Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

July 7, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.47 12.25 1.20
Storm 12.49 12.73 -0.20
Raiders 5.97 7.06 -1.10
Eels 5.63 2.80 2.80
Panthers 2.76 -0.13 2.90
Rabbitohs 2.72 2.85 -0.10
Sharks 2.40 1.81 0.60
Sea Eagles 1.17 1.05 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.06 -0.18 0.20
Knights -2.07 -5.92 3.90
Cowboys -5.31 -3.95 -1.40
Bulldogs -5.49 -2.52 -3.00
Dragons -5.88 -6.14 0.30
Warriors -6.73 -5.17 -1.60
Broncos -9.03 -5.53 -3.50
Titans -14.17 -12.99 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 02 25 – 27 3.70 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 03 22 – 16 12.70 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Cowboys Jul 03 42 – 4 10.50 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 04 10 – 40 -12.90 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jul 04 26 – 16 1.30 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 04 12 – 19 0.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 05 12 – 14 6.20 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 05 10 – 26 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 09 Roosters -16.80
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -2.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 10 Rabbitohs 2.70
4 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 11 Panthers -0.40
5 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 11 Bulldogs -1.50
6 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 11 Storm -4.50
7 Knights vs. Eels Jul 12 Eels -5.70
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 12 Sea Eagles -7.10

 

July 4, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 1

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Introduction

This proved a bit easier to set up than I expected. I was able to use the code for setting up Super Rugby Aotearoa.

I gave the Force a rating of -10 as a new team which has been my normal approach over many competitions. And yes, I know that the Reds have already played and won, but my predictions are exactly what they would have been before the game. At least I have got in before the Brumbies versus the Rebels.

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.67 4.67 0.00
Reds -0.31 -0.31 0.00
Rebels -5.52 -5.52 0.00
Waratahs -7.12 -7.12 0.00
Force -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 03 Reds 11.30
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jul 04 Brumbies 14.70

 

June 30, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.27 15.15 0.10
Chiefs 6.97 7.94 -1.00
Hurricanes 6.78 8.31 -1.50
Blues 6.57 5.39 1.20
Highlanders 0.98 -0.22 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 27 27 – 24 11.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 28 18 – 13 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jul 04 Crusaders -9.80
2 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 05 Chiefs 4.70

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.84 12.25 1.60
Storm 12.12 12.73 -0.60
Raiders 6.38 7.06 -0.70
Eels 4.43 2.80 1.60
Panthers 2.32 -0.13 2.50
Rabbitohs 2.21 2.85 -0.60
Sea Eagles 1.66 1.05 0.60
Sharks 1.56 1.81 -0.20
Wests Tigers 0.50 -0.18 0.70
Knights -2.56 -5.92 3.40
Cowboys -4.11 -3.95 -0.20
Bulldogs -4.98 -2.52 -2.50
Dragons -6.30 -6.14 -0.20
Warriors -7.23 -5.17 -2.10
Broncos -8.52 -5.53 -3.00
Titans -13.33 -12.99 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 20 – 12 -0.90 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Jun 26 50 – 6 21.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jun 26 26 – 12 21.00 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 27 32 – 20 -0.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 27 12 – 30 9.20 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 27 25 – 24 -0.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jun 28 22 – 40 4.10 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 6 – 34 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 02 Roosters 3.70
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 03 Raiders 12.70
3 Eels vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Eels 10.50
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -12.90
5 Warriors vs. Broncos Jul 04 Warriors 1.30
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 04 Wests Tigers 0.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 05 Sea Eagles 6.20
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 05 Rabbitohs -7.20

 

June 23, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.92 15.15 0.80
Blues 7.35 5.39 2.00
Hurricanes 6.78 8.31 -1.50
Chiefs 6.31 7.94 -1.60
Highlanders 0.20 -0.22 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 20 12 – 24 5.90 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 21 25 – 39 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Blues 11.70
2 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 28 Crusaders 14.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.27 12.25 2.00
Storm 11.10 12.73 -1.60
Raiders 6.50 7.06 -0.60
Eels 4.31 2.80 1.50
Rabbitohs 2.73 2.85 -0.10
Sea Eagles 2.68 1.05 1.60
Panthers 1.81 -0.13 1.90
Sharks 0.54 1.81 -1.30
Wests Tigers -0.61 -0.18 -0.40
Knights -1.88 -5.92 4.00
Bulldogs -3.87 -2.52 -1.40
Cowboys -4.79 -3.95 -0.80
Warriors -6.21 -5.17 -1.00
Dragons -6.73 -6.14 -0.60
Broncos -7.33 -5.53 -1.80
Titans -14.52 -12.99 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 18 27 – 6 5.90 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 19 40 – 12 11.80 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 19 21 – 14 -8.90 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 20 8 – 20 -4.90 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Jun 20 36 – 20 5.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 20 10 – 24 -7.10 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 21 6 – 14 5.20 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 21 20 – 18 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 Rabbitohs -0.90
2 Storm vs. Warriors Jun 26 Storm 21.80
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jun 26 Roosters 21.00
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 27 Knights -0.90
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 27 Broncos 9.20
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 27 Raiders -0.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jun 28 Sea Eagles 4.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 Wests Tigers -3.30

 

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June 16, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.15 15.15 0.00
Hurricanes 7.55 8.31 -0.80
Chiefs 7.52 7.94 -0.40
Blues 6.15 5.39 0.80
Highlanders 0.20 -0.22 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 13 28 – 27 -3.70 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 30 – 20 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 20 Chiefs 5.90
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 21 Crusaders -3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.85 12.25 1.60
Storm 11.90 12.73 -0.80
Raiders 7.20 7.06 0.10
Eels 4.74 2.80 1.90
Sea Eagles 1.99 1.05 0.90
Rabbitohs 1.92 2.85 -0.90
Panthers 1.01 -0.13 1.10
Sharks 0.76 1.81 -1.00
Wests Tigers -1.22 -0.18 -1.00
Knights -2.64 -5.92 3.30
Bulldogs -4.09 -2.52 -1.60
Cowboys -4.18 -3.95 -0.20
Warriors -5.40 -5.17 -0.20
Broncos -6.57 -5.53 -1.00
Dragons -7.16 -6.14 -1.00
Titans -14.08 -12.99 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Jun 11 20 – 18 11.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 12 37 – 26 -2.60 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jun 12 16 – 10 5.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 13 32 – 12 17.60 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jun 13 12 – 26 -12.20 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 13 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 14 6 – 42 -16.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 14 30 – 16 -10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 18 Knights 5.90
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 19 Rabbitohs 11.80
3 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 19 Storm -8.90
4 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 20 Dragons -4.90
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Jun 20 Wests Tigers 5.00
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 20 Roosters -7.10
7 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 21 Raiders 5.20
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 21 Sharks 4.90

 

June 9, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.15 15.15 0.00
Hurricanes 8.31 8.31 0.00
Chiefs 7.94 7.94 0.00
Blues 5.39 5.39 0.00
Highlanders -0.22 -0.22 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 13 Chiefs -3.70
2 Blues vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 Blues 1.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.90 12.25 0.70
Storm 11.72 12.73 -1.00
Raiders 7.00 7.06 -0.10
Eels 4.70 2.80 1.90
Sea Eagles 2.53 1.05 1.50
Sharks 1.85 1.81 0.00
Rabbitohs 1.73 2.85 -1.10
Panthers 1.05 -0.13 1.20
Wests Tigers -1.02 -0.18 -0.80
Knights -2.46 -5.92 3.50
Bulldogs -3.15 -2.52 -0.60
Cowboys -3.47 -3.95 0.50
Warriors -6.11 -5.17 -0.90
Broncos -7.12 -5.53 -1.60
Dragons -8.25 -6.14 -2.10
Titans -13.89 -12.99 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 04 0 – 59 -14.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 05 26 – 0 10.10 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Jun 05 22 – 8 11.60 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 06 19 – 16 4.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 06 16 – 26 -2.40 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jun 07 18 – 34 11.90 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 28 – 23 -12.60 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 22 – 2 3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Jun 11 Sea Eagles 11.70
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 12 Cowboys -2.60
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jun 12 Eels 5.70
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 13 Rabbitohs 17.60
5 Knights vs. Storm Jun 13 Storm -12.20
6 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 13 Raiders -6.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 14 Roosters -16.00
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 14 Sharks -10.10

 

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