5.43 3.58 1.90
Lions -0.21 -1.74 1.50
Connacht -0.65 -1.60 0.90
Glasgow -0.66 -0.00 -0.70
Ospreys -1.21 -0.83 -0.40
Scarlets -3.43 -1.23 -2.20
Benetton -4.37 -3.68 -0.70
Cardiff Rugby -6.11 -7.42 1.30
Dragons -11.30 -11.81 0.50
Zebre -15.46 -16.99 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 22 22 – 44 -5.50 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Oct 22 36 – 14 5.90 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 19 – 38 -15.70 TRUE
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Oct 23 30 – 24 -9.80 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 23 27 – 13 13.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 24 32 – 25 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Oct 29 Glasgow 8.20
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Oct 29 Leinster -15.70
3 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 30 Stormers -3.00
4 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 30 Dragons 8.70
5 Munster vs. Ulster Oct 30 Munster 1.30
6 Ospreys vs. Connacht Oct 30 Ospreys 3.90
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 31 Bulls 5.00
8 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Oct 31 Edinburgh -7.00

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.29 6.34 2.90
La Rochelle 6.90 6.88 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.68 5.27 -0.60
Toulon 4.08 4.09 -0.00
Clermont 3.99 4.05 -0.10
Racing 92 3.93 4.86 -0.90
Montpellier 3.90 4.18 -0.30
Castres Olympique 2.76 2.87 -0.10
Lyon 2.52 3.10 -0.60
Stade Francais 1.61 -1.05 2.70
Section Paloise -2.58 -2.12 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -3.17 -4.26 1.10
USA Perpignan -4.56 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.10 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 23 24 – 20 8.30 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 23 23 – 23 6.50 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Oct 23 31 – 27 12.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 23 38 – 31 6.50 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Brive Oct 23 27 – 0 13.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Oct 23 28 – 20 7.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Oct 24 26 – 17 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 30 Stade Toulousain -6.00
2 Brive vs. Racing 92 Oct 30 Racing 92 -3.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Oct 30 Castres Olympique 5.30
4 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Oct 30 La Rochelle 16.00
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Oct 30 Montpellier 8.80
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 30 Lyon -0.60
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Oct 31 Bordeaux Begles 7.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.23 7.93 -1.70
Sale Sharks 5.29 4.14 1.20
Exeter Chiefs 4.56 3.67 0.90
Gloucester 4.17 5.92 -1.70
Harlequins 4.12 3.92 0.20
Northampton Saints 1.50 3.99 -2.50
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Saracens -0.61 -5.00 4.40
London Irish -2.07 -1.65 -0.40
Bristol -3.76 -2.43 -1.30
Bath -7.37 -9.15 1.80
Newcastle Falcons -9.12 -8.76 -0.40
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 22 21 – 22 -1.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Oct 23 27 – 14 -6.40 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 23 20 – 22 11.10 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 24 13 – 29 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 29 Gloucester 4.10
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Oct 30 Harlequins 10.70
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 30 Northampton Saints 9.80
4 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 Sale Sharks -1.40

 

October 20, 2022

Bus cancellations

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The friendly StatsChat busbots have been tracking cancellations as well as delays: for the past month in Auckland and longer in Wellington.  Here’s a summary of the Auckland cancellations

They seem to be up again, which might not be entirely unconnected with the current increase in Covid cases. Perhaps more to the point, that’s a lot of missing buses.

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