September 13, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.63 7.93 -0.30
Gloucester 5.63 5.92 -0.30
Sale Sharks 4.32 4.14 0.20
Harlequins 3.99 3.92 0.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.97 3.67 0.30
Northampton Saints 3.80 3.99 -0.20
Wasps 1.06 0.77 0.30
London Irish -0.81 -1.65 0.80
Bristol -2.96 -2.43 -0.50
Saracens -5.00 -5.00 0.00
Bath -8.62 -9.15 0.50
Newcastle Falcons -8.82 -8.76 -0.10
Worcester Warriors -13.11 -12.27 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Sep 10 31 – 29 11.20 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Sep 10 29 – 22 4.60 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 11 24 – 20 0.20 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 11 45 – 14 15.10 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 11 31 – 40 -8.20 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Wasps Sep 12 27 – 21 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Sep 17 Northampton Saints 9.10
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Sep 18 Sale Sharks -8.40
3 Harlequins vs. Saracens Sep 18 Harlequins 13.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 18 Leicester Tigers 21.00
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 18 Wasps 8.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 Exeter Chiefs -12.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.22 2.00 5.20
Hawke’s Bay 6.32 5.87 0.50
Waikato 5.44 2.00 3.40
Auckland 4.20 4.50 -0.30
Bay of Plenty 3.27 0.10 3.20
North Harbour 3.27 2.31 1.00
Tasman 2.89 5.94 -3.10
Wellington 2.32 3.58 -1.30
Taranaki -0.14 3.63 -3.80
Otago -1.66 -1.63 -0.00
Northland -4.82 -6.68 1.90
Counties Manukau -5.80 -6.32 0.50
Southland -8.50 -7.01 -1.50
Manawatu -11.69 -5.97 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 09 30 – 15 2.40 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Sep 10 69 – 24 14.70 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 10 34 – 48 4.30 FALSE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 10 41 – 33 8.50 TRUE
5 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 38 – 27 4.20 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 11 32 – 26 6.60 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Northland Sep 11 46 – 17 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 14 Waikato 16.40

 

September 12, 2022

New euphemism for ‘bogus poll’

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Stuff has a headline Tory Whanau clear leader in straw poll for Wellington mayoralty.

This is bad. Election polling is valuable because it gives people some feeling for what the rest of the electorate thinks, solving the Pauline Kael problem

 “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.” — Pauline Kael, NYT film critic

Polling also gives newspapers something to write about that’s novel and at least a bit informative.

With good polling, people have an accurate idea of public opinion; with poor polling they have an inaccurate idea. With self-selected bogus polling they have no idea at all.  The Dominion Post even tweeted about this story

The poll, while unashamedly unscientific, points to Wellington’s next mayor being relative unknown Tory Whanau less than a week from voting papers going out.

The poll is incapable of pointing to anything, so it doesn’t point to Tory Whanau being the next mayor, however desirable that might be.

Back in the early days of StatsChat, when John Key debated David Cunliffe, we showed the results of three useless self-selected bogus polls about who had done better: Newstalk ZB was 63% in favour of Cunliffe; TVNZ was 61% in favour of Key; the Herald was a tie.

If a poll like this gets the right answer, it’s basically an accident. There’s no excuse for headlining the results as if they meant something.

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September 8, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.42 2.00 4.40
Hawke’s Bay 5.03 5.87 -0.80
Auckland 4.87 4.50 0.40
Waikato 4.77 2.00 2.80
North Harbour 4.15 2.31 1.80
Bay of Plenty 2.39 0.10 2.30
Wellington 2.38 3.58 -1.20
Tasman 2.21 5.94 -3.70
Taranaki 0.55 3.63 -3.10
Otago -1.72 -1.63 -0.10
Northland -4.02 -6.68 2.70
Counties Manukau -5.75 -6.32 0.60
Southland -7.21 -7.01 -0.20
Manawatu -11.74 -5.97 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 07 19 – 25 3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 09 Waikato 2.40
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Sep 10 Hawke’s Bay 14.70
3 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 10 North Harbour 4.30
4 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 10 Counties Manukau 8.50
5 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 Tasman 4.20
6 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 11 Wellington 6.60
7 Canterbury vs. Northland Sep 11 Canterbury 12.90

 

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September 6, 2022

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.44 19.20 -6.80
Panthers 10.42 14.26 -3.80
Roosters 8.82 2.23 6.60
Rabbitohs 8.00 15.81 -7.80
Cowboys 6.39 -12.27 18.70
Sharks 6.22 -1.10 7.30
Eels 5.86 2.54 3.30
Raiders 2.54 -1.10 3.60
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Sep 01 22 – 14 -5.20 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 21 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 26 – 16 2.60 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Sep 03 26 – 27 1.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Broncos Sep 03 22 – 12 5.50 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 03 38 – 8 -4.90 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 16 – 38 -11.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 10 – 56 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 09 Panthers 7.60
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 10 Storm 12.90
3 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 2.80
4 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 Roosters 3.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately I missed the first round.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.67 6.34 0.30
La Rochelle 6.62 6.88 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.95 5.27 -0.30
Racing 92 4.73 4.86 -0.10
Montpellier 4.44 4.18 0.30
Toulon 4.10 4.09 0.00
Clermont 3.82 4.05 -0.20
Lyon 3.26 3.10 0.20
Castres Olympique 2.99 2.87 0.10
Stade Francais -0.82 -1.05 0.20
Section Paloise -2.38 -2.12 -0.30
USA Perpignan -2.49 -2.75 0.30
Aviron Bayonnais -4.27 -4.26 -0.00
Brive -4.36 -4.20 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Sep 03 25 – 19 8.50 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Lyon Sep 04 27 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Sep 04 16 – 14 7.10 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Sep 04 24 – 18 1.40 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Aviron Bayonnais Sep 04 40 – 25 14.90 TRUE
6 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Sep 04 26 – 22 9.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 05 25 – 26 5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. La Rochelle Sep 10 Lyon 3.10
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Racing 92 Sep 11 Racing 92 -2.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Sep 11 Castres Olympique 10.30
4 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sep 11 Clermont 12.70
5 USA Perpignan vs. Brive Sep 11 USA Perpignan 8.40
6 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 11 Montpellier 6.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Sep 12 Stade Toulousain 9.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.93 7.93 0.00
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Northampton Saints 3.99 3.99 0.00
Harlequins 3.92 3.92 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.67 3.67 0.00
Wasps 0.77 0.77 -0.00
London Irish -1.65 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.43 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -5.00 -5.00 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.76 -8.76 -0.00
Bath -9.15 -9.15 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -12.27 -12.27 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Sep 10 Bristol 11.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 11 Exeter Chiefs 0.20
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 11 London Irish 15.10
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 11 Harlequins -8.20
6 Gloucester vs. Wasps Sep 12 Gloucester 9.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.42 2.00 4.40
Hawke’s Bay 5.03 5.87 -0.80
Auckland 4.87 4.50 0.40
Waikato 4.77 2.00 2.80
North Harbour 4.15 2.31 1.80
Tasman 2.74 5.94 -3.20
Bay of Plenty 2.39 0.10 2.30
Wellington 1.85 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 0.55 3.63 -3.10
Otago -1.72 -1.63 -0.10
Northland -4.02 -6.68 2.70
Counties Manukau -5.75 -6.32 0.60
Southland -7.21 -7.01 -0.20
Manawatu -11.74 -5.97 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 02 26 – 36 -12.50 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 03 23 – 22 -7.40 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 03 6 – 21 -0.20 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 03 28 – 41 -5.70 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 04 32 – 28 3.90 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 04 27 – 33 -0.50 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 37 – 12 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 07 Tasman 3.40

 

September 2, 2022

Showing MPs expenses

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MPs expenses paid by the Parliamentary Service were published recently for the quarter ending June 30. Here are the averages by party (click to embiggen)

This is a terrible presentation of the data, though not the worst one I saw.  Simple bar charts like this are sometimes useful, but can be very misleading. Here’s a dotplot, showing the individual data points

In this version, you should immediately notice something. There are a lot of Labour MPs who aren’t getting any expenses! This might then prompt  you to go back to the website and read the “Understanding members’ expenses” page, and find out that these numbers don’t include Ministers’ expenses.  Most of the ministers are in the Labour Party (for some reason) and that will pull down the average.

You might then remove the ministers and compare averages again, but it’s not obvious that’s a good comparison. The outlying blue dot at the top there is Chris Luxon. It seems reasonable that the leader of the opposition could have more expenses than a random MP.  This then raises the question of whether comparing averages for non-Minister MPs between the government and opposition is sensible in general.  There are other questions: for example,  travel expenses will depend on where you live as well as where you go.  While we’re looking at outliers, I should also note the outlying blue dot at the bottom. That’s Sam Uffindell. He was elected in a by-election on June 18, so he didn’t have much time to rack up expenses.

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September 1, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.41 2.00 4.40
Auckland 5.36 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Waikato 4.02 2.00 2.00
North Harbour 3.43 2.31 1.10
Tasman 2.99 5.94 -3.00
Bay of Plenty 1.84 0.10 1.70
Wellington 1.40 3.58 -2.20
Taranaki 1.30 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.17 -1.63 0.50
Northland -4.51 -6.68 2.20
Counties Manukau -5.03 -6.32 1.30
Southland -6.77 -7.01 0.20
Manawatu -11.99 -5.97 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Aug 31 35 – 22 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 02 Tasman -12.50
2 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -7.40
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 03 Waikato -0.20
4 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 03 Wellington -5.70
5 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 04 Canterbury 3.90
6 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 04 Bay of Plenty -0.50
7 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 North Harbour 11.00

 

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