Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

September 15, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 9.20 8.40 0.80
Auckland 8.26 6.75 1.50
Bay of Plenty 7.12 8.21 -1.10
Wellington 4.81 6.47 -1.70
Waikato 2.97 1.31 1.70
North Harbour 2.08 2.87 -0.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.26 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.33 -4.42 1.10
Otago -5.53 -4.03 -1.50
Northland -7.88 -8.71 0.80
Counties Manukau -7.90 -8.18 0.30
Manawatu -11.41 -10.57 -0.80
Southland -12.87 -14.04 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 29 – 43 -2.50 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 53 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 6 – 38 -7.80 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 24 – 41 -20.30 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 43 – 26 4.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 36 – 29 -9.60 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 16 – 10 -11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 Tasman 25.70
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 Waikato 3.90
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 Canterbury 15.50
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 Bay of Plenty 23.00
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.60
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 Otago -2.90
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 Auckland 6.40

 

September 11, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.30 7.99 3.30
Sale Sharks 7.32 0.17 7.10
Saracens 7.06 9.34 -2.30
Wasps 4.90 0.31 4.60
Bristol 2.28 -2.77 5.10
Bath 2.06 1.10 1.00
Gloucester 0.50 0.58 -0.10
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Northampton Saints -2.86 0.25 -3.10
Leicester Tigers -6.59 -1.76 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -8.94 -2.69 -6.30
London Irish -9.24 -5.51 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 47 – 10 6.70 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 54 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 35 – 22 15.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 15 – 38 -1.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 24 – 17 4.30 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 40 – 15 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 Wasps 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 Leicester Tigers 0.80
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 London Irish 4.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 Sale Sharks 9.80
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 Saracens 0.30
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 Gloucester 6.60

 

September 8, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for the Qualifying Final

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 1.74 4.67 -2.90
Reds 1.56 -0.31 1.90
Rebels -3.84 -5.52 1.70
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.11 -10.00 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 34 – 30 10.40 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 26 – 7 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Final

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Rebels Sep 12 Reds 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.52 7.99 3.50
Saracens 7.27 9.34 -2.10
Sale Sharks 7.11 0.17 6.90
Wasps 3.29 0.31 3.00
Bath 1.47 1.10 0.40
Bristol 0.82 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.28 0.58 -0.30
Northampton Saints -1.41 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -2.67 -0.81 -1.90
Leicester Tigers -4.98 -1.76 -3.20
London Irish -8.14 -5.51 -2.60
Worcester Warriors -8.35 -2.69 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 13 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 19 – 22 -9.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 18 – 28 10.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 27 – 41 2.10 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 31 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 36 – 23 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 Bristol 6.70
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 Wasps 12.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 Exeter Chiefs 15.70
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 Harlequins -1.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.30
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 Bath 14.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.53 12.20 4.30
Munster 11.18 10.73 0.50
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 4.12 1.89 2.20
Edinburgh 3.82 1.24 2.60
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 13 – 3 10.40 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 19 – 22 7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Sep 13 Leinster 17.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.42 12.73 1.70
Roosters 12.14 12.25 -0.10
Panthers 6.47 -0.13 6.60
Raiders 5.81 7.06 -1.20
Rabbitohs 5.72 2.85 2.90
Eels 3.48 2.80 0.70
Sharks -0.23 1.81 -2.00
Knights -0.43 -5.92 5.50
Warriors -2.68 -5.17 2.50
Wests Tigers -2.95 -0.18 -2.80
Sea Eagles -3.40 1.05 -4.40
Dragons -4.28 -6.14 1.90
Bulldogs -6.86 -2.52 -4.30
Cowboys -7.01 -3.95 -3.10
Titans -10.39 -12.99 2.60
Broncos -11.80 -5.53 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 12 – 25 -16.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 38 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 16 – 22 -6.90 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 14 – 18 6.70 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 32 – 34 2.10 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 6 – 14 -3.70 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 24 – 18 11.40 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 23 – 22 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 10 Rabbitohs -6.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 11 Sea Eagles -1.50
3 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 11 Panthers 5.00
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 12 Raiders -8.10
5 Titans vs. Broncos Sep 12 Titans 3.40
6 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 12 Roosters 14.60
7 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 13 Storm 21.40
8 Sharks vs. Warriors Sep 13 Sharks 6.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.13 15.13 0.00
Canterbury 8.40 8.40 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 8.21 8.21 0.00
Auckland 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.47 6.47 0.00
North Harbour 2.87 2.87 -0.00
Waikato 1.31 1.31 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.91 0.91 0.00
Otago -4.03 -4.03 -0.00
Taranaki -4.42 -4.42 -0.00
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.71 -8.71 0.00
Manawatu -10.57 -10.57 0.00
Southland -14.04 -14.04 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 Canterbury -2.50
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 Wellington -2.20
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 Auckland -7.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 Tasman -20.30
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 Northland 4.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 Bay of Plenty -9.60
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Hawke’s Bay -11.90

 

September 1, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

As an indication of the care needed at present in determining home ground advantage, the comprehensive scores site flashscore.com.au still has the Rebels v Waratahs game as being played in Melbourne. (Click on the match result to see the scorers and times and match details at the bottom.) Fortunately I checked beforehand that it was to be played in Sydney so I gave the Waratahs home ground advantage and predicted them to win. Otherwise I would have predicted the Rebels, even if played on a neutral ground.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.90 4.67 -1.80
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -3.26 -5.52 2.30
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.69 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 31 – 14 22.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 38 – 32 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 Rebels 10.40
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 Reds 2.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.90 7.99 3.90
Saracens 8.31 9.34 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.97 0.17 6.80
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Bath 0.62 1.10 -0.50
Gloucester 0.27 0.58 -0.30
Bristol -0.21 -2.77 2.60
Northampton Saints -1.79 0.25 -2.00
Harlequins -1.83 -0.81 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -4.85 -1.76 -3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.31 -2.69 -4.60
London Irish -8.13 -5.51 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 40 – 7 9.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 30 – 17 3.40 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 59 – 7 20.70 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 46 – 30 8.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 12 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 23 – 27 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 Bristol -2.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 Exeter Chiefs -9.20
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 Saracens 10.60
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 Harlequins 2.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 Sale Sharks -7.30
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 Gloucester 12.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.57 12.20 4.40
Munster 11.14 10.73 0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Edinburgh 4.28 1.24 3.00
Ulster 3.66 1.89 1.80
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 15 – 3 6.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 20 – 41 -4.90 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 10 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 49 – 12 14.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 29 – 20 7.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 9 – 16 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 Leinster 10.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 Edinburgh 7.10

 

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